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You’re “warm” that’s all i’ll say on it. Lol
I think also the understanding of the virus will help or hinder bookings as and when restrictions are starting to lift July if I had a guess.
1 the understanding of the virus. if this was overplayed and the Government have this all wrong then it will be a light switch moment. ref the Gupta prediction most have had it in some form and we over played the threat to people.
2 if it's still lingering and the powers that be have no real cure then this is a problem not only for the body but the mind, why take the risk, why spend money if you cannot relax, go where you want and feel happy and comfortable where you are, and that includes being surrounded by folks packed on a plane the mental side will take a lot of time to heal imho folks will.be cautious not gung how it's a strange psychological.problem when you have had your freedoms taken away to deal with that's why Harries always mentions the mental side.
3 Other countries procedures for entry to much hassle na forget it next year luv scenario.
It's a pain I know as I have a financial transaction to complete so do I fly take the risk or give POA to Lawyers no risk?
So time will reveal all
Hi mate midlands base? you don't have to tell me which one.
Canaries Greece Turkey in that order imho
Didn't realise that
Enjoying your posts and believe DTG will be pick of bunch in Q2/q3
No position as yet
Dusterinmong - all points taken, thank you, I completely agree.
Riddler - I don’t have a premium subscription i’m afraid so unable to respond.
Flights definitely not resuming until on or affter June 16th, likely Turkey, Canaries amongst the first in my opinion. Madeira is another strong foothold for Jet2 so would imagine that will be re-started asap. Mainland Europe will take significantly longer.
Conversion rate to new bookings is in excess of 50% at present as well, so good news going forward.
I take it you work at a Midlands airport FTLR?
I agree with what you say, but as an investor and former trader il give join some advice, chat rooms are fun half the stuff is carp, sometimes you can get info, interactive investor used to be the best.
A handful of dimwits never bring a company down.
Sit back and back your investment and ride this out check once a day after 7am and mid afternoon.
Stick to your time horizon this will survive and do well back end of this year July onwards imho
Rude, me? Coming from the one who referred to me as a fantasist and a blatant liar? Come on... so lets here your credentials then because you clearly either work for DTG or are maybe some sort of super duper travel expert? The conversation with Monty was nice and civil and quite enjoyable, you turn up and turn everything sour because you don’t believe me. Like I said, take your pick whether you do or not, don’t deramp and call me out as a liar and then basically tell everyone to not believe me. You’re just an opinionated ignoramus. People will make their own opinions up on you as well.
To everyone else, i’m geneuinely not trying to hoodwink anyone. Facts are facts, i know what they are, like I’ve said to this piece of festering Spanish cheese, believe me or not, I care not. The future will tell!
OK so you can be rude but that doesn't hide your ignorance. Fifteen years in the airline industry does not make you an expert in tour operating. Anyway, for anyone reading this thread please be assured that Jet2 absolutely does not pay all their hotel accommodation up front. End of story.
Manchego clearly has no clue what hes talking about, FTLR is correct.
Fifteen years experience in the airline industry and I don’t have a clue. Go boil your head. I don’t have anything to prove to you. I’ve got a job to protect as well for gods sake you muppet. Take a Bloody hint. because you can’t handle the truth, don’t make out i’m a fantasist or some sort of liar. Where’s your proof that i’m wrong? Your tiny wannabe mind?
"I could not divulge that because I am not allowed to". What rubbish. You are a fantasist who doesn't have a clue how tour operating works. It's not a question of whether I believe you or not, I am stating categorically that you are incorrect and therefore probably made this up so to appear knowledgeable.
Where I get my information from is no concern to you. I could not divulge that because I am not allowed to. However, i really do not care what you think or whether you believe me or not, it makes no odds whatsoever in my life but could end up making a lot of difference in yours. I’m pointing out the facts out, that’s it.
"Jet2 actually pay for all their hotel rooms in cash, prior to the season. " Absolutely no way. Deposits yes, possibly some guarantees, but full payment up front- out of the question. Where did you get this "information"?
interesting i did think they would pay a good amount upfront thanks for confirming. will be interesting what arrangement re pay back they get.
easyjet in a lot of trouble in my mind
Also customers here are very loyal to the brand, the product speaks for itself vs others. Agree the conversion rate to moving bookings may one year in the future vs refunds will likely be less than half but it will be much higher than any other tour operator.
Jet2 actually pay for all their hotel rooms in cash, prior to the season. So all hotel’s etc are covered long before they are actually sold to the public. This is how they negotiate some of the best rates with suppliers, but also why it means the time for refunds can be lengthy.
At the moment the plan is evolving, flying supposed to recommence from May 1st, we all know thats not going to happen though, granted. In thats same breath, Jet2 will not refund holidays currently scheduled for after May 1st. Only up to that date. And then it will be on a rolling plan going forward. Yes they will have to refund, but a lot of jet2 customers also opt to pay in instalments, the final payment not due until before the holiday. Very few people these days are able to front £4-5k upfront for a holiday.
they will have paid at least a deposit
imagine the % changing to a year rather than taking money will be less than half but just my opinion
They won’t have paid the hotels yet. My family had a trip to Tenerife that was cancelled. They Been told
It will be 3-4 months before they receive money back. Plus a good few will be changing it to next years...
