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Thanks for the updates Monkshood. I bought some GCP and Empiric a few weeks back. Both my offspring will be at uni this autumn, and the accommodation costs are painful. One pays 5.5K the other £7K . So taking note of this, and the post-crash price of the shares, I thought I'd get some of this back by becoming a shareholder. Working OK so far!
Finally others seem to have woken up to the fact that all of the students need to live somewhere...
Totals from UCAS today, 11k more UK UG students than this time last year ,Overseas up 1.5K from last year and 3.5K from 2018. The only category which is down are EU students with a fall of 2.3k from last year. Last year UK and RoW overseas accounted for 87% of the students housed by DIGS so the drop in EU students should not have a significant impact.
UG's make up 66% so it will also depend on how post grad recruitment is going, from what I have been told, both for UK and RoW this has been strong. With a tight jobs market and not many options to travel, it seems that people are choosing to spend the next year gaining some post grad qualifications.
Overseas (nonEU) UG student numbers seem to be holding up well and are at their highest ever level. EU students are down about 3k but this is more than compensated by a 5k increase in UK students, the later will increase further as the mess with grades works through. Accommodation is filling but is bound to be left until nearer the start dates this year.
Re-Overseas, I assume that we are a beneficiary of both their problems of controlling covid in the US plus Trumps visa policy.
From Bloomberg-
'Following efforts by the Trump administration to revoke foreign student visas if those students planned to take all online classes, dozens of schools sued; the executive order was rescinded, but new guidelines from the U.S. immigration department say this rule will still apply to new incoming international students. A July report from the Institute for International Education found that half of U.S. colleges received fewer applications from international students'
BBC
Universities facing 'crazy demand' from students
Of direct relevance to DIGS-
The issue of students withdrawing hasn't affected the University of Brighton either, says Carl Griffiths, head of recruitment at the university, who says there has been less movement than previous years.
Accommodation bookings on Scape going well.
But the sp drops 5%???
Queen Mary's has opened up another 500 places in clearing - will help to fill Mile End accommodation.
Student cap lifted so there will be more heading of to the top uni's in London .
Once tings have settled I can see the accommodation filling quickly. I have been following the bookings (look up Scape) and they are starting to fill nicely.
Sounds fun, I wonder if I am too old to get a place. .....
As you indicate, the biggest risk that I can see is if they open then have to close again. Applications are way ahead for one of the institutions that I know - full with UG's and +40% on at least some MSc's . Good numbers of OS students in the mix.
I don't think that we will see the wholesale closures of the spring, to much money at stake, the uni's have spent months getting ready for mixed mode teaching.
I guess the appeal of the larger studio accommodation is that it is going to be better to isolate in if it is needed.
You have more faith in young people staying isolated than me @Monkshood
Parties, drink, raves, drugs, clubs, fornication. Maybe fit in a few online courses if the wake up without Covid-19.
They are offering a good quarantine package for overseas arrivals which should help.
The top end studio flats in Scape Bloomsbury have sold out already.
Spotted mistake in RoW- (although this years numbers are increasing quickly by the day)
2018 2019 2020
UK 353,960:348,890:358,860
EU 26,400 : 26,440 : 22,430
RoW 31,510 : 33,630 : 34,310
tot 411860 : 408960 : 415600
Latest from UCAS - plenty of UG students and it is still early days - Not sure of Post Grad numbers but reasonable to expect similar.
2018 2019 2020
UK 353,960:348,890:358,860
EU 26,400 : 26,440 : 22,430
RoW 31,510 : 34,310 : 34,310
tot 411860 : 408960 : 415600
Further confirmation from UCAS today that UK degree student numbers are up: EU numbers are down by 2k but this is more than made up for by RoW such that total overseas students are up by 2k. Hopefully the accommodation should start filling up quickly now.
From todays Unite update-
'Most undergraduate applicants have now chosen their preferred University for 2020/21, following the 18 June deadline for accepting an offer. UCAS data showed a 1% increase in the number of applicants with an offer to start University this Autumn compared to 2019/20. This reflects a 3% increase in acceptances by UK 18-year olds as increased participation rates more than offset the impact of fewer young people in the population.
The number of students with a deferred start date was down 1% compared to 2019/20 as of 18 June, reflecting the clear desire of young people to attend University, weaker employment prospects and fewer gap year opportunities for school leavers.'
This fits with what I was hearing from prospective UK students.
I had been holding off opening a holding here again (I jumped out in Feb) but started buying again now
Talking to some students who were due to start next year I was surprised at how many were not deferring, mainly as they saw that getting a temp job or travel was going to be problematic. Also the uni's have been saying that they would not defer places just because of covid, so next year would see a lot of competition for places.
What really swung it was taking to someone in admin at one of the top london uni's (an area most important for DIGS), I found out that they have had a big increase in the number of Chinese applicants for Post Grad courses to the extent that they will be pushed for places on the courses next year. They have all paid up deposits so these are not speculative applications.. Not sure why this is - may be the tensions with the US and Australia is having an impact, I had been expecting the latter to be the beneficiary extra students due to covid but surprisingly it may be the UK.