We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
" why isn't this standard operating procedure??? why wasnt it done a year ago??? I"
because you need to be certain it'll continue to flow - you need several months of production data to be able to come up with any reasonable data forecast on reservoir performance. They'd look very silly if they bought the kit and it went to water in 3 months......................
dont worry Herbert, they have said (yet again) they are going to drill Keddington next year, I think that's 3 or 4 years in a row they have said that, eventually it will be true. wrt to a gas micro-turbine to replace the diesel generator, why isn't this standard operating procedure??? why wasnt it done a year ago??? I hope EDR has learnt lessons from Wressle and does not repeat the mistakes with Biscathorpe or Kedddington.
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/1000KW-1MW-Gas-Power-Generator-Set_60737185871.html?spm=a2700.pccps_detail.0.0.3c9a44703ztRvu
Gas Turbine generators, How much? Maybe need something bigger and made in U.K. possibly, but they are available
"Disappointed with Resolution and Endeavour, ok there's an extension of 12m but, at this point in time, there seems the only plan is to give up if we don't get a partner."
Without a partner this is very tough - several million needed for a 3D and then $ 20mm++ for a well - and that's just the start. You'd be betting the whole company
Well rightly or wrongly, I feel the results are a bit of an anticlimax.
Great that they're showing a healthy profit and a rough P/E of around 5. But I was hoping for more and more actual deadlines on gas monetisation at Wressle, rather than plans we kind of already knew about.
Disappointed with Resolution and Endeavour, ok there's an extension of 12m but, at this point in time, there seems the only plan is to give up if we don't get a partner.
Fracking is currently fracked up! So thats long term future now, if ever.
Awaiting planning for everything else not Wressle. !!
So back to work and I'll put away the party hats and poppers, at least for a while.
GLA etc and fingers crossed for planning and gas progress.
Well the average oil prices been high ish..gas been high.... I'm hoping for around 2.5 to.3mill profit....
Plz mark everybody's looking for some positive news about gas pipe line to gas grid not what u hoping for...what has been DONE
getting feed up with what u planning to do what have u done...
B nice to finish up...need some good going forward numbers....been a very long wait for a lot of us LTH's
Good luck all
gg
Thanks Mirasol. I'm not sure how reliable my info is, but I found something online dated May '22 which said there were only 2.02 Bcf of remaining reserves, and that 92.5% of the original Ceres reserves had been recovered to that date. This suggests that the original reserves were 26.9 Bcf gross, so your 25 Bcf is about right. Since Egdon owns only 10% 0of Ceres, this means Egdon have (or had) 0.202 Bcf (202 Million cu. ft) of net gas remaining in May. I don't knw how long this will last but, assuming 4 Million cu. ft /'day (the average of your April and August figures) this might indicate about 500 days of remaining production from May. So we can perhaps expect production to end towards the end of 2023 or in early 2024, depending on the gas price is then.
Originally y I think they were aiming for around 25 Bcf recoverable - but I did see something not long after they started production that it might only last to 2017. I can't find any numbers for production to date
seems to have been shut in for most of 2021 and last NSTA numbers were 2mmscfpd in Aug but it was 6 mmscfd gross in April.
I found the following in Egdon's Jan 2022 Interim Results: "The Ceres gas field (Egdon 10%) is undergoing a late-life renaissance for the Company contributing material revenues and cash flow. During the period, Ceres net production averaged 54 boepd with gas prices averaging 184 p/therm or $123.5/boe (H1 2021: 24p/therm or $29.2/boe). A reassessment of the life of field economics has led to the reversal of a previous impairment. of £0.507 million." I estimate 54 boepd at 10% net is about 3.25 Million cubic feet of gas per day (100% gross figure). I wonder what the average gasp rice has been for the last 6 months but it's probably much better than 184 p/therm.
Thanks Mirasol. Do you know what the remaining reserves are at Ceres? From Egdon's 2021 annual report it appears that Egdon own 10% of P. 1241 which contains the Ceres gas field and is operated by Spirit Energy.
I think the operator was planing to abandon Ceres last year GP - but then times changed........
The small North Sea gas asset is a minority interest the Ceres gas field in the Southern North Sea. At current gas prices it's most definitely profitable but I don't think it's been stated how long its remaining reserves will last., but it's probably not very many years IMO.
Exactly. And isn't there some income from a small North Sea gas asset somewhere, which was going to be written off, but which, with current gas prices, might have gone into profit?
Am I being dumb, the company said back in May . “The material cash flow generated has been transformational, enabling the Company to become debt free and funded for all near-term commitments in parallel with considering further growth opportunities.” .
