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Yeah I think no one can know exactly what timeline looks
Like - it could surprise us in either direction tbh
Thanks Tom, I like your thought process....đ
But, a slight down side for me is the timing, in particular taking Rpks post of this morning into consideration, which would put divs out to approx 28/29.....đ”âđ«
Https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/lithium-tezba-cinovec-cesko-krusne-hory.A240315_191015_domaci_kori
Mining at CĂnovec is a long-term run, so the current prices are not the key. Rather, it is necessary to think about how the price will develop in the future. It is obvious that the demand for lithium will gradually increase, but it can also be expected that it will increase and the supply of lithium on the market, so making the final calculation (whether mining will pay off, editor's note) will not be easy," the prime minister's adviser told MF DNES. This is what the company Geomet, which wants to mine lithium in CĂnovec, is dealing with right now. A majority stake of 51 percent is held by SeveroÄeskĂ© doly, which falls under the semi-state ÄEZ, and the rest by the Australian mining company EMH, which conducted the first explorations at CĂnovec. It will become clearer in the spring. Whether the project really makes economic sense is to be shown by a feasibility study. "We received its first version as planned at the end of last year, it is several thousand pages of technical text. Now, together with external experts, we are still working on further clarification of some points. We want to have the next version of the study in the spring of this year," ÄEZ spokesperson Roman told MF DNES Landlord. If the company subsequently decided on the project, it would first have to apply for an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). According to GazdĂk, this could start this year. According to the original plans, lithium mining at CĂnovec should have started as early as 2023. However, the project was delayed and currently, even in the case of an ideal scenario, the start of full mining would not happen before the end of 2027. "It will depend on the speed of the permitting processes. At the moment the schedule includes the construction of the plant in 2026 and 2027," added GazdĂk.
Hey Mick, I'm family with the Sibanye transaction you're referring to and on paper that's the sort of multiple range I think ought to be taking place for us as well but putting on my realistic har I could certainly imagine a scenario where we don't quite make those numbers. I hope I'm wrong, but even shy of that my holding north of a million shares here still doesn't make me too sad
My preferred outcome though, of course, is that we make it to production. In my estimation even in phase one we're selling 40ktpa at $25000 a tonne costing us say $5000 in OP. Super rough figures, but that's 800 mill in profit half of which is ours. 49% is ours but I'm happy to bring that down from 400 to 300 mill to allow for extra costs and error. I'm hoping and expecting there to be around 250 million shares floating about at that stage so that's still $1.20 divi per share after repayments. Pick a PE ratio you like and you have a number that might be somewhere near my guess
Again, I'm not trying to convince anyone. Please do as you please guys @Skelly @sairbrecht et al. I haven't been on a ride like this before but it just makes too much sense to me. I don't want to be kicking myself later when I'm telling myself I should've believed my own analysis
TomC - while I absolutely love your enthusiasm and logic in your strategy, can I query your 'worst case scenario'. As you take the management guidance at face value, do you not also take their 'fair market value' declaration at the same face value?
Based on the Keliber buyout by Sibanye-Stillwater, of which has been quoted as a basis of any buyout in EMH's case, there would be multiples of 10's (*15-30) to the current value. And you think that's worse case, please enlighten with your thoughts of best case as you may just give me a good reason to look beyond my hold period of March 2026?
Hi Skelly, hey what made you think I'm grateful for the drop in price?
Mate I'm not grateful for it but then I'm not too interested in doing anything but extracting maximum value so I'm here for a couple more years yet to see us get to production hopefully. If we get bought out before then, that's my worst case scenario I'm envisaging. Who knows, I might be wrong but I feel like I'm taking a test back at school but someone's given me the answers ahead of time so I want to increase my holding.
It's not a fact. I have no guarantees. And sure, if you gave me the choice I'd prefer the share price to be ten times what it is today but it's not too relevant considering my strategy. I'm not in a big hurry at all; it's just that my personal reading of the situation is very bullish on the medium to long term because I feel the risks have all but been mitigated and the upside is enormous. The only thing I can't be confident about is the exact timeline of each box betting ticked but that's fine for my person situation.
I feel like it's a bit like, if you traveled back in time ten plus years and hadn't really followed bitcoin but vaguely knew it'd be worth something like what it is today, you'd be piling everything you could into it and just happily waiting. It's not the same but that's sort of how I feel.
You guys decide for yourselves though, I have no need to argue with anyone because all of this is just my reading of the situation, none of it is certain besides the fact that I've had these communications with KC plenty of times, and I for one am comfortable with my holding and want to increase it
BYD's chairman predicted a month ago that China's monthly NEV penetration rate would exceed 50 percent within this year, and now he expects that figure to be seen within the next three months
Not forgetting BYD are present in Hungary with a new plant also being built, they certainly have the appetite for mass distribution throughout Europe.
I see the $68 million Nevada geothermal plant is in the news again.
