Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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The easy explanation is you read it wrong. They did not say they will need funding in the next few months. they said
The impact of this on Efmody® sales and the extent of further financing for the Company to reach profitability will be assessed over the coming months.
Reactions to bad news exaggerated. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you're looking to buy in and are patient) this will set any placing at 15-17p and with the new shares leant out to allow shorting this will drop to 12p ,or 10p if they burden the raise with warrants. In a years time probably back up to 50s so major opportunity buying in low teens. All imho.
I would like to know what exactly went wrong with the SMC/Efmody approval?
Simply a paperwork ****-up by Dnl or test results weren't as good as SMC requires???
Management costs high; management hubris high.
Failure to get Efmody approved by SMC means missing their cash forecash hence this needs addressing to cover the high costs. Six months ago they stated that there was sufficient cash to take the cortisol deficiency franchise through to profitability, clearly that is no longer the picture.
They have already flagged that they will need additional funding to progress their non cortisol deficiency prospects.
Cash burn is pretty much £20m a year. So they don’t have a huge amount of runway.
I’ve just started a position here and will build up over time
The company has got £25m cash, and the RNS says they will require even more funding in the coming few months. Can't get my head around when there is already so much cash available. The SP is just going to get hammered, really disappointing.
Mitchell Kapoor
Hi, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions today. The first one is regarding ALKINDI SPRINKLE, could you just comment on any barriers to uptake you're seeing, if you are seeing any?
Sean Brynjelsen
No, this is Sean. Thanks for the question. The ALKINDI SPRINKLE numbers are looking great. I'm very happy with the partnership with Tolmar. We just had a record week of new prescriptions last week and we've seen that week over week, so it's not a -- I believe it's a good trend. It's a positive trend, I don't want to get too -- I don't want to overstate it. But right now, we are feeling very optimistic about our ALKINDI numbers, our ability to hit our goals and to hit a significant number of patients this year. So that's some -- that's where we're at. If there are -- there are some barriers, doctors and patients are working through those. Some -- just like for example, barrier might be somebody who's used to using the compounded product and you give them something that's different. They have to get used to that. They have to understand it, learn about it. And that whole process can take some time. Some people it happens quick. Some people it happens not so quick. But we're starting to see the doctors prescribe it. And there's also a shortage of compounded hydrocortisone from what I understand, which is perhaps also hoping to good win for us.
yet another placing ??
Getting rather brutal here now.
Drops are always overdone - good news is 'priced in' !
20% drop seemed a bit overdone on that news?
First patient dosed in Phase 2 clinical trial with modified-release hydrocortisone in adults with adrenal insufficiency
Data from CHAMPAIN European study expected in H2 2022
Positive data could lead to regulatory approval in AI in 2023
Addressable market seven times larger than CAH
Hi HunSen and Balanced. Glad to see you are both still here. Always a pleasure to read your views, very informative. Still willing to hold longer term and your views always settle any negative thoughts that may creep in, usually due to very negative posts. Keep up the good work. Looking forward to next few years.
Hi Balanced,
good to see you are still here and still following DNL.
The report is well worth reading, I note on the revenue forecasts that Calvine have £10.5m as an estimate for FY 2022, so that's a little worse than the consensus forecast and it requires a 261% uplift in revenues in the second half.
BUT, the report also estimates Efmody sales will go from zero to £6.0m (half year reported £0.39m) and Alkindi should reach £4.47m (half year £1.74m) an Alkindi forecast increase of 156% for the full year seems ambitious but if it's gaining traction amongst children rather than newborns then certainly not impossible.
I think the above is quite ambitious in the current climate - but possible.
But what I do like is looking forward to 2024 and 2025.
We know Efmody is safe and if it's proven (as expected) to be effective in treating AI, then revenues could increase from £4.3m (2021) to £123m & £188m (2024 & 2025), an uplift of 2,760% and 4,272% from 2021. Looking forward, 2024 will also see the companies first profit.
