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Not knowing much about Tin (I learned a lot about oil drilling/wells and how to value), the latest exploration/test results still look excellent.
With current Tin futures priced at March of £25,000 per tone, and the latest figures from the RNS at near 100, 000 ton contains, Cornish Metals is looking a great investment.
Of course the Tin still has to be extracted and until then investors are always wary, but it can't be long till mining starts, and then I can see the sp flying.
Saw that matey. Reposted the public domain info. Can't see how that bit is controversial...
Cheers LB
Our comments have gone over at TUN.
Cornish Metals, is a company that others could learn from, in the way that they keep their shareholders informed.
Everything, still looking very promising.
Magicallena
A cracking post. Thanks. CUSN starts at around 44 minutes. The interviewer was well prepared, punchy and one of the best .
However, one point which I felt was left unclear was whether CUSN has all the permits it needs to get into production. I understand that it has.
Another point which RW brought out at the end was to correct an erroneous perception that South Crofty is linked to many other mines hydrologically. However, RW expects pumping to continue at a rate of 6,500 cubic metres a day once the mine is dewatered and will then need only one of the three pumping streams currently being used to dewater the mine. (De-watering is currently removing and treating up to 25,000 cu m a day)
It sounds as if exploration news may be coming through in April onwards. And it sounds as if CUSN has several parties interested in providing debt finance. Most encouraging.
Thanks LB. It was great to scroll through the earlier info too. One link takes a drone camera flight to the water treatment plant
Thanks for that LB, looks like sleeves are getting rolled up !
Hi all. Happy new year. Noticed this little cusn related snippet...
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7148309426725167104?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_feedUpdate%3A%28V2%2Curn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7148309426725167104%29
ATB LB
Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/investing/stocks-shares/investors-look-ahead-2024-optimism-gains-miner-glencore/
"For example, in the first half of the year it spent $1.3bn on acquisitions across “transition” metals such as copper and nickel. It also announced a $1.2bn share buyback programme and a special dividend of $0.08 per share. "
New updated stock analysis on cornish: Metals https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCSLLrTRxAg
Interesting article in FT today on critical minerals in U.K., with mention of tin, lithium & Cornish Lithium. CUSN has positions in all of these but surprisingly doesn’t get a mention. IMHO, When it publishes feasibility study it will hit the headlines
Financial Times,
UK left vulnerable by government inaction on critical minerals, MPs warn
--
Harry Dempsey in London
--
Read the full article at:
https://on.ft.com/3RrcdNP
Valuation-it-is, thank you for your reply. Looks very interesting. Are we waiting on news of how things are progressing at the moment? Looking like a good entry price at the moment.
Hi Gingy
Cornish Metals exposure to Cornish Lithium
The Cornish Metals Pre IPO presentation states:-
----------------------------------------------------------
Lithium exposure through Cornish Lithium
Cornish Lithium has the right to explore Cornish Metals’ mineral right areas for lithium-in-brine & geothermal energy. Cornish Metals has a 25% free carried interest on the first project advanced to completion of a Bankable Feasibility Study within its mineral right areas, and a 10% free carried interest on all subsequent projects advanced to completion of a Bankable Feasibility Study.
Cornish Metals will receive a 2% Gross Revenue Royalty on all metals produced from brines or geothermal energy produced from within its mineral right areas.
From January 2017, Cornish Metals benefits from annual cash / share issuances from Cornish Lithium of US$50K per year in years 1-5, US$100K per year in years 5 –10, US$500K per year from year 10, and US$1,000K per year from year 15.
Refer to Company news release dated January 19, 2017 for further info.
Hope that helps. Unfortunately CUSN has taken its annual cash payments so far in the form of Cornish Lithium shares.
Those have recently been diluted by a deal CL did exclusively with Techmet, EMG and UKIB. Others and existing shareholders were offered a far inferior deal. It will be interesting to see if CUSN accepts shares again or now goes for cash for future annual payments.
Looking to invest? Can someone tell me, are we involved in Cornish Lithium and what's its story so far? Sorry for my ignorance. Thankyou in advance.
SP Angel has re-iterated its 48p per share valuation and concluded:-
"Cornish Metals is gaining momentum with dewatering the flooded historic workings now well underway and feasibility studies progressing towards a decision point on a resumption of production. Drilling of the recently discovered mineralisation south of the mine is continuing with potential to add mineral resources, increase production, and extend the mine-life of a rejuvenated South Crofty."
Good luck to all invested here.
With the good rises elsewhere today, I have decided to take some profits on my dividend paying stocks and crystalise my loss here in order to minimise the impact of Capital Gains for the tax year.
I will certainly be buying back in here, and feel that there will be plenty of time to do so before any decent SP moves.
Nothing to do with what the company is doing as I am more than happy with progress and comms (as posted last week), this is purely a strategic decision on my part.
gla
Rogue_rader
RR Assuming you mean a bid from VBR to buy the shares they do not own...........
Apart from its shareholding, VBR also owns a large number of warrants (138,888,889) which are exercisable at 27 pence. If VBR exercised its warrants its resultant holding would be around 40-42 %.
