4d Pharma Plc Share Chat (DDDD)

Another big sell printed. 76k (GBP)

Markets are bloody ugly but we are well oversold here, SP on the floor, volumes low but i wont tempt fate but its looking all all up from here. Positive close stateside makes a refreshing change.

A fund or at the very least a decent family office buying in here and we could start to finally see a material shift north from here, you never know.

See how tomorrow goes, we have been bouncing around the same level the last few days. That FDA update due on Blautix would be a useful boost for us, we could do with at least that one dropping....

GLA

Does that give you enough confidence to get back?

He did. Best interview he has done. Love the 4D website and videos, really are a class above and ready for the big time in my view. Just need to improve those comms.

I actually think Duncan did a great job as a salesman in his last interview. He was actually passionate about the products-a primary factor.
Fortune sometimes favours the brave-sometimes not. But with all the data and illnesses being tested for…for goodness sale.!Marie Curie..Pasteur..Fleming…Jenner….all new sciences.

Last week I said worth keeping an eye on Evelo as would have been running short of cash.

They have just today raised $80m so shows there's still investor appetite for microbiome stocks.

Wasn't a typical placing as they managed to do it without intermediaries (bankers). Mostly from a fund called Flagship who funded them before they listed them.

Was a shelf registration deal

DEMPS... same here. Don't trade really, mostly invest with conviction after my due dilligence and buy on the dip/average down if need be - but dont swing trade.

For me this is a stock that either falls through (in my opinion unlikely) or goes epic. The company is clearly struggling with market sentiment and needs to reassure us re finances but I hope it has too much going for it to simply fold in 5 months (as market appears to be fearing might happen).

And management has too much invested (financially and professionally) to just let the ship go down - in other words believe that Duncan is not maybe a great salesman but is a very savvy businessman. What he has built (with his team) is in my opinion really impressive.

We just really need hopefully some good news, and soon.

Just my opinion as a non-expert, not providing any advice.

Hopefully a trading update alongside the AGM will give this some direction, it’s been painful watching the SP drip away over recent weeks since results, & given some positive news. I bought as a long term investment so v happy to hold, but would be nice to see it back towards 50p at least. Gla

Like my username

Fortune favours the brave

RiskReepReward.... for someone who's chosen that particular nickname you are being a bit too risk averse :)

Yes... things are not ideal, thanks for letting us now. I heard somewhere that those who take risks reap rewards :)

Good luck :)

No doubt down as always ever since I got into this, down a fortune and no sign of this recovering day in day out imho….. let’s hope I’m wrong!

Eyes peeled lol

Breakout? Maybe - but up ,or down is the question... ;0)

https://twitter.com/thomthompi1/status/1529454060704776193?s=21

I thought Duncan did a really good interview last time. Showed real interest in the products per se and was almost vibrant. I think IR is just poor, which is John Doyle’s job and he’s not doing it. Ultimately it belittles the value of the stock if they don’t reply to shareholders….so 2 unanswered emails is out of order.
Still a long time until Q4 funding peripd, so lots can happen here. Why get nervous on this? From the last interview, I can’t see D and A letting this company just dissolve…..especially after the surprisingly(!!) good data !!!

nm

At the time of the vaccine collaboration with MSD back in Oct 19 Daria Hazuda, Chief Scientific Officer of MSD said this
“A key element of our focus in the Exploratory Science Center is the evaluation of emerging new areas of biology that have the potential to offer major beneficial impact to human health.
By applying 4D's MicroRx® technology we hope to gain meaningful insights into the role for the host microbiome in modulating the immune response and ultimately protection conferred by vaccines."

So 3 years on they’ve seen a pretty much clean bill of health for both safety & tolerability on every aspect of the 4D MicroRx platform & not only that but some very significant inroads in meeting some pretty impressive endpoints too on virtually all areas 4d has targeted to date & more specifically in cohorts with one of their own best selling drugs Keytruda

Under the terms of the agreement with MSD , 4D's proprietary MicroRx® platform will be paired with their own expertise in the development and commercialisation of novel vaccines, to discover and develop LBPs as vaccines in up to three undisclosed indications.
4D has the right, subject to certain conditions, to cause MSD to purchase $5 million in ordinary shares in 4D during the first 12 months of the collaboration.
In addition to an upfront cash payment,
for each indication, 4D will be eligible to receive up to $347.5 million in option exercise and development and regulatory milestone payments, plus tiered royalties on annual net sales of any licensed products derived from the collaboration.
( so $347.5 per indication x 3 so up to $1.044,000 in total )
Additionally , if any of that happens MSD will cover all the costs to take any of them to commercial endpoint .
In the last financial statement Axel said this (and I’m pretty sure that this was ratified by Duncan in one of this years interviews where he stated that good results had continued on the vaccine collaboration into 2022)

“We continue to advance our ground-breaking collaboration with MSD in the field of vaccines.
This collaboration, which is associated with potential milestone payments totaling over $1 billion across up to three undisclosed indications, utilizes MicroRx® to discover and develop Live Biotherapeutics for vaccines.
In 2021 we continued to make good progress in this collaboration.

A quick resume then ..so bearing in mind the progress & results 4d have delivered over the 3 year period with LBPs coupled with the fact that this is precisely the kind of emerging new areas of science the MSD CSO is looking for … then I think it’s fair to say there is a pretty decent chance of MSD either taking us out completely or investing further but time will tell as always
Point being I think this will happen but that’s just my take on it and I’m defo no expert , I’m not an adviser I’m just invested here LT so Dyor & make ur own decisions . GLA

The choice we are all making here is...