The interim cash burn would be around £27m, current cash being £24m - they need to run a tight ship to reach profit without more funding - which is expected in one form or another for DITEST.
I continue to hold at around 4% of our portfolio. I would be interested as always to hear your thoughts.
ATB
Hi HunSen
There's this note today:
https://www.calvinepartners.com/post/diurnal-group-trading-update-ahead-of-r-d-day?utm_campaign=9b044854-773e-42c6-96c5-0354145c5983&utm_source=so&utm_medium=mail&cid=19ac48a6-4478-4665-a825-118f26f77efd
I'm not so sure this meets expectations. Expectations being full year revenue of £9.2m, there should be little difference between H1 & H2 (except organic growth) which means H2 needs to grow organically by 220% to meet forecasts.
Efmody is still 12 months off the approval decision in the US and early growth in Europe is disappointing for the reasons given in the update.
Cash seems to be a little more encouraging, in 2019 they had £9.1m cash, the company asked shareholders for £11.2m and finished the year with £15.4m = £4.9m cash burn.
Most recent cash (now) £24.4m after a placing for £7.5m is a cash burn of £1.5m (enter the R&D credit for £1.5m) = cash neutral for this year.
My calculations may be wrong (from SharePad, previous updates) but a lot needs to change in terms of GP access to meet 220% growth in the next six months.
Newborn babies with CAH (IMO) will continue to be prescribed Alkindi, but growth in Efmody will require GP access and there are so many competing priorities for GP's.
There needs to be a compelling reason to switch adults from their current medication to Efmody for a prescription - in my opinion, at this time, that can only be complications with the current regime.
While the company is cash neutral this update, there will be cash R&D demands from Efmody (for AI) which is a much larger opportunity than CAH and DITEST, which is a bigger opportunity still, but questions remain around how this will be funded.
I am a long term patient holder - any errors above are my own, DYOR. Expect some brokers notes on this update.
Great thank you for posting this - much appreciated
Seems to meet expectations - telling period will be next six months but this company continually seems to deliver on its commitments - going to be a winner mid to long term
Financial highlights:
Revenue
· Total revenues for the Period increased to £2.16m, representing year-on-year growth of 75% (six months ended 31 December 2020: £1.21m).
· Alkindi® (hydrocortisone granules in capsules for opening) product sales (including royalties) for the Period increased to £1.74m, representing year-on-year growth of 46% (six months ended 31 December 2020: £1.19m).
o Continued growth achieved in core markets (UK, Germany, Italy and Austria) with sales of £1.28m for the Period (six months ended 31 December 2020: £0.92m), increasing by 39% year-on-year despite the continued impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on patients' ability to visit hospitals and consequently physicians' ability to switch these patients to Alkindi®.
o Series of Alkindi® launches planned by Diurnal's global distribution partners in the first half of calendar year 2022, which are expected to further underpin the growth of Alkindi®.
· Efmody® (modified-release hydrocortisone) initial product sales for the Period of £0.39m (six months ended 31 December 2020: £nil) were in line with the Company's expectations, reflecting sales in the initial launch markets of Germany, UK and Austria since the first pricing approvals in September 2021.
o Efmody® sales are expected to accelerate significantly in the first half of calendar year 2022, as the Company begins to receive pricing and formulary approvals in its target European markets.
Cash
· Cash and cash equivalents as at 31 December 2021: £24.4m (as at 31 December 2020: £20.3m), including R&D tax credit of £1.5m received in December 2021
Can't buy anything
Thanks for the link.
This page (ie I'm not referring to the above link) does not indicate an RNS has been released, frustrating.
Good steady progress...
https://twitter.com/IsaacAim/status/1480885562135482369?t=pUoitFl10ScQW1_Smqp0iw&s=19
First clinical trial sites initiated in both CONnECT and CHAMPAIN studies for Chronocort®
DITEST™ IND application to be submitted during January 2022
If the so hits £15.40 (!!) I will be a diurnal millionaire ...
Come on Rodney lol