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Hear hear.
I am fortunate enough to have a low average and to not have been here as long so as to give them a pass on certain fronts but I'm as annoyed as anyone with the cashew update today - we were some positive progress away on that front from seeing a meaningful recovery here in terms of share price. Now we've back to sitting, waiting and hoping.
And for my sins I've added so got that little but more on the line now! GL, hope it comes good for both of us.
Yes i get what you are saying and agree - we probably don't disagree on that much.
my frustration with DKL is ive probably seen too much of it over the years.
with DKL they've taken share allocations in exchange for related party transactions to acquire nothing more than ideas from themselves (shell companies) - and then they depleted the very modest cash reserves to turn them into actual businesses - and then they have failed on that!!
we as PIs we have been hit on all sides by this utter shambles and there comes a point when the standard self interest (which i agree happens everywhere) just becomes unacceptable (i could go further - fraudulent?)
I'm not sure I am, i'm just realistic and know how the game works. CEOs get paid handsomely, there aren't any altruistic managers that put shareholders before themselves, there just isn't.
if they instead start taking shares instead of depleting the very modest cash reserves then I would usually see that as a positive. If directors own 22% I consider that heavily incentivised, they have the opportunity to get mega rich if and only if they make a success of this and turn it around.
They are going to get paid one way or the other unless they we kick them out at AGM or Dekel goes under.
You are a more generous person than me Harchris - i think how you acquire these shares matters alot
there's the correct, ethical and morally right way to accumulate reward (and i have no issue with that) and there is the DKL way.
i won't go into it all again as can just read previous posts
He is the CEO and he will pay himself handsomely, if he instead takes shares and they keep going down he has lost out.
Obviously a CEO of a listed company is still going to do *okay* and better than the proles investing in them but there is still a significant financial incentive.
I don't actually think how you acquire them does actually matter all that much. It is now their money and so their financial future will be largely dependent on the success of DKL now, more so than myself with my own personal small allocation to this company anyway.
Lincoln started with 1m shares - he's now got circa 5m
given he has bought hardly any (if any) of these additional 4m shares - then a share price drop of 80% has no material financial impact on him at all!
much easier to make money allocating yourselves greater equity to mitigate performance than get down to the hard work and fix things!!
this has been DKLs approach to date
Agree with all that Harchris
my only point would be (and sorry to keep saying it) - although the BOD hold 20%+ of the company, if you look at what they have actually bought out of their own pocket (rather than allocated on the back of related party transactions, shareoptions etc) then its more like 7-8% max - and that is assuming they invested own cash when DKL first established - which i doubt!
so their alignment to our interest i would say has not been significant at all - their interest has been more in allocating themselves a greater share equity - to mitigate their own poor performance.
of course the flip side of that is PI dilution - us retail investors have pretty much taken the full financial hit in relation to poor share price performance to date (we can handle a share price drop of 50% if somebody gives us double the number of shares!)
if we want alignment of interest - this behaviour we need to stop! -
just in case anybody had not heard that message before!
All of that said.
They've appointed a project manager.
Food production equipment isn't rocket science.
Once the BOD release more positive news this downward chart will level off and go back up.
The beauty of AIM!
Agreed.
At 1.5p I don't see much risk.
It's the usual AIM P.O.S. inefficient BOD, not appointing the right downstream management structure, going for cheaper equipment ( twice ) that doesn't work, literally proving up the adage you pay cheap you pay twice, on a business run in Africa; producing a product that's towards the top of its pricing matrix.
Apart from the above there's no risk ; )
'Entry here and lower seems reasonable for them to correct in time.'
______________________
You're getting a hell of a lot for £10m mcap. Raises to acquire and get the cashew project up and running were done at a much higher price (5p, 3.1p) and the last main placing was also at 5p. There's considerable cash generation being seen from CPO and PKO and there's room for non capex growth.
On the downside there's a management team that have continually underdelivered so the gamble is whether you think they learn from their mistakes and take advantage of the setup they now have or if problems will persist. I believe the directors hold something like 22% of the company shares so it's not that their interests are unaligned, it's just a failure of execution up until now.
I bought more today but that's my lot - there is risk.
Rugs,
Italian production machinery is famed for its need for engineers and rejigs after the initial commissioning.
Food production generally requires this anyway so combining the two without the right person in charge from the get go is really p155 poor.
Entry here and lower seems reasonable for them to correct in time.
Quote from Lincoln March 23 - Dekel Agri-vision doing a lot better than people realise
since then the SP is down 25% and the forecast SP down from 9p - 8.5p (admittedly the forecast is by WHI)
unfortunately Lincoln is absolutely clueless - if he jumped of a boat he'd miss the water!