Yes the fracking moratorium is depressing, but the continuing output from Wressle must be good, judging from other companies’ reports and the future seems favourable given they are planning to pipe off gas (to reduce the need for flaring) which will enable them to uncork more of Wressle’s resources. I don’t really understand their North Sea assets but presumably there is shedloads of oil company money about looking for a windfall tax getout. My biggest worry would be a takeover big which would price in at below the breakeven point for us small investors. What’s not to like.
"I think there's a few opportunities around to consolidate a few juniors around Aim, including the Wressle 3. "
This is true but other than maybe Igas the others only bring small amounts of production and a lot of issues. And do you really want to be only in the UK - no fraccing , a Labour Govt on the medium term horizon. Offshore is expensive and risky for small oilers (see Europa's latest venture).
Not sure there are any easy answers
I think there's a few opportunities around to consolidate a few juniors around Aim, including the Wressle 3. Ok UJO seems to have the advertised money £10M + another £1M next week probably and could quite easily do a merge with Europa (If both BOD) wanted that?
Europa licking its Serenity wounds and limbo with Ireland and Morocco is vulnerable but has cash and more from Serenity soon. So would be a nice fit/merge
Egdon seem a good company with technical staff as well and cash presumably? Would also be a nice fit/merge or a 29.9% shareholding. I think fracking must come back someday, its too negatively political at the moment, but who knows in 2 to 10 years time when we still need fossils and the green energys are just not enough over the impeding winters of discontent.
Reabold, angus, ukog, mosman, arrow etc are all others some good ish some not as good. All have assets that are running now or can be developed with the right team of management and technicians. Cherry pick and develop could be a good policy, but if I was DB of UJO I'd be strategically buying a Wressle partber first to continue with cashflow and then pick up a solid development opportunity and use your own team ie Egdons ally or EOG take over.
Just my opinion and I'm no JR Ewing.
GLA DYOR etc
Uh. A long way to 8p ...
There have been positive changes recently in the SPs of some of the smaller AIM E&P Cos such as EDR, EOG and UJO. Is this to do with the unexpected bid for Hurricane, or merger mania, or perhaps even the better oil price lately. What do you think?
Sorry to steal your material but, Yes, the cnbc article you cite includes a quote by the CEO of BP who says “Energy prices “are approaching unaffordability,” with some people already “spending 50% of their disposable income on energy or higher,”.
The other part of the article says basically , if you think Winter 2022 will be bad then Winter 2023 will be worse because it will be difficult to refill gas storage with very depleted supply from Russia. There is also a reference to possible civil disturbance.
It seems like the only thing that is saving us no2 is reduced demand for oil and LNG From China due to the economic constraints of Zero COVID policy. A guy on Bloomberg said today, “just imagine what will happen to the oil and gas market the day China announces, or the the media get a whiff, that the zero covid policy is ending” he’s absolutely right it’s mayhem.
Must admit I have been aghast at the political leadership in both the US and UK over the past 20 years or so. The political class are basically a bunch of self serving, egomaniac, useless non-entities. Han****, today, sums it all up. The UK desperately needs to become energy self-sufficient to stave off the possibility of blackouts and to safeguard the pound. This means exploiting every possible avenue of energy exploitation, be it wind, solar, fracking, North Sea, or whatever. Yes, wind and solar, not for climate change reasons but to maximise the diversification of energy sources. The reason for my rant is not just Han**** but this (especially the section where the UN Secretary General calls any new funding for [fossil fuel] exploration "delusional" - he should be sacked straight away):
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/01/energy-crisis-next-winter-will-be-more-challenging-oil-ceos-warn.html
User 329. Are you a russian sympathiser? Do you feel the Ukrainian war is justified. Only 1 post so I'm guessing you expect this to be pulled on your potentially fake account. Please leave and do not return.
Putin apologist if not a Russian bot
Today Russia is blaming the U.K. for the damage to the Nordstream pipeline and “considering further action”. What action could that be, well firstly they could completely cut off processed diesel supplies to the U.K. earlier than expected. Russian exports are 18% of our supplies. Diesel prices are already heading up in anticipation of the bans, so diesel well north of 2.25 soon and a top up for food inflation since 25% of all lorry movements in the. U.K. are food related.
Alternatively there could be “accidental” damage to the U.K. / Norway gas pipeline which supplies 33% of our gas. So the edge of war and major electricity & gas blackouts in the U.K.
And Rishi Sunak has just put a moratorium on fracking! Doh.
Today the official long term weather predictions are that the hoped for mild winter (December to February) is unlikely and that periods of high pressure with low wind speeds and cold temperatures are on the cards. John Pettigrew, the head of the National Grid says a period of rolling blackouts, if we get a cold winter, is a “possibility” which is probably as alarmist as he’s allowed to be.
So if you’re a diesel consumer and you’ve got a can handy, fill it up and remember to darn those woolly jumpers
There is always the alternative, like propant squeezing. Where there’s a will there’s a way.