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Not high enough to turn the heads of Oaktree and Hoskings.
According to Property Eye Connells increased but to £3.25, getting interesting
D Day is here for CW
Will it be
1) Alchemy
2) Small capital raise from existing investors
3) Connells all cash offer
I think probability runs in the above order... what’s peoples thoughts? Alchemy seem very confident.
What is particularly galling about all this is Oaktree, .Alchemy's chums have had a seat on the Board (Calum Kramer )so been up all close and personal .
The BODS rebuffed Paterson in the summer and quickly shuffled Alchemy in the frame recommending a very unsatisfactory proposal with shades of doom and gloom meanwhile in full knowledge In September & October that he branches are blasting away .
A set of BODS which have shafted shareholders all the way down the line
I think year end results will be very strong finish.!
Pipeline is booming at the moment and exchanges following
CW branch operations actually very profitable now, I would guess after lockdown any loss makers would have been shut. Lettings is a big part now, 70,000 managed and they will need everyone of them to provide consistent income through any choppy waters over next 18 months
It’s an interesting move by Alchemy, they’ve shown their hand first and then also published support for their deal. The reason I think Hoskings supports is bulletproof is mainly due to the fact he’s pledged support for it before seeing Connells offer - why not wait until 5pm Monday and then declare support.
It’ll be an interesting run in.
Alchemy with Hoskings and Oaktree go close. With Paterson they win the crown.
Connells without Hoskings and Oaktree is impossible to secure the votes needed.
If Connells did win the crown, arguably the foot soldiers in CW are more capable and the brands (not the holding company) have better local reputations then Connells themselves, it will be interesting to see how much synergy between the companies there would be once the buyout is complete. Office closures yes but i sense that would be Connells side aswell as CW.
Interesting times ahead, plenty of skin in the game myself. I invested in April 2020 so watching this one like a hawk.!
Another robust week at the coalface smashing the sales in what is normally a relative quiet time of year.Still packing them away, yet you wouldn't know it form the lack of positive PR. as the predators move in for the kill
True Although he has pledged his support there is nothing to stop him from changing his mind should a new offer materailise .The pledge doesn't appear as irrevocable
The fact remains that even with Hoskings Alchemy still need to get 75% and in order to do that Paterson 10% + becomes important
All still very fluid and an exciting week ahead . I think many shareholders would want to see the year end results before committing themselves There seems to be an unhealthy rush on!
Agreed, the definitely do not need to gift Alchemy the company.
Hoskings and Oaktree together backed by a few smaller shareholders will give Alchemy the crown. Hoskings released this yesterday
‘Countrywide received a second offer from private equity firm Alchemy Partners, which immediately won backing from its biggest shareholder.
Hosking Partners, owned by tycoon Jeremy Hosking, said the fresh proposal was ‘a major improvement’ and pledged support. The firm has a 20.9 per cent stake in Countrywide’
If they hold 21% & Oaktree nearly 10% it’s impossible for Connells to win the crown with out one or either of them. Hoskings is the king maker and it looks like him & Oaktree have already made their decision on which way this goes!!
Yes Oaktree singing from the same hymn sheet ,Alchemy and Oaktree were bedfellows first time around the houses in 2009 when they teamed up with Polygon to acquire Countrywide from Apollo who had paid £1bn 2 years earlier.
Countrywide don't need to gift Alchemy the company who are offering an umbrella now the sun has popped its nose from behind the clouds.
I think we might be surprised at the level of offer Connells might arrivei n at
Would be surprised if Oaktree back tracked , them and Alchemy were involved in the recovery in 08 for Countrywide. Also Hoskings won’t back a sell off I don’t think to Connells unless it’s an ‘offer that can’t be refused’
YTD high is 355p so anything north of this will be considered in my opinion.
I still think Alchemy will win the race but we will see a last ditch offer on Monday morning from Connells.
Both deals are complex for different reasons, Pros and Cons either way.
Whatever happens, the winner will need support from Oaktree and Hoskings, presently Alchemy have both and I bet both oppose a full sale off at almost any price under 400p. Let’s not forget that Alchemy do have some former CW heavyweights in association with, public shouldn’t be fooled, if Alchemy get the nod there are some big hitters in the shadows that can drive this business
No mention of 'final offer' from Alchemy.
Also interesting they state "Alchemy understands that Countrywide's shareholders are divided between those with a firmly held desire to remain a shareholder and are opposed to a sale, and those who wish to accept an opportunity to realise their holdings."
but don't say what camp each of the major shareholders they list falls into. So it's far from certain that the 45% will stay at 45% even if a small increase is offered from Connells.
Don't think this is over unless Connells drops out.
Interested to hear posters thoughts at what level do they think Connells need to come in with to win the races?
I would guess 360p?