When you actually look holisitcally at what DKL has delivered since inception it really is appalling (let alone comparing this to what was promised) - how Lincoln and others are still in post is both incredible and does not bode well for the future.
we are still at less than 40k tonnes produced - after what - 8 years of production? against a capacity of 70k (which was then subsequently reduced to 60k without adequate explanation)
outside of that they've delivered nothing - no guitry and a pathetic performance in delivering the cashew capacity which is already significantly overdue.
lets be honest we are all now just hoping for performance in spite of the board - we are hoping for a business that can succeed regardless of how bad the management are !
that is really desperate!! but its unfortunately where we are - i can't see the leadership making the necessary changes (or they simply cannot recruit the right calibre)
Thanks. That aligns with what I said as I’m working from the assumption that all cash generation through h2 pays off short term loans/those with near term maturity. Plus used for any unexpected capex like we’ve seen today.
In other words net debt is roughly the same as debt because the cash position will remain very low.
@HarChris, in the depths of that report, WH Ireland have net debt / revenue / adj PBT as follows:
Net Debt (€m)
2020 -27.7
2021 -31.4
2022 -29.8
2023 -28.4
Estimate 2024 -26.5 (before today's RNS they had it estimated at -25.8 for 2024)
Revenue (€m)
2020 22.5
2021 37.4
2022 31.2
2023 38.5
2024 38.9 (before today's RNS they had it estimated at 41.3 for 2024)
Adj. PBT (€m)
2020 -2.2
2021 0.9
2022 -1.2
2023 0.7
2024 0.6 (before today's RNS they had it estimated at 1.5 for 2024)
Target price now 8p, down from 9.5p
"This morning’s full year operational update from DKL caps off an excellent year for the group’s palm oil business, with a combination of strong production and historically high crude palm oil (“CPO”) pricing reported to have delivered one of the group’s best annual financial performances in this division. The group also provides an update on its first year of commercial production in its cashew operation – where the anticipated ramp up in production has been held back by delivery delays and underperformance of key items of shelling and peeling machinery. Although additional shelling machines were installed in Q4 2023, independent assessments have determined the need to replace certain machinery parts to allow production rates to improve significantly, with further investment of €0.25m expected to deliver production increases in Q2 2024. With cashew production likely to be below our previous expectations in FY2024, we adjust our forecasts this morning for the coming year to reflect a slower ramp up in the cashew operation, while leaving FY23E unchanged and noting that the underlying economics of this project remain strong once at full production. Although further delays to the cashew operation are disappointing, we continue to view DKL as well positioned for the future, with the palm oil business performing very strongly and the cashew project expected to deliver a meaningful increase in profitability as teething issues are resolved...With a strong end to the year in palm oil, we leave FY23E forecasts unchanged, while we adjust FY24E to account for a slower ramp up in cashew production, with FY24E forecast output reducing from 7,000t to 4,500t. Our fair value target is reduced commensurately from 9.5p to 8.0p, while we note there remains significant upside beyond FY2024 as cashew production rates continue to increase."
The full report is on their website, requires free registration.
Https://www.share-talk.com/rns-hotlist-with-zak-mir-orcp-dkl-enet-rbw-ukog-cbx-cyan-aqru-mhc-ccz-abdx-tek-xlm-trin-sae-shg-mks/
Zak Mir:
"It remains frustrating for DKL shareholders in the sense that the past year and before has witnessed the company delivering on its strategy, especially with regard to CPO production. For DKL shares to be anywhere near their lows appears to be something of an aberration."
@darientaylor, there are rival mills in the area, so they could be heading in that direction. Some of it will be eaten, of course.
There was no exclusivity agreement as far as we're aware, i.e. buy cheap from our nursery/sell to our mill.
Here is what i dont understand. 5 years ago DKL planted a huge amount of trees. they take about 5 years to be good producers of FFBs, production in the year 2021 was 190k tonnes and this year that hasnt increased at all. where has all this 'own' planting gone.. why has there not been a huge uplift in production over the last 3 years.
The Italian machinery supplier was Oltremare spa ( since taken over by Mann and Hummel). What action is DKL taking to recover costs from this outfit as it would appear the machinery supplied was crap.
All but inevitable Rugs. It even exceeded the prediction of the poster who said 1.5p. It is a car crash of a share with those at the wheel having a get out of jail free card. Today's RNS should have someone at Director removed immediately from post due to sheer ineptitude. Look at the Gok wan attempt to put terrible news after decent news, quietly hoping the market was stupid. The BOD gave shown not one sign of being able to not to mind turn this around but even to stabilise it. Dreadful. Absolutely incompetent.
Had hoped never to see these numbers again. 1.40 to sell and 1.50 to buy. Financially a disaster.
Ha I’ve just had a little top up so average is below 2p now. I’ve never had particular faith in the management but I’m still confident I’ll see a healthy return from here.
And if I don’t? Well I’ll save my moaning for my therapist!
Now they have succeeded in thrashing the SP perhaps our well remunerated BOD might want to step into the market and do some concert buying to show some faith in what the company has become. They are sitting on worthless warrants thanks to their stewardship so they could divert cash that they will never have to call on under their stewardship. As usual though we have capitalism in reverse where the profits are privatised and the losses are socialised to small PIs. Furthermore we often hear about the vote of confidence that issuing shares in lieu is. How does Lincoln Square that with the history of an SP undergoing a veritable death spiral under his and the BODs leadership.