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Hi everyone - I've been reading these posts everyday for about 6 months now (not sure why! Confirmation bias maybe?). I'm young and right at the very start of my investing journey. One of the first companies I ever bought shares in was Dest. God knows why I thought I knew anything at all about the pharmaceutical industry... but here I am. Everything else that I now own is the opposite of Dest (think boring, reliable, compounders) and Dest now makes up a very small part of my portfolio (even smaller today lol).
The whole rollercoaster of Destiny Pharma will remain an invaluable lesson to me about investing and epistemology. Overall, I think it has been an amazing emotional and psychological test.
Even though I will never buy another pharma stock for the rest of my life, I still own my shares and cannot see a reason to lock in losses. The fundamentals of the business appear to be unchanged and (although I admit that I don't really know anything) the share price seems to get dragged around by short-term speculation and market sentiment.
I understand this is a high risk investment and by nature, the share price will be volatile. But I wanted to try and ascertain how many of the people here are long term investors vs short term traders? Are you all the latter?
From my perspective, I'm happy to sit on my shares for years and own a chunk of a business that seems to have created something exceptional and are attempting to perform a serious breakthrough. I watched a video today from this YouTuber ‘Justin Waite’ and he said: “a company whose doing very well and everything is going to plan does not do a strategic review”... wow...I’m sure the entrepreneurs in this forum will be able to explain to the rest of us just how ludicrous of a sentence this is.
The legendary quote that seems to stand out to me, in the context of Destiny Pharma is: “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
As far as I can see, the only risk to my investment in Dest is the fundamentals of the business and my own decisions. Not the volatility of the market.
I do not know if I have ever lost 50% so quickly .
The ones I had and Hardman & co did not like have been doing well since 1st March just gone lol.
Fund Managers, share tipsters and Analyst , no better then my gambles .
News.
Destiny Pharma PLC, down 29% at 15.30p, 12-month range 13.20p-84.00p. The biotechnology company reports loss from operations of GBP6.7 million in 2023, narrowed from GBP7.8 million a year earlier. Pretax loss narrows to GBP6.4 million from GBP7.7 million. "During 2023 we intensified partnering activities for our lead asset, XF-73 nasal, and completed US market analysis that confirmed the significant market opportunity for this asset of up to $1 billion in the US alone. We also continued to progress the scale-up manufacture required for Phase 3 clinical studies and commercialisation. Our target remains progressing XF-73 nasal into Phase 3 clinical studies as quickly as possible," says Chief Financial Officer Shaun Claydon.
The XF-73 Nasal trial is mirroring competitor Ondine, first Ondine said they were going to trial 10,000 patients, then they had to cut that to 4,400, now it seems to be have a moved up again a bit to 5,000. At any rate long term prospects here look OK, but a fund raising in a few months is inevitable imo, without that their negotiating position wil be too weak, also likely to be something of a news drought for a few months, with most of the action in H2.
Main points.
Still in discussions with partners for XF73 licensing deal.
Phase 3 trial will now cost half the original amount, due to modifications. This will attract a lot mor interest now.
The cost of phase 3 trial $10M per arm. Hence looking at non dilutive funding to possibly carry out phase 3 trial on their own. What would XF73 be worth post phase 3 success.
Sebela happy to do small phase 2 trial with solid drug a then straight into phase 3 trial all funded by Sebela.
Not interested in delisting, staying on Aim.
The Rns was again poorly worded but feel much more confident after the presentation.
Also strong points on funding options.
Not delisting. No imminent fund raise. Ongoing discussions with partners on stronger footing.
If they had done a better RNS this would have risen this morning given the previous very weak share price performance.
I agree Volmer.
The RNS was terrible.
The presentation was very strong.
I think this could fully recover today as investors reflect on what was actually said. And considers that against the current market cap.
I approached todays meeting thinking that management had somehow failed in their approach to negotiations with potential XF-73 partners.
Having heard managements' presentation and answers to questions Destiny:
1. Has a better phase 3 program costing less than half of that previously planned.
2. Plans for an enhanced XF-73 proposition including MSRA.
3. Can now resume negotiations.
4. The timescale does not seem significantly longer.
5. XF-73 has been de-risked.
My thoughts are the basic XF-73 business proposition has been enhanced. The delay is not earth shattering. Funding is an issue and management have the urgency to dela with it. My confidence in management has been increased. We have heard nothing to indicate a change in the fundamentals of the products or the business.
