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Funny price action!
They keep buying & the SP keeps falling
Board have been buying recently and SP keeps dropping ....notice a few large ish trade, something must be brewing for the future then ......dividends are paid in acc ....ATB
Most analysts forecasts are hopelessly optimistic - especially if the. recommendation. comes from the. house. broker! But - look at the recent. directors· purchases they means more. the. Berenberg·s opinion
Are Berenberg's opinions worth anything? see DLG
This analyst comment below backs up my thoughts that 125p is an absolute steal - the usual industry multiple would be 50% higher than this, equating to a price of around 180p. Perhaps we may yet get further action here DBAY are an "investment value advisor" - I daresay if someone else came in with a decently higher offer they wouldn't be averse to taking the money and running: "1001 GMT Shares in Creston jump 31% to 123p after the advertising and public relations company agreed to be bought by funds controlled by its shareholder, the investment management company DBAY Advisors for 125p a share. The price, which values the company at GBP75.8 million, equates to an enterprise value of around 5.5 times Ebitda, which is well short of the "reasonable industry multiple" of 8 times Ebitda, says N+1 Singer analyst Jonathan Barrett. Has a buy rating and 135p target price."
Hmmm....glad to be out with a decent profit, but 125p really is a steal. DBAY have around 35% acceptances, so it'll be difficult to overturn for any competing bidders. Today's H1 results are actually pretty good. With 5.8p EPS in H1, and improved trading in H2 for Health, CRE were on the way to a decent result for the year. DBAY are picking CRE up on what is now not far off a historic P/E of only 10 or 11 - and CRE now have a £1.6m and rising cash pile too. Not paying much of a bid premium there! Plus CRE have a top-notch - and global - list of blue chip clients who've on average stayed with CRE for 10 years or more. Let's see if Artemis and the other recent institutional buyers are happy to exit at this price or put up a fight.
You're now rewarded
CRE's TMW wins Ferrero Rocher account - pass the chocolates Ambassador! Http://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/wins-week-western-union-estee-lauder-moneycouk/1410734# "Ferrero, the Italian chocolate company, has awarded TMW Unlimited a place on its digital and social roster following a competitive pitch handled by Roth Observatory. TMW Unlimited will work across three brands from the Ferrero portfolio: Kinder Bueno, Tic Tac and Raffaello."
Some what annoying, price has been marked down today to create some selling/ buying volume. Perhaps one day we may see a reversal of fortune here but in the meantime this is a very frustrating investment.
Interesting that while Artemis has been accumulating that the share price has been held at 103 - 107, Bid/Ask. Very dissapointing to see no movement in the share price for a number of weeks, hopefully our patience will eventually be rewarded.
RNS out - Artemis have bought another 240,000 shares since their last holding RNS. They now own over 16% at 9.42m shares: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/creston-plc--cre-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201609221247205875K/ Artemis, DBay, Fidelity and Argo have all been buying and now own 53% between them...
Yes good news, another partnership that actually merits a press release. The problem at the moment is that new business is not increasing pfbt due to a slowing spend by Creston's established clientele. Creston's management have unfortunately not found a way to increase shareholder value, albeit a much stated objective.
New partnership with media planning and buying agency Goodstuff to come together on new business opportunities: Http://www.creston.com/uploads/1473930456_Press_Release_-_Goodstuff_Unlimited_Group_final.pdf Goodstuff have some terrific clients - Disney, ESPN, Celebrity Cruises, Hiscox, House of Fraser etc etc - bodes well for CRE: Http://goodstuff.co.uk/
As private investors we do not have the same access to company research enjoyed by that of institutional investors so have to rely upon publicly available information as well as our own analysis of company accounts. In Creston's case we have Liberum, paid house broker with a target of 170p, somewhat fanciful in my opinion. Edison research using a DCF valuation of 114p - 130p, again this is paid for research commissioned by Creston and finally Peel Hunt with an add target of 115p. With such a disparity of valuations my own opinion is that the market is unlikely to Value Creston at more than 10 times earnings i.e circa 120p
Good to see a couple of small buys causing a 1p tick up today. Perhaps stock is scarce at present. Given that DBay, Artemis and Argos have all been buying and now own 47% of CRE between them, stock scarcity is hardly surprising :o))
Share price up this morning on one trade and interestingly the spread has narrowed. Not sure if Market Makers are trying to stimulate some two way business here or whether there has been some mention in the financial press this morning.
Liberum today reiterate their Buy and 170p target: Http://www.fiscalstandard.com/2016/09/06/analysts-at-liberum-capital-reiterated-creston-plc-loncre-as-buy/ Edison's 130p would be fine, but 170p is much more like it. Lesville, DBAY, Artemis and Argonaut now hold almost 50% between them. They're not just in it for the dividend. A little more patience will be well worthwhile at some point imho.
How many times have Edison described Creston's valuation as undervalued, yet today the share price has hardly moved with very little volume. I am not sure what it will take to get the share price moving upwards so for now it seems the only reason for holding is the dividend.
They keep forecasts unchanged at 12.1p EPS with a 4.6p dividend. They also forecast a �4.2m cash pile at the end of this period. Hopefully CRE will be on the acquisition trail soon.... Http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/creston18/preview/ "Valuation: Continued discount When compared with agency peers, Creston�s shares are trading on a discount of more than 30% on an annualised 2016 EV/EBITDA basis at 5.1x. A DCF under varying conservative assumptions on WACC and terminal growth rates also indicates a share price in a range of 114p to 130p. With a (comfortably covered) dividend, the yield is well in excess of market and sector levels. DBAY Advisors, which is represented on the board, holds 28.0% of the equity, with Artemis holding a further 15.6%."
Today's AGM statement includes the crucial statement: "Group Headline PBT is well ahead of the comparative period reflecting the benefit from the ongoing implementation of operational efficiencies commenced in the prior year and some benefit from the weakening in UK sterling" Looks like EPS may be nicely ahead of the forecast consensus 11.9p EPS (and 4.65p dividend) if this continues, as H1 PBT is "well ahead" of last year's 4.98p H1 EPS. Hopefully EU uncertainty will clear as per recent surveys and accelerate the marginal growth in revenues: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/creston-plc--cre-/rns/agm-statement/201609060700080063J/
Rivaldo, noticed your second post today on ADVFN re the investing philosophy of the Argonaut Fund management. Seems strangely familiar to that of DBAY Advisors who have to date, despite having a non exec represented on the board of Creston failed to benefit from their investment other than collect dividends. Let's hope that the their combined enthusiasm for Creston eventually rewards us private shareholders. I can't help but wonder why I did not sell all my shares at last years high of 160p.
Question is, who has sold them. Obviously differing views as to the future direction of Creston's share price. It would be nice to get some indication of current trading post Brexit, perhaps a trading statement to accompany the forth coming AGM.
Nice - RNS out showing a new major shareholder. The Argonaut Fund has 1.926m shares and has increased to 3.19%: Http://www.investegate.co.uk/creston-plc--cre-/rns/holding-s--in-company/201608311034035454I/
following a 250,000 buy at 102p today and various other buys including a further 50,000 at 102p.