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Hi Genghis15,
I took some off today as well. I just don’t get the vols here atm. Will wait before adding more.
Usual caveats
Trek
Puts his ginger on it imho.
I started to suspect a raise might be contemplated when the name chage was first mooted, and wish I'd acted on my suspicions then. I have reluctantly exited today.
Imv the reason these shares never reach a fair valuation given their recird and yield is the BoD habit of periodically raising at a sizeable discout in order to chase growth in the asset base, meanwhile destroying value for existing holders.
It's a great business model that should be delivering really good s/holder returns, and constant dilution is unnnecessary....either wait and grow organically, or set up new SPVs to chase more opportunities, with new shareholders etc.
Anyway, mb I'm wrong and no raise is coming. I'll be surprised, tho.
Now a £688k indicative buy at 29.375… wow that’s unusual here as it’s often NT for trades over 25k or even less!
Another ordinary type trade. SP now ticked back up to 30p.
Hopefully whatever it was is done now but somehow I won’t be surprised if we get additional news next week.
Usual caveats
Trek
£230k buy and a £53k buy. Both ‘O’ type. If it’s a buy which just because it looks like a duck and walks like a duck doesn’t mean to say it is in this game! Why cos SP done zilch, actually gone down a tad.
Does the seller have more?
Should have been a bounce after that one.
Mmm
Usual caveats
Trek
Sepl is indeed doing doing well .... but fund managers in the UK not ... I've taken a hit on a couple .... such is life.....
With these guys ... one has to go to the individual funds offered, track their cumulative performance and stay clear of the weak ones .... the old fund manager model is dead as far as I can see .... many underperform ... and the wider market is picking this up.
Gotta ask yourself why a seller. There could be loads of reasons.
The only concern I have is the market reaction as Duke may be looking for additional liquidity. There is around 35m left from the fairfax deal which was a cracking package at Sonia + 5% from memory.
35m is a headline as only bigger deals get RNS’d so it could be 20m. Whilst there is no hurry, if that is the case, they would eventually need to close a package out but atm rates are high and have not come down as expected.
I think that will change soon hence I took a few here. But I will wait before adding more in case the March trading updates has a follow on liquidity raise. Which if market rates are still too high could be from equity rather than debt.
Given the Bod have a lot of skin in here it and the price hasn’t really moved I think it could be a 25p placing.
When there is a seller close to the bid, happy to just offload volume it’s often coincidentally related. They could have had the feeler put out about a funding and thought yep you have our support let’s start selling now whilst there is market liquidity.
Obviuosly I am completely unsure and it’s only guess work on my part but I don’t see the point of just posting from one side.
Nonetheless, I have only taken a smaller position here in case I need to average down later.
But the important thing is the outlook is positive esp as rates come down but the divi wouldn’t go up as the pot has to cover more shares.
Once the macro shifts DUKE will really benefit from lower overheads.
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, I think you’re right, there’s someone offering to sell close to the bid price.
Trades are difficult to interpret this morning, my buy looks like a sell compared to other trades this morning. Hopefully a good buy under 30p, should be 10% capital gain in it , and near 10% yield while waiting.
Hi Temple,
My last 50k buy was posted as a sell. I was surprised to see that as the vol wasn’t that high so the sp wasn’t moving quicker than the ALGO. I think there’s a seller just giving a good price closer to the bid atm so buys show as a sell.
I am not buying more yet as this may go to 28p again. That is where I will add the next lot. If it goes back up I will wait on the sides.
Ps good numbers at SEPL!
Usual caveats
Trek
What results are due next week? website says 27 June and they gave Q3 update 29 Dec
Be careful about interpreting buys as sells Trek … the MMs are using Level II to try to spoof investors … Recently I’ve been getting orders through the books that pay little attention to LII pricing …. Almost not worth paying the extra for the facility IMO
Some good income sniffing out there Rojen3.
I sold out here at 33p and just bought back again. Wasn’t being clever just lucky as flipped some around.
Now got a few back. My buys showed as sells as the ALGO here is all over the place.
I am pretty sure there is a seller here affording this low SP opportunity. This has held up very well for the last year and should actually go higher in a lower interest rate world. That and all the indicative buys indicate to me that this is an opportunity.
I will add more probably after the results now.
Good luck.
Usual caveats
Trek
Again and now my biggest holding. GLA for next weeks results!
