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Ranger, there is no discussion, just a torrent of half truths and conjecture by several negative posters, I will no doubt join in more once I get home or when echo releases some good news, depends which comes first though I suspect it will be the good news as I will not be home until the end of November.
Unlike the derampers I am not sitting at the computer waiting to parry and misrepresent any post they do not like.
Abz
Join in the discussion if you have anything meaningful to add.
Didn't you debating at school? You have to air the pros and cons of a situation to come to a conclusion. a discussion is much the same.
The situation is the one that the bondholders face at the moment and what possible outcomes there will be and there implications on Echo. I don't think they would play out a doom scenario as there is no win at the same time their not going to hand Echo a golden egg laying hen on a plate.
I don't want to seen any PI losing their shirt even you.
I do both. I think the company is likely to be materially out of trouble and progress as time goes on.
But I invested at aroud 0.6 and I don't fancy 0.5 or 0.3 because of a shares for interest deal that appears to not have been explained to the shareholders who voted for it. I'm asking for positives but even Digittt can't seem to find any. I'm glad we're actually discussing things that matter though.
I'm interested in your take on the bond/share situation.
Very strange we have so many posts speculating doom scenarios regards all the negatives yet should anyone dare to speculate on the positives they are shot down by these same posters,
Jaggers has a point but the bondholders won't be killing the company as it's still producing, but it will check the company somewhat. Keeps the BOD focused on the tasks at hand. Bit like telling kids to finish their main course before they can get any pudding
in 2025 the debt will still be there.
What do you think about Jaggers' point? Are these bondholders going to mercilessly crush the stock of a company that needs funds to develop and pay them back the much greater sum at maturity? Wouldn't they wait for a higher, more stable share price.
Also why did the shareholders vote for this, was it basically as you said that you were not informed about the real position so you assumed that it was this or bankruptcy? No one did research or demanded to know the real position?
So either way they get their interest and the SP returns to these levels not long after.
Not doomed but not in a good place either.
So we are doomed?
I don't think the bondholders will get less. They will simply short the share immediately on making the election / once the price their election is priced at is known, and then they'll deliver their shares into that short. Maybe there's a spread between the election price and the immediate market price, but there may not be.
intrigued for the reasons I gave....does not have to add to the discussion.
Burnemc
Your post adds what to the discussion?
Well the bond holders already have a lot of skin in the game and more so than any will want to see ECHO succeed, that means ECHO getting access to funds to unlock its assets but not at any price (does no one any favours).
It’s been a tough year again with tight cash but now see no reason the business can’t build back towards 2kboed pre calendar ye with better weather conditions and for a good slug of that prod to be liquid. Given poo strength a boost for ECHOs free CFs surely
Ranger I am intrigued you said you would not invest as a friend of yours advised you not to - you are here giving your opinion more than most - you looking to buy in soon or do you offer this free advice service on other boards as well? I just don't think I would have the time or inclination to proffer an opinion about a share that I was not invested in.
Loka
I agree they would get less but they would get something.
The SP has been a rollercoaster for a while and always seems to fall back fairly quickly even after good news. Have to remember this isn't what the bondholders signed up to at the start.
The bondholders will have insights into other similar companies in the region that they finance so might have a better gauge on Echo than most PI's have.
If I was a bondholder I would take the shares sell what I needed to cover my own costs and hold the rest.
But then the bondholders are getting less than they are owed, because the price will drop, and in that situation, it might not recover even with good news. And in the long term, that means Echo will find it hard to fund growth, which it needs to do to pay the bondholders back.
It would be a stupid move by the bondholders. They aren't getting discounted shares.
Loka Digitt Great to read you chat and get a insight to others thoughts without the bile that others post.
I think the bondholders will go for the shares now as it gives them better control. If some want to sell them and get the cash the others can hoover them up on the cheap as the so would drop.
That wouldn’t be Mgmt’s plan. There’s no way of knowing the bond holders thinking until we see how it plays out. We may end up with up with a mix of behaviours from the different notes. As is said though….next year we then don’t give the approval to issue shares.
At least they aren't discounted shares. If I was a bondholder I'd only take shares if the company was on a meteoric rise.
'if that was always the plan...ouch'
But you voted for it, everyone did. I thought you must have had good reason to know that wasn't the plan or shareholders wouldn't have voted for it?
Yes, it's better for long term holders, but not for those like me who thought we were buying in low recently...
I suppose we will see. But all the stuff about issuing shares then ramping etc, in partnership with the banks etc, that's deramping guff isn't it? Isn't it?
Correct...it is about maintaining good relationships with the bondholders who have given us rope to at least survive a little longer as we are.
If the bondholders asked for it now (they're entitled to), then we will get a sense for how things will play out on that. We don't know bondholders views...they may be short of cash and flogging their shares gets them their cash interest...so why not. Yes, I think it would hurt the SP, but unclear to me as to how much. In a negative sense it's actually an easier way to bleed more money from shareholders I think than a full blown wipeout of equity that might have happened without the restructuring..so if that was always the plan...ouch. But on the one note at least, it needs 51% of the bondholders to make the election and simply getting them to agree to the restructuring was difficult since they are a disparate bunch (I've said this before, straight quote from MH).
'MH clarified at my prompting that it was "best endeavours" (I think we will all say best efforts is close enough). At which point I immediately highlighted that this hadn't been made clear at all to s/hers (and noted the secretary furiously scribbling notes...I'm sure it never made it into the official minutes!). The answers given before were along the lines as it's complicated and there are multiple debt documents that all interrelate...but it was never directly answered.'
Well, I don't like this one bit. I suppose they want to stay on good terms with the bondholders and their future credit rep; it doesn't necessarily mean anything shadier than that.
If the dark chatter is right, at least there should be a spike to get out on! I hope Ranger wasn't right about this though.
Surely the bondholders aren't going to ask for it now? What they'd get would immediately lose its value unless Echo released amazing news to coincide and wouldn't questions be asked in that case?
But more to the point MY investment would immediately lose its value! And yours of course.
I didn't find body language or content particularly convincing in the interview. Then again, cameras and interviews scripted by committee are awful things unless you are a professional performer. Some CEOs like Colin Bird are wonderfully compelling interviewees... I don't put much stock in interviews as a gauge of a company's prospects. MH did strike me at least as someone who could see the light at the end of the tunnel for Echo.