Emmerson Share Chat (EML)

He said in one of his last interviews he wasnt able to fully disclose all that was happening.

Good to get some action and excitement brewing here. Potential is there. All this silence for good reason?

This is the fund that was amended to remove ‘actively supporting fertiliser plants’ (paraphrased), because the EU felt funding fertiliser would go against its climate plans.

However, there’s funding activity going on. The link below is a further deal combining a number of gulf sovereign wealth funds (incl. Kuwait, Abu Dhabi) and African funds to invest in Africa, announced last Monday:

https://www.swfinstitute.org/news/93102/food-security-three-swfs-sign-a-deal-in-rabat-for-african-investment

And at the same meeting of the Africa Sovereign Investors Forum (ASIF), King Mohammed talked about investing more to utilise Africa’s own resources, including mentioning fertiliser.

Unless there’s a massive eff up, this project should take off in a big way because it’s in scope for all these initiatives push) and to feed OCP’s expansion (pull).

The silence is leaving us in the shareholder doldrums but there is good activity in the industry background.

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/06/349944/g7-counters-chinas-belt-and-road-with-investments-in-africa

Since the board is quiet matador, tell me what you have forgiven me for?

Very interesting to bring Sou, into this b-board. Doesn’t the mine require LNG and Sound Energy will eventual be selling LNG by the truck load and EML’s mine is right next to a highway on-route to a major city.

I have brought this scenario to this b-board already.

Glad we are soon to July, nearer to the critical announcement whenever that will be?

Its going to be alright. I forgive you.

Matador. Ideas did not 'disagree' with my post, and of course I only referred to the element in his post which was a 'little' critical of EML BOD.So your 'almost certainly' is 'not in my head space', but out of your fingertips. Get educated. Now to important matters. The 'fertiliser' comms from EU must resonate with Moroccan Gov t. The Country has not been critical of Putin, but will be mindful that it does not want to make an enemy of Eu, and USA. It probably has no feelings for UK one way or t'other, and probably sees BoJo, like the majority of countries, as a fool. Now is the ideal time for Graham et al, to actively communicate with Authorities, possibly with the help of UK Govt Minister, to ask questions of Morocco. No EIA is becoming more than a joke, and EML BOD remain silent, except for the occasional 'tweet'.

They need to invest geopolitically to retain influence in the African continent and in other developing nations - agree seems remote but it was scheduled on the EU Council agenda and G7 has announced a broader $600bn investment fund overnight.

See: G7 summit: Leaders detail $600bn plan to rival China's Belt and Road initiative https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61947325

With Morocco and UK business ties and African Development Bank talking about Africa, does EU really fit into this story? Can't see EU dishing out free money to Africa or making sense of its own policies until 2035 at the earliest.

A possible insight into the possible headwind on ESIA and wider progression:

The draft minutes of the European Council meeting (23 and 24 June 2022) included a plan "to support the development of fertiliser manufacturing capacity and alternatives in developing countries" (credit:
@Tat_TvamAsi), which presumably could include co-funding which would be worth holding off for if this was known to to be upcoming. Nothing worse than taking out a loan only to find it could have come cheaper from the EU.

The final text[1] dilutes this to, “calls on the Commission and the Member States…to work on initiatives together with international partners to support the development of manufacturing capacity of inputs in developing countries, in particular sustainable fertilisers.”; much less clear.

The EU Commission had explicitly opposed the draft text, warning that actively supporting fertiliser production in developing nations would be inconsistent with the EU energy and environment policies, so no formal EU funding then. [2]

If we assume that the ESIA will not be released until the project obtains state controlled a) funding, b) 10-15% investment, c) offtake at favourable prices and d) delivery contractors, then getting certainty on that wider geo-political issue may now be helpful in giving enough clarity for the state to now push on and commit to funding and backfilling what it needs for all these new processing plants.

[1] https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/57442/2022-06-2324-euco-conclusions-en.pdf at para 9

[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-split-over-fertiliser-plants-poorer-nations-food-crisis-bites-2022-06-20/

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2022/06/349908/morocco-to-establish-a-fertilizer-plant-in-guatemala

Casablanca - The President of the Republic of Guatemala, Alejandro Giammattei, announced that Morocco has proposed the construction of a fertilizer factory on Guatemalan territory, with the aim of opening the door to distributing fertilizers generated in the Moroccan facility to Latin America.

Ive been adding small amounts from the 5's up to the 9's .
Average is about 7 now , so I'll sit tight and see what comes .
Should have traded some at nearly 10 , but you never do , cos you assume there's an RNS coming !
Note to self , next time it hits 10 without any news , sell 20% lol
Hopefully , next time (if )it does it will be because of news .

