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4D Pharma Temporarily halts patient enrollment in clinical trials for cancer, asthma, Parkinson's disease drugs (MT newswires).
I think at the moment the chance of PIs getting anything out of this mess is less than 5%.
Wish it was different but all of the above last gasp miracles would have already happened if the reasons were good enough.
I should caveat I hope I am wrong, as I got caught sleeping here and got stung for an amount that won't put me on the street but I am not best pleased about losing.
Thanks both @soundsrisky & @porky9. I agree with your calculations, but you'd have thought the BOD have been forced to cut costs as part of the admin process, therefore reducing capital required considerably?
All guesswork at the moment, and there is a string chance shareholders get nothing. This is the last company where I expected something like this to happen, but I guess we have to pay the price for ignoring the red flags. If it ends up as MBO, there might be a string legal case of fraud for litigation.
@Porky
For any pharma looking to expand into microbiome space- this is a unique 'just add water (cash)' opportunity. They buy 4D for peanuts and slap their logo on it.... I.e. Merck/ Pfizer/ Sanofi Microbiome Division. Btw peanuts for big pharma is anything below 250-300m, possibly even higher than that depending on the pharma.
In case this happens we just need to hope there are 2 or more parties interested and decide to put a bid in there that is more in line with the value of 4D research and the pipeline.Fingers crossed, but a long shot, fully admit that.
When it comes to a PE backed MBO - I think that would just add to a torrent of lawsuits BoD can fully expect I thinknif all this goes south. It makes the case even more compelling that it is not just incompetence that's behind all this.
We need to wait and hope. Really angry it's come to this.
It does seem like us holder's will get shafted here, either heavy dilution or cheap buyout. I am down to the tune of £150k, so not pretty.
One option surely is for the administrator to offer the company for sale as a whole or in lots based around individual drugs , see what comes back after say 3 weeks and choose the best combination that gives OF their cash and a future of some sort for all the projects. Investors will be at the back of their thoughts imv.
Porky, you can keep wishing and convincing yourself DDDD PI’s get something back.
Your all getting zero, not a penny.
I’ve explained this to you all for many months.
Only thing DDDD PI’s need to now do, take legal action for the deliberate failings on the part of this business pushing itself into convenient administration.
A lender wouldn’t ever force this business to hand over a loan payment knowing it’s had so much in terms of pipeline.
Wake-up
It is pure speculation and total guesswork
Lets face it there is a heck of a lot of IP at 4D including over 2,000 patents, 14 drugs at various stages, the labs and manufacturing facilities etc etc and goodwill has to have some value. However its totally anyones guess IF we as SH will see anything back from that value
We read that the future vaccines milestone payments from Merck were worth something, cant remember what that was now was it 15m or something? The cash burn was 2m a month. The debt that was being called in was 13.86 USD which is, call it £11.5m it had some cash at bank as it wasn't due to run out of working capital until Q4 call it 5m.
So VERY rough back of cig packet calculation, for it to relist and have enough capital to trade forwards for the next year as a going concern until it can position Blautix or do a further share issue, get milestone payments in etc etc and pay off the debt OF called in its probably going to need £35m of capital or something like that is my guess?
The administrators will just want to cover debt and earn their fees. Not sure how difficult it would be just to take the IP over at a fire sale price without 4D staff to work it. An offer to take it over for the IP would need at least some staff to run it and transfer in under tupe. I cant see Duncan working for some other Biotech just for wages and write off his own investment and he did have loads of shares in this business and options and own cash invested.
So i think only three ways this can go:-
1. Some miracle finance deal arranged for the business to relist so that it can later raise capital on the NASDAQ in which case it comes back online and everyone happy. To do that i'm guessing it would need the £35m as outlined to give it a years working capital. Cash is normally worth 1.5 to 2.00 X. The mcap at 16p when we crashed was 29m hence it would relist and imo the SP would rise. Plus not to mention all those short would want to close out. As i don't short myself, not sure what happens when you sell stock you don't own when shares are suspended? But i would say in this situation it would give us the positive outcome we want.
2. They actually find a buyer like one of the big pharma players who make a low ball offer but one that delivers some value like 50m and its sold as a going concern in which case its potentially a good result for SH And good for Duncan as he instantly gets all his own shares paid and options cashed and comes out with an OK return - This is what i would do if i was Duncan.