Itâs yet another reminder how difficult breaking new ground is with projects.
With the stated âglobally significant tin resourceâ I was curious to hear a comment on this yootoob video at 16:33 onwards:
https://youtu.be/fpJ8VGpUKUU?si=1CsJwx8U8rBo4ZrC
- Indonesia restricting tin output and largest mine in Myanmar is currently closed down⊠global squeeze on tin? Maybe the timeline here a little long but good for EUâs long term supplyâŠ
âI think we can expect some sort of update before too much longerâ
Update? How about a DFS? Okay, an update about the DFS is probably coming before the quarter is out. Iâd bloody well hope so! lol
Why would I bother calling him - you said it yourself, âthereâs only so much he can sayâ⊠and I know heâs not going to reveal all to some random caller.
As has been said, it would be better to have the plan written down. I dunno, like a plan.
His word has absolutely no value anymore.
I don't care about what he says. Give it in writing. Preferably an ANN.
Yup.
Hi Tom, with all due respect, Iâve emailed Keith multiple times and never ever received a reply.
Iâm not doubting what you are saying and appreciate you sharing but if any news is due shortly then I suspect itâs a DFS delay and more than likely Thursday 28th March going by form!
Itâs not often I want to be proven so wrong, I am quite happy to swallow my pride and say I was wrong if it comes good. I am a HZM holder (whatâs left anyway) and Iâve seen mis-management and so I am very weary at the moment and frustrated.
I think like most I have am most frustrated by the lack of accountability and transparency. Things get delayed I get that, but the smoke and mirrors and lack of any identifiable timeline is criminal in my mind. Progress updates have not been issued since the december RNS, again this is just not acceptable in my eyes.
Hey why don't you give him a call and have a chat yourself?
He shared plenty of helpful insights with me that he was able to, about DFS as well as plenty of other stuff and it was all very reasonable to me. He's firmly focused on bringing the project to production above all, and since raising cash isn't on the cards or necessary any time soon (other equity raises have been strategic) the short term share price fluctuations play second fiddle to progress, albeit frustrating for shareholders including KC. I think we can expect some sort of update before too much longer, but there's only so much Keith can share.
Honestly, just pick up the phone, it's not that hard
So TomC, what did KC say when you pressed him on the lack of news about the DFS? That some shareholders are less than impressed - that there seems to be little in the way of concrete timelines to which EMH and his success (or otherwise) can be measured? Or was it a cosy chat where he says all the things he usually says about how wonderful it all is.
Forgive me for being sceptical.
Point taken @ghin
I'll use the remedy button above.
No point arguing with him jimb, his response will just pollute the board. It's one of those brain-dead angry man who likes to eat conspiracy theories from Trump and other sources of Putin financed misinformation sources.
We beg to differ,
Ukraine falls, Orban holds the key to Putin expanding into Hungary, Trump will withdraw from NATO - I dread to think where that will lead - You might have seen both Polish parties have visited the US pleading for funding to Ukraine as have many European house speaker equivalents sent a urgent request
I did watch him speak for an hour and ten minutes last week, the polls reflect his performance - a person with a stutter will often get momentary brain freeze, it's the condition and given his age he is remarkable.
The man is a senile lunatic.
Just watch him speak & his corruption fuinding a proxy / money washing war in the Ukraine.
But of course our Li SP profits are more important than a global war
Good end to the week,
Happy has changed his tune with Joe Biden's continued backing for the energy and transport disruption:
just five days ago Happy posted:
10 Mar 2024 13:29
How have we got to a chat board of people backing Joe Biden.
The manâs a senile lunatic,
How is he any benefit to Li shares in the EU?
'How have we got to talking about Joe Biden' and then he drops $2.26bn funding - its like a Homer Simpson moment, nice that we agree happy all around, and yes that does show confidence in lithium mining,
Good old 'slow but sure Joe Biden' committed to the policies he was voted in on.
How is he any benefit to Li shares in the EU?
Well Happy didn't elaborate on that, but if GM have secured lithium they have security and pricing that can be priced in for years to come that doesn't have the risks of geopolitics and trade agreements - a LOCAL supply.
I have been in and out a few times here so not always up to date. But a few years ago did Keith not drop quite a few updates and would he engage with shareholders?
It does seem a lot of companies now see share holders as mushrooms and not that we have are hard earned cash here. But its not often you see the bod getting removed for bad management. But there again i went though KDNC with Lenigas give regualar updates and that got us no where.
Thanks Tom & GM for your input....đ
It is getting very difficult to maintain confidence levels in this project, in the main, because the lack of information (honest updates) drains the will to believe. So what if the DFS has been delayed for the betterment of the numbers, so what if NDA's prevent giving details of offtake discussions. THIS DOES NOT PREVENT KEEPING US IN THE PICTURE....đ€
Thanks for posting Tom
Soon be UK Tax year end ISA top ups . and new Tax year ISA shelter those profits .đ