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Do you think we could have more constructive comments on this and less personal abuse?
Well I have just read through effix03's posts for the last 3 years, and I cannot spot any favourable posts .Effix03 has been negative about the company consistently over that period.
Airfix, you do realise people can see your old posts ?
@Rge_master - it's all great? What the f... you're talking about? I've been always shorting and highly critical of them
Urgh,
I've gone though this entire thread, effix03 you swing more than a penny stock, one moment it's all great the next it's doom and gloom. Why don't you do what you said, it's hit the 400 range, off you trot. If you've not got an investment in this business go and find something else to spend your time on and stop pestering people.
Either way in other good news, it's up 2.6% today which is great, I shorted it on the way down and then bought on the way back up, I'm still hopeful that they'll hit their 750p target which will net me £3 per share.
Also, they've invested £6B in 3 new sites in the US, they've been drafted for track 1 for BECCS and even though the NAO is doing an audit (They also did this 5 years ago and ended up with absolutely nothing) it's not completely bottomed out at 350p a share which was more than possible in the market right now. It touched 400 which was bad enough though.
every few weeks a new ****-up. do you understand now why i’ve been always saying it’s a basket case only worth to be shorted?
Or from 118 in March 20 to 440 now. Very impressive rise.
There are a couple of aspects to this - political and technical/energy security.
The grid NEEDS Drax power station, It is well-located on the grid and a solid 2,4GW source of flexible power.
Other than Hinkley, the only new power bing constructed is inflexible. The biomass supply is secured by Drax so it will be needed going forward. The Just Stop Oil types who hate Drax will be ignored, as it is impractical.
Politically, looking at net zero and, more wider HS2, clarity on policy is all over the place. The sentiment is not good, but there is still currently a highly profitable business and there is no chance the current support mechanisms (CFD and ROC) would be withdrawn, as the government would sued and it would damage confidence in the regimes.
It is NOT red in the water. There is a chance of good returns but a probability of high volatility.
Really good comment, I agree. Thanks to Boris, the Govt is struggling to finish Hinckley, let alone start Sizewell, so the idea of letting go of 2GW+ is not insignificant ( I think it is just under 4GW max). Two concerns I have: use of LPG, and continuity of supply of biomass. I think on some days UK has used LPG to generate more than 60% of needs. With the govt rowing back on climate change measures, they could just say 'what the hell' let's just import more gas; secondly I would like the company to comment on resilience in their biomass supply chain. Drax has had mixed £ fortunes in the distant past, so definitely not one for a the faint hearted, or savers. Sub £4 this will look increasingly interesting but dependent on some very big decisions by govt and associated quangos (NAO and OFGEM).
It's a rollercoaster ride and one for the brave. My view is that the UK Gov is running out of options. Coal is gone and large thermal is struggling to make enough margin outside of peak running so it is difficult to see where the baseload generation is coming from in the future. Who is going to build anything other than OCGT, if even that? At-scale batteries are still a long way off, given required raw material quantities and processing output that needs to meet voracious global demand (UK will struggle to get a look-in). AR5 showed that wind is not getting cheaper in line with govt hopes and there is a big gap in capacity opening up towards the end of this decade. The supply chain cost increases that prevented wind providers from even bidding in to AR5 (and many AR4 bid winners from delivering their projects) will be felt globally so the, somewhat-inefficient-but-vaguely-plausible, approach of building over-capacity of wind to solve operating margin tightness is under threat. In the next 7 years, we now need to commission and build the equivalent to all the wind capacity we have ever built in the UK (or something like that). The point is that it is v unlikely we will even meet current build out targets. The govt simply cannot afford to let 2+ GW of firm capacity close down. It is now almost physically impossible to close the gap to a secure national electricity supply, even if they start today - which they won't. There is a huge amount of political risk (rightly) factored into the pricing of these shares given the degree of govt support and opposition from some very loud and persistent single-issue voices. I just think that soon, the UK govt at least, will have nowhere else to go...
Absolute defenestration. Complete capitulation. From 830 in April '22 to 424 now. Impressive slide.
Appear to be taking a hammering from all sides. What’s everyone’s thoughts good chance for a nice return or time to cash out?
If Canadian wildfires proved anything it is that forests need to be intensively managed. Biomass is unavoidable and has to be removed. Trees do nothing to reduce carbon. Importing biomass from Canada is better than importing coal from Australia and Brazil as used to be the case. With BECCS Drax will be a world leader. Thanks to politicians and treehuggers there are some big falls in the share price - can only mean one thing - big gains to come. As for 'being on public money' effix do you know how much nuclear waste costs the public purse every year, or why wind farms managed to produce cheap power?
Although it is far better than burning imported coal...
Burning Wood imported from Canadian forests is neither renewable, sustainable or desirable. Drax is living on UK Government Subsidies...
Power generation is critical national infrastructure, and Drax was a key part of the government's low carbon strategy until Rishi blew a huge hole in everything. Change of government will see sense return. Renewables are the future.
This dud has now fallen almost 50% from its peak after QE pump. Expect further falls. Share price will never recover meaningfully for the simple reason - this company has no future. Forever on public money support, the market has finally come to its senses. Finito.
Ah but! the 400 ZONE is defined as 50 to 750 so tecknickly it hasn't actually gone through it yet. So, the daft twit (other vowels are available) is quite within his writes to stay.
You shouldn't even be here Airfix.
This was your post in Jan 21
"I can commit to leave this forum a very day it goes through 400p ZONE. It’s simply not gonna happen. Period."
Please do us all a favour and stick to your commitment, that's a good chap.
@synnerman, show me where I said I shorted at £2 or £3 you bag holder
More like blown off a cliff
effix… you said you shorted it at £2, then again at £3. you are an absolute clown. you’re blatantly just a skint, crusty student member of some pointless organisation like extinction rebellion that doesn’t even understand why we need working forests and biomass.
it’s pretty ******* obvious what the benefits are of biomass are… nao report seems a bit pointless. probably trying to justify their jobs.
@owls - who cares about £3 you schmuck. I’m already vastly in the money. Even if it goes to £4 or £4.5 I’ll have earned like a bandid.
Buhahaha. Delicious!
Https://www.nao.org.uk/work-in-progress/the-governments-support-for-biomass/
Seems much ado. NAO does loads of reviews.
There is no chance of net zero without Drax, especially as the recent auctions has no offshore wind awards.