Great to see you on here Trek, I always enjoy reading your posts on the Phoenix Group and Diversified Energy boards, which I'm also invetsed in, now this makes 3 haha
I thought it was balanced. It came out just after I bought back in here.
I sold at about 33p and back in at 30p and a bit so not much difference really. But I have been watching the price and was amazed at how well it held up through the market ups and downs!
So figured I’d grab some as yield looks safe and sp should tick up once rates come down which should happen coincidentally in time for the next GE!
I like to try and grab high yield near the SP bottom and then have some air cover once the sp ticks back up. This could dip below 30p as there seems to be a seller atm but I think further out it looks pretty solid. Just like an annuity! lol!
Usual caveats
Trek
Https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/stockwatch-9-yield-and-nearest-example-annuity-share-ii530881
Thought this was a good read, not negative, but not wholly positive either, but definitely on the up side.
Great thanks for the reply and yep I've been stocking up too recently. Hopefully we might see a small affordable divi increase, although the current yield is nice. Might drive the share price up more too.
Hence me stocking up. And the divi announcement will be toward the end of March.
If you go through the past RNS's you will find that last year's update was on 3 March.
Does anyone have an idea of when the next trading update might be please? Not sure if it's early March or late March. Cheers
I have voted for this rebranding and very happy to hold and add at these levels.
Proposed Change of Name, New Website, Renewed Messaging and Investor Presentations
Duke is pleased to announce the outcome of its previously reported review of the SME Financing sector and to update the market on its proposed change of name to Duke Capital, new corporate website and renewed messaging.
Conclusions from our review
Duke's review has focused on ensuring that its unique offering is communicated to business owners and stakeholders in a way which provides greater clarity and improves comparison when evaluating a broad array of financing options. We believe this is in the best interest of the Company and its shareholders for the following reasons:
· The global private credit market is a large, rapidly growing and evolving segment of the financial sector, which includes direct lending, mezzanine, high-yield debt and other alternative products such as royalties
· Private credit, and especially direct lending (ie non-bank lending) has become more widely accepted in the SME sector in the last decade, and we believe Duke's solution is best classified as direct lending
· Duke has a seven-year track record in providing long-term, unique financing solutions to the lower mid-market in the UK, Europe and North America with current invested capital of over £200 million
· During that time, traditional royalty companies in the mining, music and pharmaceutical sectors have proliferated, especially in the public markets, which has resulted in confusion about Duke's solution for lower mid-market businesses which has, to date, been known as 'corporate royalties'
· By reframing our product as 'hybrid capital', we can more easily convey the attributes of our financing solution to business owners and investors and build on our momentum
· We define hybrid capital as a financing solution that blends features of private equity and private credit products and is more flexible than traditional debt or equity alone
· Despite the name change, our core product, investing policy and investment criteria are not changing, and we will continue to provide business owners with our unique 'corporate mortgage' debt product with equity-like attributes which align our success with the success of the business
Additional flexibility for investing
· Going forward, Duke will have additional flexibility to take equity ownership over 30% if and when situations necessitate or there is clear rationale to do so for our shareholders. The Company will maintain the same investment approach which, unlike private equity, is not looking to take control of the business or force an exit
· This additional flexibility is intended to benefit investors by enabling Duke in certain circumstances to continue longer with our best performing partners and ensure our capital growth is maximised, while not affecting our recurring cash revenue during the investment
Pedro,
It is another good set of results even though I am not expecting a dividend increase (there seems to be room for a marginal increase as inflation keeps taking its toll). It is also noteworthy that this increase [12% increase on Q3 FY23] has come with just less than 1% increase in shares in issue [the grant of 3,954,700 shares under the Long-Term Incentive Plan in Oct 2022].
29/12/23 Trading Statement
Duke Royalty said it expects recurring cash revenue of GBP6.3 million in its third quarter ending December 31, which would be a 12% increase year-on-year. It would also be a slightly increase from GBP6.2 million in its second quarter. "We are pleased to report that despite the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, we continue to deliver revenue growth, with Q3 FY24 on course to maintain this upward trend, underpinning our stable dividend which at the current share price, represents an approximate 9% yield," said CEO Neil Johnson.
Dividend declared 0.7p (unchanged), ex divi date 28/12/2023 payment date 12/01/2024.
Ahh ok great, thanks for the reply.