Well I am sure that support will waiver should Connells land a knockout punch on Monday .Very noticeable that Robin Paterson with his 10%+ is conspicuous by his absence and of course the small shareholder where no doubt like many others are looking forward to see what punch they are going to deliver
We are inches away from the year end yet we are being denied all the up to date information about current performance .the individuals lined up in the Alchemy managment team which is vital for shareholders to make an informed decision .
Overwhelming feeling that any good news is being buried to railroad the Alchemy deal through
The main arguments put forward against Connells are weak
"Alchemy has lined up an outstanding new management team led by Chairman Carl Leaver"
Who are they?
Connells have an exemplar team with proven track record of delivering profits .year in year out
"... is likely to involve wholesale rationalisation of the Company's business involving multiple branch closures and job losses"
Same rules apply with Alchemy
".. carries significant risk of a review by the Competition and Markets Authority, which may prevent or significantly delay implementation."
Easily solvable by selling on some of the brands and maybe Hamptons is being gifted to Robin Paterson onside so he can add his magic and turn them around again
Personally I would like to see CWD remain intact with some decent leadership and certainly would support a rights issue of £20m at circa 200p a share .Difficult to envisage a situation where FY20 results wouldn't allow them to sort out a medium term finance package with lenders
However Connells are unlikley to let this golden opportunity pass them by and every chance they could table a bid of 325p+which might concentrate shareholder's minds
Can’t see Connells winning the race now
Alchemy have secured 45% of the votes already
Connells would need 75% so they would face an uphill struggle to convert the alchemy support across to them at the 11th hour.
Interesting run in on Monday 7th, my prediction is that Connells will make a counter offer but get turned down. Alchemy to get across the line and this is all formalised before end of Year.
Connells which has is one of countrywides biggest competitors has been allowed to look under the bonnet of the uk’s largest property company. A worth while exercise even if your 250p bid is rejected. Connells damn well knew that bid would not be accepted, so if there is no improved bid on the 7th that’s all it was. To countrywides advantage two horses are better than one. I fancy the countrywide majority shareholders all believe that keeping the company trading on its own is still where the money is, minus Lambert smith Hampton to bring In some liquid cash. The cw branch network has already been trimmed (a few more needed) but they then genuinely have a very profitable branch sales and letting business run by some of the best old school regional directors in the business. Add to that a strong surveying arm, a perfectly good conveyancing service and one of the biggest mortgage brokers, and well things aren’t so bad. Pay down the debt and have a few years of profit consolidation without bringing in clueless CEO’s like platt, and this business can be great again. The signs are there with how this business is performing, hence the interest from other parties.
Long live countrywide
We are a few weeks away from the end of year yet the BODS in their wisdom have failed to update us of the latest debt position or current performance yet they expect us to make a major decision without that knowledge
Why are they treating shareholders like mushrooms
So Robin Paterson standing firm . Come on Connells let's see the colour of your money
Raleigh
Who knows how this will turn out but Connells will either walk away or give it their best shot on Monday .There has to be a "magic number" acceptable to both Paterson and Hoskings to throw their lot in with Connells
I suspect that might be around 350p unless of course they see a considerable upside in the near term
Is it in a number? Or raising cash to pay down some debt and refinancing, as per your original thoughts?
Exciting Times
Connells will be burning the midnight oil with Monday the deadline for an improved offer .No doubt reaching out to Hoskings and Paterson in an effort to get them onside or will they just throw in the towel ?
I wonder what the magic number is ?
This is Alistair Osbornes of the Times take on developments at CWD.
Alchemist Phil
"Another rewiring job at the Countrywide house. And at least the ex-bookie Philip Bow**** has made a better job of it than former boss Peter Long. He’s rejected the 250p-a-share cash bid from rival estate agent Connells and got a second proposal from buyout firm Alchemy.
True, rewiring the Mars space probe would be less complex. It now involves £70 million of Alchemy underwriting and share transactions at three different prices: none of them the present 241p share price. There’s a tender offer at a Connells-matching 250p, a firm placing to Alchemy at 225p and an open offer at 100p.
Already kingmaker investor Hosking Partners has spotted that the sequence of these transactions skews the maths and deliverability. It all falls over too if Alchemy fails to take control or if the debt holders kick off. A higher Connells cash bid would be easier. But at least it’s no Bow****-up. “
Suspect Connells will be courting Hoskings and Paterson to get them onside to support their bid .Perhaps offering them Hamptons at a good price .
Otherwise its going to take an extremely attractive offer for the whole .I would guess 340p might be the sort of level they will need to comeback at
The only way Alchemy are going to win here is to get Paterson and Hoskings onside otherwise they are wasting their time .Perhaps they are offering them Hamptons as a sweetner
Connells need to get in a knockout punch here to claim the prize .It's going to have to be well north of 300p to stand a chance
The existing board directors have been a total disaster for CWD thank goodness Long has finally gone, CWD need Estate Agents to run this mammoth company, too many CWD branded branches in some towns reduce the number to one CWD branch in a town and reduce the number of outlets perhaps with the right direction they may just may come good