At least this bb does have some life to it. I'm probably in the same boat as Ideas - my first buys in the 7s but also 9s but then I'm less of a trader. If I like the mcap and prospects, I take a position (probably should enter more like a trader tbf!) and then wait for outcomes (hopefully good ones!). I benchmark Khemisset against Muga (HFR) and know that project quite well. Both are pre-project equity, Muga more advanced as its about to start digging declines though a more complex beast on permitting (its process plant is in another district so will need construction permit for there - its more local routine stuff so should land shortly), but Muga is only 500ktpa and I believe capex will be c.EUR 450m. Both projects are Q1 cost curve and high margin and prime location for premium markets, simple conventional mining, decline access to reserves over 30 year potential. What EMLs latest peer group comp didn't do in its latest presentation was point out Highfields NPV used 30 years whereas EMLs used 19 years yet our NPV wasnt far off. Haven't checked but I think as it stands today, HFRs mcap is about 4x EML and hasn't yet received its project equity.

EMLs BoD have alot of experience and success so confident they will do a good job and deliver but I agree, need to save the accolades until we see those solid RNSs landing and the elephant in the room is the final permit (environmental) and ESIA approval. I have to say, HFR jumping +25% on obtaining a routine local authority construction permit is a sign of just how oversold the stock was.

Hopefully we are only a few days away from an update. I will be interested to hear about the progress pre mining, (electrics, water etc). Looking back through the previous updates I wonder just how close we are now to the environmental permit.

My guess is the further drill hole for underground tailings storage may have been something they have requested from EML earlier this year. Hopefully this has now being answered.

My take on price is that we went strong on marketing to boost the price, presumably to favourably close a deal or to continue to move up the NPV, where Orior and Liberum’s notes are both actually (former) and in effect (latter) paid marketing.

For whatever reason either that deal has taken longer to land or the ESIA was expected to continue momentum and hasn’t come through - hopefully not costing us price in that deal. Overlaid on all of that was the war, which took things to new heights.

Per dshox below, that came too soon for the substance, which isn’t here. Either the elastic limit on patience or the world equity dive has intervened (or both have) and there isn’t anything to support the price absent an RNS.

Pity I picked up a few around 9p ahead of the annual results as this would be far more favourable. Ha ha.

Fingers crossed, the substance will out in an RNS and then the price can run up the flag pole as we all expect.

Testpack, I don’t disagree with what you took from it but as it can across that way, for anyone else, I’m not criticising the board, as such, more trying to challenge my own thinking.

I’m not saying they’ve made any good or bad decisions - I just don’t know - but I’m interested to bounce ideas of others while we have the current information gap.

So: neutral towards the board, intending to be constructively challenging and supportive of the stock.

I’m not concerning myself with only saying positives because, as someone else has said below, I think the main factor for next movements will be substance and milestones rather than sentiment. The spring of future promise can only coil so much!

just the same one or two (same person?) IDs out to play whenever there's been no "news"

sp is far into oversold so if just a couple of PIs can be persuaded to dump into nothingness volume, its possible to snaffle a decent sized buy

Test pack please keep your views on what I believe or dont believe in the realms of your own head space.

When I have a view on a particular matter Ill post it and leave no doubt.

I have zero concerns about Emmerson.

And what helps share prices drift down completely in line with global markets exactly?

Matador, you replied to Ideas post on SOU, with this ' Almost certainly'. If you read Ideas post you will gather that what he is saying is that EML management is probably not talking about the right things with Moroccan authorities and EML have not built relationships with authorities. and is a little critical. Ergo, you must be a little critical.

I am not an expert on Market Makers but do people really think they have as much influence on the share price as other factors affecting this share (finance, environmental permit) and the markets globally? EML often seems to drift downwards after a period of no news and this seems no different.

Mr Market determined to keep this one capped. SP went over 10p too quickly, now back to almost pre-war. I expect MMs wants to pressure this into the 6s before any decent RNSs so will keep powder dry until I see they've run out of puff (or time).

But they are so many cheap good firm in the market and they are making big money and are down to silly prices at buy now prices . Smith DS , HSBC , Persimmons house builders all down . But it is that question do you buy a share that has little risk or buy Emmerson. Over the long run they all look good but one has more risk and makes no money at this moment .

What went so wrong to make the share price drop ? I did seem to be on the cards as the share price did go up to quickly to 9 .... Now it looks a little better to see management to think about doing some insider buying or do they still feel it is to expensive at 7.20 .....
You all ways like to see management put their money were their mouth is ... If they think it is a good price at this time they will buy shares in a golden egg . So may be it is not cheap enough for them or something is not right !
Some people say 5.30 is the bottom , so a bit more pain to go . Tomorrow is another day of pain .