3. Unfortunately, High chance that SH will be completely shafted and they may try some sort of Private equity backed MBO to buy all the assets at fire sale prices where the administrators get the fees and money to pay off OF and the PE house gives Duncan a load of shares as part of the deal and the working capital to trade. The downside to this is that he might need more cash later in which case the PE take more and more ownership until he is fo
Important to remember that the doom monger shorters and leeches will hang around until it’s clear one way or the other which way this is going. If it crashes and burns then they will no doubt do well for themselves and be pleased that they have contributed to the demise of a treatment for cancer and other serious diseases (yes, I think they are scum as well). Alternatively, if a GOOD deal is found then could be a strong recovery and shorts will need to get out. The more they can sow doubt the better (for them).
Who knows @dave. All speculation and might never happen (I hope it does). Good deal, backed by Merck or another and could be a strong comeback. Bad deal, raise and suspect many might sell. All sorts of combinations in between are possible. Let’s hope the wait isn’t too long.
@porky9 what do you think the SP will be assuming they get Financing, and company come back?
@Sang
speculation - you don't know - you are just guessing.
Lets see what the administrators come back with. Hopefully the business gets financed and saved or sold and shareholders recover something rather than nothing.
Outlook bleak but still hope it can be saved until we hear otherwise. Everything else is wild speculation, he said she said i think - Fact is we don't know yet
Good luck all genuine holders
I think Oliveira sold because he didn't like the Oxford deal.
He started reducing from July onwards which was the time of the loan deal
Don’t pay any attention to the twaddle he comes out with. It’s venomous tripe.
The guy sits on a high-horse. Best filtered.
Not blautix
Sang , do you think the results caused Steve O to sell or was he aiming to push the sp down for other reasons, I . e to help short sellers ?
They put the money in before they got the trial results.
They had 2 responses in Part A in RCC and 0 out of 20 in Part B
Not sure the BoD would have put in 1.5mil of their own money if they thought the science was worthless. Would you?
There were 0 out of 20 positive responses for 0518 /Keytruda.
4 had stable disease for 6 months which means their tumours did not grow by more than 20%.
It is unclear whether this is down to 0518.
Blautix Phase 3
0518 + Keytruda 4/10 positive response
Nothing wrong with questionning pipeline. But I think DP would have done more to support s/p in order to keep company going, than lose all his shares. All published data was positive. If proven otherwise, it is witholding of market sensitive msterial and open tomprosecution.
It will be interesting to see how hard DP & Co fight for the company. I have a small suspicion and it’s only my opinion that the pipeline isn’t showing a great deal of promise. The reason I say that is because if it was surely finance would have been easier to raise. Someone like Merck who know the science much better than you or I would be bailing them out/buying them if they thought or knew any of these drugs being developed was a game changer. I know this will be taken as a negative message and I don’t want it to be just trying to make sense of how 4d ended up here. If I was DP and I knew the drugs were not showing sufficient promise would I plough on with limited chance of success for years or default on purpose and start the process of getting the monkey off my back. He’s more heavily invested than anyone on here and it’s his job so he’ll be feeling the pain as much and probably more than anyone. The frustrating thing is microbiome medicine does have a lot of promise look at the c-difficile breakthrough and what it did for that company. I suppose there is never any guarantee when you set off on this voyage of discovery and I admire them for trying but maybe they just didn’t find the right microbiomes. I still want them to come out of admin and fly but I am questioning the pipeline.
I want Michael Highbar’s /Taberham’s and the others’ comments to be on top.
Better than the darkness brought by a dementor.
Go to Telegram and join the shareholders’ action group. Covenants were breached and we were not informed.
That is willful neglect. A breach of the law.
Open to legal action.
I prefer a positive company outcome, but who is gonna give a monkeys about shareholders?? I like the positivity and want the company up and running but encourage looking after ourselves here.
The company could start up again without us. No illusions.
Talk is useless.
Join shareholder group or roll over and leave it to the vultures.
CP
Ive just bought 4 tickets and will re-ciprocate!
Actually gogs, if that happens then yes, you have a deal!! :0)
Actually they can have the OF loan paid off and £40m in cashflow to cover the next 18 months - though I will need 51% to do it!
So if you win it CP, will you pay OF there loan back, give 4D £15m in an interest free loan, and make yourself feel really good, by knowing you have salvaged a desperate group of shareholders from deep despondency?