For the long run...
what about the fact they will have to refund all the package holidays that have been paid in full. surely that will affect cash position massively? Aren't they a holiday provider more than an airline as per say easyjet? Will the Spanish hotels be refunding the prebooked hotels they have paid for straight away? I doubt it?
Have enjoyed reading your posts.
And as previously stated am a big fan as a traveller and investor/trader
When this nasty senario started I picked out dart as the on for the rise back up, and have invested.
However am very cautious about the sector at the moment, it will come good, but some big bumps in the road
Other sectors are are enticing and offer more security, banks? More than double your money on Barclays. This time round the banks have plenty of cash
I know I keep adding points here but having looked a little deeper at EZY. It would appear they have a mere £330m in cash, i feel that puts them a little further down the list in the liquidity stakes. Also they do state they can only withstand a grounding of their entire fleet for one month in peak periods. This will unfortunately last longer than one month.
Most definitely not. The company has liabilities of £77m due in the next 12 months and £247m due over the next 2-4 years. Yeah they have borrowings of circa £900m but the remainder of that amount is due to start being repaid over four years from now, not by October. That if true would be a massive issue, and even without this crisis would be a burden on any viable airline.
It’s worth noting with liquidity you also have to consider the size of the company. Just because IAG have £9bn or something in cash, doesn't make them a better prospect. That £9bn has to go a lot further. BA are going to be hit by this big time. The USA is the big unknown here. Without Business travel to the US they are going to lose money hand over fist. With regards to EZY, they have to spread their cash around a fleet that is three times the size of Jet2’s with a massive amount of employees, a great deal of liabilities, new aircraft arriving left right and centre, hence why Stelios is suggesting they cancel their orders or at least postpone (costs money) and possibly even reduce fleet size from 344 to 250 aircraft. No two airlines are the same, it’s not like comparing Sainsbury's with Tesco’s, or HSBC with Barclays. They all have their own niche markets to a certain extent.
Dart have a business model that yes, as you correctly point out runs at a slight loss in the winter. However a much much smaller loss than any competitor because you can only afford to park up airplanes, when you own them. It’s always been the way things are done there. Winters are now busier due to the demise of Thomas Cook but folk don’t foresee much of a change to their winter operating model in the immediate future.
I would be interested to peruse your liquidity table though. Ryanair, will always survive like I said in earlier posts, they are a horrible company but they don’t care about that. Wizz, unfamiliar with their finances but I know you can make money with them, they’re trading at least 50% down on highs at the moment.
Interesting opinions, and at work just with my phone I cannot say you are wrong and back it up with evidence.
Liquidity, best to worse
I will look to find the liquidity table I saw, which details cash, current debt and due liabilities.
Going from memory, do DART have 1.2billion in liabilities due before October?
DART run at 100million loss during the winter?
These are questions not criticism
I can assure you Dart have a lot more than 3/4 months of money. I also read that sipping hot water every 20 minutes cures coronavirus, doesn’t mean its true. Be careful with the negative stuff you read. It’s easy to deramp this and yes like I said earlier the swings are large, can’t refute that, makes it such a good investment. I missed the low point in the 180’s and am gutted, i’d be truly surprised to see that again. Dart was also trading where it is now a little while ago, prior to Its expansion. From speaking to people there, nobody is concerned. Like i said previously burning 333m a month, not even possible. Planes grounded but large amount of the fleet owned (they also fly very very little in the winter anyhow), even if they put all their staff on unpaid leave (not going to happen), ongoing maintenance is probably circa £2m per week for the entire fleet. Then you have rent and all the other sundries... so lets be generous and double to £4m per week, £16m per month when the company is just ticking over. Salary costs before any furlough scheme are circa £35m per month. Lets say the govt helps to the tune of £10m per month. So add it all uo and you have £41m a month after subsidies, a lot of outgoing yes, but from what I hear from people I know, the money is there to weather well in excess of 12 months. They are not going to burn £1.5bn in 3 months. My opinions here are based on myself having been in aviation for circa fifteen years and knowing people all over the industry, nothing else. When TUI dropped all their advertising slots, who jumped in to buy them? Jet2.... just saying. So this summer be prepared to see nothing else but Jet2 advertising on the TV. Amongst airlines Jet2 is seen as the unstoppable force. I don’t want to see people lose money, there is plenty here to go round, what I don’t want to see is people spouting rubbish about a company that isn't true, we all look after each other in aviation. GlobeSpan went bust on the back of rumour which caused credit card companies to withhold crucial funds, OK GlobeSpan didn't have the cash reserves that Jet2 do, but people with incorrect scaremongering opinions compounded the problem and caused a lot of upset for many people who worked there. Also, Standardlife buying into Dart in large volumes, I would like to think they would have done their due diligence in a little more depth than PI’s. I still believe there will be more drops until the industry has more certainty, but when it does you’ll see how strong a company this is.