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Comment from the broker this morning, where the shares trade on a fwd (next year) PER of 7 based on what appear to be conservative numbers.
2023 was an incredibly tough year in online B2C media. The macro weakness combined with platform volatility impacted publishers hard. DBOX didn’t take it lying down, it adapted to the platform hit via expansion of the social follower base
and drove session values. This resulted in delivering a modest profit and the business has seen a marked improvement in activity. With TV Guide also integrated successfully and contributing we expect to see a significant profit recovery even in a stable market. We flagged the upside risk to estimates in our January note and lift our EBITDA expectation for 2024 by 44%, albeit from a low base. We expect any improvement in UK macro to feed through and drive additional margin expansion.
Management continues to prove they can adapt and progress portfolio development in the toughest of environments. Beyond 2024 we expect a macro improvement and continuation of the optimisation of the portfolio to drive profitability. The shares should continue to recover as DBOX executes on the growth in mobile advertising opportunity.
Bit frustrating that the language seems to have shifted from problems at ED now "showing signs of a potential resolution". Previous RNS implied that the issue was fully resolved...
Otherwise results are as expected. Should benefit from a recovery in ad markets with the US election this year, and looks like TVguide is already performing well.
But perhaps...maybe...this is the inflection point
Hopefully we should get a trading update in the next few weeks. Interested to see how the acquisitions during the past 6 months are playing out.
You think people are short term trading an illiquid nanocap that is difficult to get in and out of in any size?
Don't think so...
Don't get spiked here, traders will be dumping very soon.
Overhanging clearing it would seem
Look at that delayed buy just showing 259k at 3.85p or £10000, this is a bear market and there's some lumpy buys in this
quiet stock. Amazing they can get the size, that must have made a dent in whatever overhang it is
Looks like only about £20k traded today but admittedly it's the most movement in a while.
I bought some last week around 3.33p nobody else did, thought it was good value, today well buyers all over it perhaps the penny has dropped at how cheap it is with all that cash
Some reassuring comments in the Investor Meet presentation today. Obviously it's been a bit of a disaster so far this year (particularly at ED) but James & co. seem very tuned in to the issues.
All due respect to Jollyspeculator, but the hurricane was unavoidable. Most digital publishers are coping with the same conditions. If the 12m can get revenues back on track, they can return to the 'buy and build' plan. At that point I would assume they'll be looking for sites with multiple revenue streams - ie subs (or strong potential for subs) plus e-commerce/events/podcasts.
Very unlikely the algo changes will be reversed, hence the purchase of the 12m soc media followers. Key thing will be visitor numbers after the 12m have come fully on-stream and whether overall group traffic gets close to where it was before algo changes.
Well it looks like the business is at worst breakeven, so I don't see why it should trade below net cash. I agree that the viability of the business model is currently a concern though, and I think that it's best to assume that the algo issues don't magically reverse course.
We need to see updated visitor numbers and ad revenue to make an assessment.
Not a bargain yet
the model is kaputt, and what replaces it is unknown
the management team has sailed the good ship straight into a hurricane which hardly inspires
I'd have thought down below cash would be a bargain
tp 1.5p
They will get additional reach from the 12m social media followers and as a result more traffic and more revenue. This share is now a bargain.
Not too sure how i can be blamed when i hold no shares, and am not a director - therefore have zero knowledge as to decisions being made.
Another Higginson calamity
It's been obvious for a while
Aim never fails does it.
Report news late on in the day always implies the same doesn’t it!
Also interested to understand the thinking with the most recent acquisition. They've effectively bought 12m Facebook followers - what value do they expect that to bring to top line (given the comment around detrimental algo changes)?