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ZNWD AGM statement this morning - my takes:
Excellent AGM statement in general: ZNWD clearly delivering.
But for me, the key standout news is that test work confirms ability to produce battery grade hydroxide.
We knew the asset could produce both carbonate and fluoride,
and were waiting to see news on hydroxide. This makes the asset a lot more attractive to external parties.
Secondly, I would highlight the statement which confirms my calculations that the exploration license indeed adds a substantial 50% to group-wide resource- market had totally overlooked the significance of this.
Unless you're hungry for the money stay put and patience, ( not too long now) .
Question though what do you do on takeoff news sell?
I'm not as have been here too long through the ups and downs seeing it through whatever happens:-)
Gla
News related to funding would be good (as would offtake of course) and I suspect the market feels the same.
Here comes the bidding war for our lithium :
https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/auto-components/chinese-battery-investment-in-france-to-create-1000-jobs/83862548
I make that possible customer 31 oddish in Europe , 2,000 tonnes each ( LOL ) and thats 62,000 tonnes of Li per annum .
PS : Ant , Battery alliance funding news as well i reckon .
Can't help but feel Panglossian about these facts Ant .
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436538-lithium-miners-news-for-the-month-of-june-2021?mail_subject=matt-bohlsen-lithium-miners-news-for-the-month-of-june-2021&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436720-lithium-junior-miners-news-for-the-month-of-june-2021?mail_subject=matt-bohlsen-lithium-junior-miners-news-for-the-month-of-june-2021&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
Morning Ant , there must be a reason for KC to bring the Nasdaq listing forward to July , they had intended late this year . I suspect a steady news flow , firstly the Cez Skoda JV Giga . I Can see an offtake iminent after that , and then an update of double production and new numbers to be targeted for the DFS including increased price of Tin and Lithium the NPV will be enormous , This sort of news warrants the earlier listing on Nasdaq . Then of course I smell a USA company Tesla offtake , a very good reason to be listed in USA proper early .
Actually that should be 'panglossian' I suspect. Or 'a bit more panglossian'. Is the noun the same as the adjective?
On a more prosaic note, is there any certainty about what news item is coming next?
Reminds me of that poem, 'Desiderata', that was popularised to the point of being seen as cheesy. I have a pretty doom laden perspective on the world these days and my prognosis isn't good. For the human world but especially for the natural world (and the former as a consequence of the latter). But perhaps it's all inevitable and is as it ought to be. I should become a bit more of a panglossianist.
Pangloss - character in Voltaire's book Candide. A philosopher who thought 'everything was for the best in this best of all possible worlds.'
Panglossian - a new word for me, but I shall certainly use it again, very apt for some of these BB's I'd say!!!
Not sure, but all these new formats of share package for the US market are only going to squeeze supply further. Whilst I’m not quite as Panglossian about the short term share price as some (albeit I do hope it gets back above the pound mark), I think buying from deeper pockets will have a significant effect on all the traded markets.
yes started around 2:30, do we think its US investors waking up and buying ??
looking lively all of a sudden...
Thanks Malik, just wanted confirmation of resource size for ZNWD , not sure the rest was actually necessary but hey , each to their own
I am showing EV/NPV metrics which naturally corrects for resource size.
In any case, regarding your specific comment - that’s not particularly relevant in any case.
The reason being: The very bulk of value assigned to a lithium stock is from the mine plan not the total resource. This is because the unused resource is valued at very low multiple since no capex has been assigned to its extraction. This is very well seen in the valuation of Savannah. Savannah has a group resource of 0.38Mt LCE ( yes v small) - they own 100%. Their planned usage of that resource is 75% - or their PFS assumes they will produce 0.29mt over life of mine vs 0.38Mt of group resource.
Market cap of Savannah? £59m
Do the same analysis for EMH. 7.7Mt resource, of which we own 49%, so 3.8Mt effective share. Our market cap £139m. Your way of thinking would suggest EMH should trade at 10x the market cap of Savannah (3.8/0.38). That’s obviously not the case; it trades 2.4x the mcap of Sav only.
Now back to EMH. The reason for this is the EMH/Geomet PFS is based on annual production of 25ktpa over 21y (yes I know talks of doubling it - but then that doesn’t come for free - need to adjust capex up). 25ktpa*21 = 0.53Mt of Cinovec resource assumed to be utilised in mine plan out of 7.7Mt. That’s very little but again, think of the capex requirements to use the whole resource…. This dilemma is very seen with Vulcan by the way which has an enourmous 15Mt resource. But then as a company l, will probably never be able to consume it,
Now let’s do Zinnwald. Zinnwald flagship resource is 0.76Mt, now 100% owned. Their FS mine plan is based on 0.22mt of that, so 29% of resource os assumed to be utilised over life of mine.
Now, Zinnwald group just added a week ago a massive exploration license nearby which raises group Li by 35%. So ZNWD now has 1.04Mt of groupwide LCE resource at 100%.
1.04Mt @100% vs EMH 3.8Mt (7.7mt @49%). Just adding this for reference, to also correct misconceptions about the 10x resource I keep reading, Under your way of seeing things, the resource of Zinnwald (utilised +unutilised) is not 10x smaller - but actually 3.6x smaller (3.8/1.04). Again, as just described this means very little when thinking of valuation - since it’s utilised resource economics that matters.
Malik isnt ZNWD roughly a tenth of the size resource wise compared to EMH, the latest presentations of both ZNWD & EMH both indicate this to be the case
(PS: for Bacanora, this is priced at share p as is today; not at 65p takeout valuation. At takeout p, for BCN, you’d would need to add something like 8-9pp to the shown ratio).
I did a chart this morning, comparing the valuations of key lithium stocks (see link below).
I posted this for Zinnwald, but useful for all key names on space.
EMH scores well.
Expect a doubling of the valuation of EMH on offtake, to match valuations of BCN and Piedmont. This assumes close to spot hydroxide p.
https://twitter.com/malik49977264/status/1408326105879257089?s=21