If every holder of warrants exercised, the VBR shareholding would become around 36% of the fully diluted total.
"20p payback" ==> i.e. to make a bid at 30p, VBR would expect that all warrants it doesn't hold would be exercised as the warrant exercise price would be below the bid price. So the cost to VBR would be around £150m.
However, VBR would then benefit from CUSN having just received £21m cash from the other warrant holders, so the net cost could be argued to be £129m.
To this VBR would have to allow for the cost of building and equipping the process plant which might be around £100m.
So all in at 30p, VBR would be looking at around £220m to own the whole thing and be up and ready for mining/processing.
My view is that we could find CUSN is worth many times that figure, (£bns) if further exploration proves the wide formation (WF) is a district scale reserve of similar quality to the GFL. Then as you say, there is considerable potential in the other mineral rights around Cornwall, the potential for profit from processing ore from WF etc and ore from other exploration companies such as Cornish Tin and Godolphin, plus the value in the arrangements with Cornish Lithium.
CUSN might become the hub of all Cornish mining and a major mining company.
As they have board representation VBR will have a very well informed idea about the value in all these parts.
If a bid was in prospect, I would think it would be appropriate to make sure all shareholders had received the same information to evaluate the business as had been received by VBR.
One thing is for sure, there will be a lot of interest in the drilling results and the tin price over the next 24 months.
A question for those more experienced in commodities investing than I...
Cornish Metals seem to be on a winner here. Looking at it as a lay person...
1. Existing mine infrastructure largely in place
2. Large tin reserves proven, with yet more inferred
3. Huge local support for the project
4. Easy access to much of the tin within the mine
5. Other useful metals present within the mines and general geology
6. Tin is on several critical minerals lists around the world
7. SC is a world class tin resource
8. Management of CUSN appears to be excellent
9. Various conflicts around the world and general geopolitical unease means having a stable supply domestically is even more valuable
10. The world NEEDS tin
11. CUSN is well-capitalised, well-run and has minimal debt
12. There's very little in the way of environmental impact of the project
13. It provides economic stimulus to an area of the country in desperate need of it
14. Tin price is sufficiently high to ensure good ROI for investors
15. The water treatment plant is improving the health of the red river
16. There's possibility of heating homes from the geothermal energy
So with those in place, other than an (unlikely) collapse in tin prices, what would get in the way of raising investment capital? Surely this is an open goal of an investment - especially at current stock price?
Just wanting to make sure I look at this from all angles and not just my rose-tinted glasses having grown up near the area!
V-I-I
Thanks for the detailed dewatering analysis.
Thanks- excellent feedback! RE VBR does this mean that the most lijely positive outcome is a company buyout? This would mean a good payback (assuming lets say 20p for arguments sake) but missing out on the next steps of the journey.
Rogue_rader
Thank you for a very interesting and worthwhile overview of CUSN. Yours is the best post I have seen on any company since I started using this website. It must have taken you several weeks to research all the facts and figures you brought out. The points about the history of the mine and being at peak tonnage output when it closed, I have not seen before, are well found and support the view that there is a huge amount of tin still to come out of the mine.
Like you, I am not seeing the investment in Cornish Lithium shares as a major plus, especially after the recent dilutive fund raise bringing in the UKIB, EMG and Techmet, on very favourable terms (terms which were not made available to existing shareholders -CUSN being one), but the royalties may be worthwhile if Cornish Lithium gets into production.
One point on your narrative is that the end of de-watering is estimated to be 18 months after the start so that would be end April 2025 not April 2024 as stated verbally. The completion of the feasibility study probably comes after that, as I think the FS may need info from drilling within the mine after de-watering is completed. Once the FS is completed the company can then make a decision re production and if positive, proceed to raising finance for the process plant. Hopefully by then, raising finance will be easier and the tin price may have made more upwards progress.
It should be remembered that the points you made about management remuneration are stated in Canadian $ not US$ or £, so although the figures look large in Ca $, in £ they are reasonable for such well qualified and experienced people. £1 = Ca $1.705. As you point out the news for a long period has been positive and that does not happen if monkeys are employed being paid peanuts. One does not have to look far to see the devastating results of a monkey-led experience.
Otherwise it might be worth considering that the NPV figures you mention from the 2017 PEA, will benefit from a higher tin price, but also the introduction of Tomra ore sorters at the beginning of processing and possibly higher throughput as a result of higher indicated and inferred figures, offset to some extent by increases in the cost of plant. The sensitivity analysis -summarised on p22 of the PEA -suggests that a 10% move in the tin price adds about US $57.6m to the NPV. Indeed the tin price now is about 10% higher than the base case scenario in the PEA.
Re your point about VBR taking a stake; if VBR (who have board representation) wish to increase their holding above 30% they will have to make a bid. VBR did raise US$ 650m earlier this year. For Sir Mick Davis and his team to have taken the stake they have, huge due diligence must have taken place, all of which must give other investors great confidence in the outlook even at a share price of 18p - the price VBR paid.
Hopefully we are at a good point on the Lassonde curve for your interest to have been aroused. I look forward to you
A new analysis of Cornish Metals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vv9PrA_bRFY