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Corrected! Sorry for poor grammar!
For strong valuations, you need not only substantial profits, you need strong dividends and 5% yield per year would be the start. So maybe in 5 years time, if 4D are not bought out they may become a FTSE 100 company. But we have some distance to go. Let’s get off AIM first so serious investors can get on board. I am not saying PI’s are not serious, however £50k to £200k is not big. Bring in players with £10-£20 million to invest then you see big valuations.
This company has the ingredients and the motivation as well as some very clever bio technical scientists as well as a very strong team in place.
Let’s see were we go!
Cheers Rich
PS - Kind words Doggy100! Yes I have had some very good success was fortunate to find Avacta at 38p (still invested), Novacyt at 110p (minor holding today), Boohoo at 25p (not now invested), BluePrisim from 120 (not now invested) G4M from 80p, KWS from 180p (not now invested - but should have stayed with it), Bushveld at 5p (nice holding), SMT at 120p (very nice holding) and a core in Fundsmith (a suitable bank for profits - favoured by many a pension fund) which grows at average of 20% per annum. Finding great companies with huge potential after solid research is the way, not following everyone else, but sharing!
I follow richken in Avacta
He got me to get in at 70p
He knows his stuff
Same as ophidian
For strong valuations, you need not a not substantial profits, you need strong dividends and 5% per year would be the start. So maybe in 5 years time, if not bought out they may become a FTSE 100 company. But we have some distance to go. Let’s get of AIM first so serious investors can get on board. I am not saying PI’s are not serious. But £50k to £200k is not big. Bring in players with £10-£20 million to invest then you see big valuations.
This company has the ingredients and the motivation.
Let’s see.
Cheers Rich
Starjump, I don't think anyone can give a totally accurate valuation in the future. But, £20 billion would put 4D Pharma at 25% of GSK. I think those days are a long way off. I like to be somewhat realistic. Currently we have a market cap of £200 million, based on the potential upside from here. Let's see full validations and approvals, see the actual revenue streams and then the valuation will come by itself as the success of the 'biotherapeutics' becomes the next revolution in treatments.
I would be delighted if you end up being correct mind!
Cheers, Rich
@RichKen I really hope that 4D would see past a mere $2bn offer. $20bn+ would be a more accurate representation of the future worth of this business if live biotherapeutics are proven and 4D's current portfolio of approximately 1000 patented bacterial strains are taken into consideration.
Imac thanks for the reply, I know we got the results coming very soon for IBS and news sounds positive for the incoming data, I know IBS is current news, im just trying to piece together the timeline of incoming news, covid update arrival, NAS listing, etc but im most intrested in the covid n IBS, when do you think we will have the covid update? Cases up today in the UK, looking like its slowly getting a bit messy out there again
Nearly had a heart attack last two days with this one, she swings hard both ways lol
Good evening RichKen. Great to see you hear. I often read your interesting posts on Avacta.
imac1, good evening, I am sure you have been here sometime and as a new investor (3 weeks), having built a holding now well over £100k having researched this fully and know the size of the global market firstly for the IBS treatment and seeing the massive potential for asthma and Covid19 lung treatments as well as many other opportunities it is very easy to see on each project completion very good value being achieved on each level. However, I expect that we will be likely bought out within 12 to 18 months. I don't see a value of less than $1.5 billion with success on IBS, but with multiple projects completed and becoming revenue strong the value should easily be above $2 billion (assuming a US Buyer, which I think is most likely).
$2 billion is £1.55 billion so a share price of £11.41 at todays exchange rate.
So growth is strong to a minimum of £4 easily, then looking at NASDAQ and dual listing would bring huge upside and most likely additional funding. Then we could easily see strong upside in H1 2021. With potential offers from large Pharmaceutical giants in H2.
What are your thoughts as I guess you have been living a breathing 4d Pharma for some time.
Very pleased with my holding and happy to see value appreciation of the year/years ahead.
Cheers, Rich
Strap in!
Shows”
FunkyS
Seres have one Phase 3 result and are now valued at $2.5B we are currently valued at £200M like I say I’m saying 400p minimum on good news. With another Phase 2 result due in Q4 for no other than a Covid 19 Bio therapeutic you can bet it won’t drift back but climb towards results. If our Covid therapeutic shoes good results then boom £1B mkt cap incoming.
Strong finish always a good sign... Come on 4D lets smash the £2 barrier and upwards from there.
looooool @ rest assured.
gosh.
Zen
Yes tomorrow morning would be lovely :)
The mm's can have my shares..... £10 each is reasonable I'd say
MM's trying everything to unsettle a few :)
Imac
We will see soon enough, I pray we hit your target, but let's no get ahead of ourselves, it will be what it will be, we all want it to reach the moon, not long to wait now, we have the dangerous bit out of the way, there should be a clear run up to results now, hopefully anyway
Terrie never a decent counter argument and that is what I love about this share so hard for the derampers and what makes for a great board up until now (even the derampers are invested in this one ;-) ) If no one cares to answer fine I ll tell you this in my opinion not 1p of Blautix is priced in at current SP levels. The 40-60p increase since our pre covid SP could be argued is off the back of positive Oncology results from MRx0518. So once again someone come up with figures that contradict my own showing a SP of above 400p+ from positive Blautix results.
I will add 400p+ is being conservative and in my opinion could go way higher, this share is sitting on the watch list of some major players in the Pharma wolrd.
imac
Those cautionary noises generally emit from short term traders..
Sorry but almost laughable some of the advice on here 4D was trading at a regular 100-120p plus before Coronavirus shook the markets from Dec - Mar . So in effect we are 40p up currently with fantastic progress in Oncology with MRx0518 and Blautix (IBS therapeutic) results due any day now. Further to that we have a Covid Phase II trial in progress and with wave 2 in motion recruitment for that will pick up and results due in Q4. So for anyone saying the results are priced in try looking at a longer chart than last month. So I will ask again does any one posting words of caution think the progress and news on Blautix is only worth 40p if already priced in...!!!
Comparing 4D to any other pharma is simply ridiculous.
What I'm saying is, I do expect the SP to react positively but the AIM market can be completely irrational at times, there's no point second guessing the SP. If the results are good and the update is positive then the SP will follow but you can never predict the market, the company has the potential to be huge, we're at the forefront of microbiome technology and are on the brink of ground breaking news. The company will flourish and the SP will follow but don't panic if you don't get a sudden impact, it will come over time one way or another. GLA
what you anticipating? more akin to Zak's analysis of a 210p close
@Trendz - same with VAL and SKIN. Trashed after what should have been positive news items. The lift is pre-priced in the runway.
Undoubtedly the news will increase the SP but market expects positive IBS results so may not be monstrous 100 percent Plus gain. Learned that this with Novacyt - 600m contract awarded and the market cap went up about 20 million. Market expected it as expectations were high. Same with Boohoo today - unbelievable results and it’s down.