1. If you think company will run out of cash in Q4 - you probably don't want to be there if that happens. That means you think that despite a very solid pipeline and relationship with Merck company will go down cause we're in bear market. If you think that you know what to do.

2. You think company will find cash on the back of its, in my opinion, impressive pipleine despite bear market (Oxford Finance, Merck, partnerships, loans). In which case the day that RNS arrives we, as PIs, will probably struggle.to jump in before the SP already erupts. For most PIs investing on online investor platforms that happens to be the case to my knowledge. So if you believe that 4D will find cash than you probably are holding/adding to ensure you are not paying through your nose once the good news is hopefully in.

We would all love to have an option of investing at low levels when it's safe to invest - but stock market doesn't play fair, especially for us PIs.

So make your own decision - the above is just my opinion, not an expert/advisor. Good luck to us all.

4D is such an interesting proposition.
I added a further 10,000 at around 33p yesterday.
I see that this Sangijuelas character keeps posting free advice to those they have never met or (in my case) do not believe even exist. Methinks he does protest too much and I am intrigued why anyone would spend so much time trying to drive down sentiment here. Sangijuelas is actually Spanish for leech; I wonder whose blood is being sucked to sustain this one? They boasted about successfully shutting down a poster who was also accused of being fake but certainly hundreds of thousands of shares were bought in multiples of 10,000 and 10,123 (an oddly specific quantity which I don't understand) and I still see this unusual quantity keep appearing among other purchases in 10,000 multiples almost every single day. Is someone building a huge position here whilst Sangijuelas is being paid to talk the price down. They say not. But I hope so because I keep adding whatever I can afford every time I see Sangijuelas make a negative post and the price drops. I feel truly sorry for those individual investors who are being led to lose their investments this way.
Sangijuelas, remind us all again of your benevolent motives, lest we forget.

Thanks Richie. I will definitely take another look here if they can get funding sorted.

They may still conjure up some data on the NSCLC cohort in the meantime.

Agreed, wigwammer. So many things could pop up out of the blue from 4D that are not expected. From this level it could easily 100% in a day on trial data, oxford finance or many other potential triggers. 3 or 4 times that (or more) if a buyout was mentioned.

Sang, I wasn't specifically referring to you in my post as I've been following your comments for a while and understand your reasons for exiting 4D (for the moment). Despite the regular abuse you get on here for posting anything other than daily repetitive ramp-o-thons, it's an AIM share so anything could happen and you can only follow your gut (pun intended).

I personally think the board will sort the financing out and agree with what Porky just said that Duncan doesn't seem overly concerned about it, it's a difficult but not an unsurmountable task which I am sure they are focusing on with urgency. Let's hope he's got something in the works, he's got skin in the game so he's hardly likely to be taking this lightly.

I thought that John Doyle's section of the presentation was an awkward one for him to deliver. Like he had to get in and get out of there ASAP without basically saying that the funding isn't sorted yet beyond Q4 but they are working on it. Trust them to sort it or leave now at bargain basement prices and have to buy in higher price later, simple as that unless it goes south! You take your pick and risk tolerance with your own cash.

My point was more along the lines that over the next 12 months there doesn't seem to be much more data coming out from what Duncan said and the timelines he gave, so people will get bored and look to deploy elsewhere for the time being. Updates around the funding will help and put 4D in position for a large move upwards, but it's the data that will drive this to where we all want it to be and hopefully towards a buyout.

I'm in and staying in.

Oh F me, the harbinger of doom has just shown up with his negative pearls of wisdom.

On that note, i will back later much to do. No doubt return to his 30 posts of b@llocks about why he wouldn't invest here, why he sold out and why he feels the constant f'cking need to keep telling us this.

Don't feed the pond life guys, you cant reason with the unreasonable

GLA

Well Duncan still has much to update us on but the presentation slot yesterday did at least highlight some of the salient points which are good for Investors to know.

Won't highlight again as my post 13.01 Tuesday covers it in spades.

I guess you have to make your own calls. Granted buying volume low but equally selling volume low, in fact the market volume per sae isn't great. Markets do have a habit of changing fairly quickly. We have a lot going on here and in very much oversold territory, those that want out have bailed and the deadwood cleared, so it wont take much to move this now from here.

If 4D are getting close to a vaccine milestone payment later this year then Merck would have a choice to make do they pay it or just take the company out? Milestone payment 330m v current market cap 60m - not much to think about is it? If i was Merck i would table a bid now whilst markets are depressed and pick this up on the cheap.

Lets see how events unfold. I genuinely don't think Duncan is concerned about working capital, that's the impression i get, in which case he is certain of a likely event changing the landscape fairly soon. He claims they are funded to Q4, potentially oxford finance on top taking us into 2023 but with so many updates due and milestone events scheduled to land before then, anything could happen and he knows this.

This is just a waiting game now as i see it and i really don't think we are that far off. I remain confident. What is it WB says.. BUY when others are fearful...

GLA

I didn't exit due to a lack of patience.

I exited due to the uncertainty around funding.

I see John Doyle was skirting the line between truth and fiction yesterday.

Saying that they had drawn down $12.5m from Oxford when the actual funding that was unconditionally made available was only $5m.

Red flag for me