The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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"Look at the share price behaviour and you have your answer…" - in other words you've lost a s hit load of money on your shorts and that is why you are so negative! Hey ho - you win some, you loose some. You should have gone long when it was below 300p then you would have been happy :-)
Look at the share price behaviour and you have your answer…
The price is swinging quite a bit at the moment what with local and geopolitics messing with the karma!
That said there is money to be made if you're a day trader but sadly I'm not that brave! If only they would pay down more of that debt pile......
I would guess that EFFIX is a disgruntled ex employee, if so I suspect that Drax are better off without him.
I am back in based on recent momentum. I ignored EFFIX in 2020 and made a 79% return, let's hope for the same this time.
Yet it’s broken 8 quid twice in the last year you don’t think it’s going any higher? Why so negative effix???
Your guy feeling said it would never get above 300p…EVER. oh dear, what weren’t wrong?
...and your gut is as reliable as a BBC weather forecast.....
Don’t get carried away. My gut feeling tells me it’s topped right now.
Wishing all fellow Drax'ers a very happy holiday and being ever charitable, I'll even extend this seasons greeting to our very short 'friend' who seems to have been rather quiet of late - long may they remain so!
How high do we think it will go and when? I’m guessing end of Feb will be at its peak but to what value?
EGL recognises higher costs – positive
A supplementary technical note for the EGL published by HM Treasury contains a number of changes. We view two as very significant for Drax: indexation of the £75/MWh benchmark price from April 2024, and the ability to reduce generation receipts by excess costs over historic levels. For Drax, our interpretation suggests the latter is £65/MWh. Our estimate of the EGL take more than halves, our EPS estimates rise, and our target price increases to 1,100p.
BUY
Price: 661p
Target: 1100p (prev: 955p)
Is the truth about wind energy finally beginning to come home to roost?
City AM report, 'Ole Hanson, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told City A.M. that the intermittent performance of domestic renewable power is proving costly for the West.' (equivalent to 15 nuclear power plants).
The amount of gas we have to use in the UK is staggering. Good old, sustainable, Drax just keeps generating 5 - 7% UK requirement.
Happy Christmas all.
For the first time I have to totally agree with something Effix03 stated in their last post "Thank you Drax, you are the gift that keeps on giving."
SP=>£8 - No just yet; wait until February, when a bitter winter sees SP rise.
MM-Pigs pedalling their little algorithms for SPs to go downhill with thousands of Auto-Trades,
Mickey-Mouse Buys/Sells of 1/2/5/7 shares across the board of all energy & Utilites -
check CNA, SSE, BP., ENOG etc. ...
more than 3000 Auto-Execs on CNA before noon today?....Flucking rediculous
Not until Effix opens another short, then it will! :)
Heading back up to 8 quid, thoughts?
CGT a bit of a kick in the teeth
I see Jefferies (600PT) and Barclays (over 800) have updated their price targets.
Does anyone have the research notes?
Thanks
Is the short you took out at £2?
The cracking sound of Drax collapsing is a music to my ears! So close to my short target of 450p. Thank you Drax, you are the gift that keeps on giving.
The geology isn't just flawed actually, it is completely fu45kd. What was flawed was the socialist planning that came up with the brilliant idea. DYOR before posting. Even if Drax was to burn used £5 notes as biomass it wouldn't be enough money to sort it out. Maybe however, given the QE the BoE has done over the years, that is the answer. They are holding about 10 trillion pounds, so perhaps that could be the substitute for logs. Having said that, apart from deluded Greens, N. America, the EU, and Asia see biomass as an expanding source of energy. As long as the business model works Drax they should continue, Germany is still generating a massive (increasing) amount of elec from Brown coal. Presumably that is okay ? As is nuclear waste; fracking; diesel driven wind turbines; and solar panels; half of which are produced by forced labour; exploitation of rare earth minerals by child labour for use in batteries and wind turbines: all to satisfy a smug self - centred middle class green agenda. The muddy waters of green politics run deep. LOL. Close all of that down first, then we can switch the lights off at Drax, and go back to living in the Stone Age! If you think wood is a Middle Ages fuel, coal is surely Primeval, and in my book, just slightly more important than immature trees.
Anyway, I think a certain ex - Chancellor has a lot to answer for. He didn't do his research either! Happy Days!
1. We could reopen those coal mines and produce coal cheaper than the biomass costs to import, geology made the coal uncompetitive before, coal now 10x price, simple maths..
2. If you believe, like I do, that the UK has crazy environmental maniacs in charge, then you should know that Canada is on a whole new level of crazy. They have insane energy reserves, and refuse to use them to lower internal energy prices to "save the environment". If you think Trudeau will protect you and your "offcuts of wood" then your very trusting. Canadian climate activists are paramilitary style and will probably chain themselves to the trees Drax wants to cut down lol
.... and, for the record, the coal mines Drax was built next to were closed well before Drax stopped burning coal due to geology. The Canadian biomass imports have replaced US coal imports.
Why would Canada support the use of Biomass? It's supporting the timber industry
If the trees are being used anyway and the offcuts would be burnt anyway, why would you not generate power from it?
Clown.
Drax was specifically built next to coal mines that provided jobs and employment for the local area and now we are importing wood from Canada, shipping it across the Atlantic Ocean! Wood is a Middle Ages fuel, Coal has twice the energy density! The CO2 emitted by all of the inputs to the wood chips is equivalent to the CO2 from coal. It boggles the mind how the green agenda has made our country reliant on wood imports from Canada! What happens when Canada decides that it doesn't support the shipping of wood pellets to the UK for environmental reasons, oh the irony! Drax is an example of gross incompetence and the fallout from the Drax power station being shut down due to wood pellet supply issues would be catastrophic for UK energy supply. Don't say I didn't warn you...
The ROC buyout price for 2022/23 is £52.88. They get that for the ROCs produced on two units and the third unit is a 'spare' that they can use to produce ROCs if there is an extended outage on the other two. There is a limit of about 10.5TWh of production from the three units they can get ROCs for.
The business is gearing up to be subsidy free from 2027, anyway. The thing to look out for is what the 'voluntary' CFD will entail. It could be good for the company if it takes away the threat of a windfall tax. The UK economy NEEDS Drax to keep the lights on. I think DECC actually gets this. My concern is that too many people outside of the sector don't.
If we shut Drax down tomorrow - the last person to leave the UK, please turn out the lights.