I recall one broker forecast sp of around 275p a few months ago. I wonder what they forecast now?
I was hoping a rabbit could be pulled out of the big top hat but all that came out were some promissory notes for 2025.
When CT was appointed he was revered as the new Paul Daniels, well the school report has just come out and the headmaster has noted what he has produced, the answer being "not a lot"
As in the case of Neil Woodford the former now disgraced fund manager who was the darling of the stock market, past success is no guarantee of future glory. I am sure CT is probably just as unhappy as the pi's but the big promises are just that at the moment. We all know money is in short supply for bio's so a company has to produce something startling to gain traction. Dest has a lot going for it but it needs more meat on the bones to get that elusive deal, that'll take much longer, the market doesn't like waiting, that's why they are where they are with the sp.
Well you are aptly named 'nofear'. I am fearful for sure. But saying that the company has £6M in cash which sort of values the company and IP at £8M. That sounds like a lot but in company terms that is tiny so I see some upside. But given the slowness of the company to get underway on the trials - perhaps the board should volunteer to work for free until a deal is done or product emerges? I know those guys aren't short on cash - nice idea but don't see it happening.
I believe in the science and can see the long termd rewards....Great Opportunity to accumlate....
Well falling into the AIM trap of trying to pick the bottom. But bought a tiny bit more as the Market Cap of the company is only 14m! Could lose it all but if any of the Destiny story is true could make a load of cash. Big 'if' though..... Is that a pump? not sure? Need a magic 8 ball!
My earlier post on 15th April has proved me right, more kicking of the can, cannot get a deal that satisfies the company, nearly two years now! CT may be happy with the progress but his appointment hasn't exactly been a light bulb moment.
"That was before that terrible rns. Everybody had high hopes the back end of last year then JW sold and all hell broke loose. CT released that rns which compounded the issue and it's been downhill ever since. Most people inc me expected a deal at the latest Jan '24 but because the rns stated that phase 2 trial might have to be done again people started to be scared and started to sell. CT has not done anything to address people's worries, that says to me the discussions with the companies with a view to a good deal is not forthcoming.
If in the eventuality Dest has to go it alone for the phase 3 trial then a large fund raise will be necessary, that is why the sp is where it is.
They say no news is good news but in this case it's the reverse. Most people's stop losses have been taken out inc mine at 32p which I have stated. If good news happens then I will be back, we all await the update next week to see where the land lies but I fear it will be more kicking the can down the road with promises of a future deal. The market will not like that and the sp could drop further to around 10p. My views which I have said before are that Dest could go private or go on the Nasdaq. To drop from 80p down to this level shows a lack of communication from the board to address people's concerns.
When CT was appointed with Sir Nigel coming back as well everyone thought it was a slam dunk but unfortunately it hasn't worked out as yet and my fear is it won't. GL all, alamo🤘😎"
I fear this is the crux of the problem: 'prevailing perceptions of the commercial potential of antibiotics.'
Bit depressing. I will tune in at 11. Undecided as to whether I'll buy more.
Management Q&A should be an interesting watch on the Investor Meet Company website at 11am.
Dont forget the 3 day rule
Same mear added 20000 shares.
I just added 10,000 as I think the drop a bit over done. I tend to trade in and out of small caps based on news and momentum.
Van I don't like it but having followed IMM for years I know that biotechs take years to take off. The science here seems very good, the management....not so much.
This comment was embedded in the RNS "Currently, the review is not actively considering an offer for the company", which kind of implies that an offer for the company has already been received and rejected.
I'm watching the games here. Firstly Peel Hunt open higher at 22p bid, 3 other mm's open 22p offer. Then Bego opens lower and Peel drop back to 21p bid, then Peel switch and do a big drop to 20p offer and they are joined by Wins so 18-20p now with Peel on both bid and offer and this is all before a share is traded.
For a £20M Mkt Cap they have a lot in the stable, Unfortunately very little is moving forward.
Hopefully the new phase 2 trial with Sebela can be conducted fairly quickly and move quickly into phase 3.
Unfortunately all the time delays will cause more dilution in the future.
I think we will see a 60% drop on the opening
Formerly are you serious? They have been negotiating a partnership deal for xf73 for nearly 2 years and now they are saying they need to change the phase 3 trial as it’s not attractive enough to go into partnership. Along with the fact that they don’t have any form of income there will be huge dilution this year and next.