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logic should dictate that a bounce will come some point. Need it though sustained and not sold into that can only come once SO is fully closed out ad ideally on great Data readouts to ensure buying support
GLA, its been a journey here so far that's for sure
topped up again today. delighted to buy back my shares at the same price of more than a year ago.
rebound comming.
choo choo!!
Spot on !!!
Ticked up the last 5 posts - not mine ‘cos can’t:-)
These milestones were set with 4D at about £1 if I remember right.
With options at 85p, Oxford will be in here longer term than cop-out Ollie. And they’ll want a lot highr than 85p.
It is hard sitting on humungous losses. But this was impossible to call.
It really yet again all comes down to standardised efficacy of the science. Forte were a one-horse pony. Lots of irons in fire.
Not that I’m feeling good.
90p ave.
Tough times for a few of us.
I had imagined they would be tougher than that and maybe linked to market cap.
That's very good news indeed. Basically another $18m reasy and waiting providing bare minimum achieved.
Great spot RP- those milestones are eminently achievable.
And also reaffirm that an efficacy rate of as little as 10% would be commercially meaningful.
I agree
There is much that we do not know. We are bottom of the pile. Rpstock’s info is very very important. Not asking for the Moon are they. Even if bod are already rich enough to stump
Up 1m each, it is not common in AiM to get any directors committing a farthing.
This is the darkest time. Hold you nerve and keep head above water , or bail out.
Time of lowest sentiment.
Been here so many times.
We are mushrooms kept in the dark and have to work on snippets.
RP thank you
That's a really helpful post RPStock, thanks.
I find that reassuring in some ways, as future funding does not have to be contingent on Blautix progressing to P3 then (that had been my principal concern), and the MRX0518 targets seem conservative based on data so far.
Maybe Sangi is right that the delay releasing any update until now is due to delays with a third party, or Oxford Finance's Collateral Agent then...
I have crl repeatedly and got nothing beyond a stock response. Their IR is shambolic.
I was confident in this, given their investment at £1.10, before the BOD gifted themselves a load of options at 53p, exercisable over a 10 year period, with no investment upfront.
What if the share price continues to implode, what's to stop the BOD thinking 53p is now too ambitious, and they'll offer a load more options at 25p instead?
I've de-risked considerably in light of all the above, although I still retain a significant holding.
check this link: https://sec.report/Document/1830162/000149315221022583/ex10-14.htm
milestones for next tranches from Oxford are:
“Second Draw Period Commencement Date” is the earliest date by which all of the following have been accomplished to Collateral Agent’s reasonable satisfaction: (i) Borrower achieving (A) positive data, including at least a 10% observed clinical benefit, in the Phase II trials of Borrower’s product candidate MRx0518 plus Keytruda in at least 20 patients with renal cell carcinoma (2 patients out of 20) and (B) positive data, including at least a 10% observed clinical benefit, from the non-small cell lung cancer cohort of at least 10 patients (1 patient out of 10); (ii) first patient dosed in Borrower’s product candidate MRx0518’s Urothelial Carcinoma Phase II trial in combination with Bavencio (avelumab); and (iii) Borrower’s product candidate Blautix advancing into a Phase 3 trial or Thetanix advancing into a Phase 2 trial, or Borrower achieving positive topline data sufficient to advance Borrower’s product candidate MRx4DP0004 into Part B of the Phase I trial in asthma.
1)I think you should sell if you have lost faith.
2)Hold if you have faith in the multiple sciece applications of biomes. And having written to BOD perhaps.
3) Buy if you have cash.
I don’t know of many companies who pander to shareprices. Or to shareholders. 4D no worse than most others.
Any information not already in the public domain is a target for prosecution. Thos who issue soothing RNS’s are often dead in the water soon after . See BLOE. Watching their presentations and reading RNS’s was like a 19thcentury charlatan on a wagon selling wares.
First step is to ask them directly.
Or sell and give shares to shorters.
It was only because a poster yesterday called it interest-free. Did seem strange.
Have ypu emailed these points to the BOD??
You should get a reply.
One of the posters here got a fulsome reply on Xmas eve from Alex.
Best way is to ask them.
I’m not at home so can’t give you the IR email but it’s on their site.
All I will say is that I resonate with concetns-you have mentioned them before-but 53p options implies their path is to have the s/p significantly above that point having put £1.10 p Placing option(£1m each) in. That’s a lot of money to flush away or gamble without faith in the outcomes.A lot of outcomes.
Yes, communication has been vacant, but so was the Nasdaq listing out of the blue. Contact them?
Crl the loan is not interest free.
If certain milestones are not met, an interest rate in excess of 8% will be applied from September 2023 - and the Board have given ZERO clarity on what those milestones are, and what is required to get tranches 2 and 3 of the financing through. Interest only payments are required until then. Even if these unspecified milestones are met, >8% interest will be applied from September 2024.
The lack of any transparency around the Oxford milestones, alongside the continued failure to give any Keytruda update, the failure to bring on board any institutional investors, the failure to find any P3 partner for Blautix, the dishing out of share options unrelated to any performance of the company, and the apparent apathy to a persistent share price erosion, as well as long term investors, are increasingly red flags for me.
Please truant this chatboard.
You are of no assistance to anyone.
Needle stuck on record.
"£30m MCap fair value"?? Fair value is open to opinion but it certainly is in no way correlated with whether Oliviera is still selling. The share price may well be affected by SO's selling but "fair value" doesn't change, whatever it may be.
truant
/'tru??nt/
noun
a pupil who stays away from school without leave or explanation.
Probably skipped school when mcap calculation was discussed. Good luck to you champ.
Phil you are right. They have offered Oxford options at 85p. Encouraging. Need to pass certain milestones which are not explained in RNS. I believe $30 mill on loan is interest free.
There are so many areas 4D are involved in here. And some , like asthma and IBS are a huge proportion of population. Why else would Merck and Oxford be here??
I do not expect a s/p recovery soon but the science is what it all depends on and all results to date are positive. Segment sentiment and Oliveira selling are where the proble has been. Company and activities have not changed.
Sell and give away
Buy
Hold if you can’t buy.
I was in SNG at 46 p in 2020 when it went up 500% in a day. Sentiment for 6 months had been dire. Special case as it was Covid.
But it also was involved in pulmonary disease and cancer.
When emotion and fear runs high, it’s so easy to forget the fundamental facts here. I just wish I had more funds to add more rather than the small top ups at the moment.
1. Current mcap is $97m (£71m)
2. 4D Pipeline https://www.4dpharmaplc.com/en/developing-science/pipeline
3. Company has cash to run until the end of 2022 (I believe that's right, because of Oxford Finance, correct me if wrong)