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Hi Dan,. TBVH, we drilled to a specific depth based on data mapping for a reason. The reason being was to take advantage of latest perforation & extraction techniques that were not available when Petrofina were on site, not to mention the advanced data mapping technologies, oh so many years ago. The conversation between BoD and Sonangol obviously was to take advantage of the entire column.
To me it seems that Sonangol may have gone too 'gung ho' into the perforation of the previously never encountered sections lower down, but the plan was always to perforate IMO, they just didn't expect the increased water influx. So I believe when they return to TO14, they'll have to plug/seal the lower section and clean out any remaining fluids and perforate the top sections.
Good evening Ed,
Thank you for your valued opinion. If you read between the lines it certainly appears that corcel/extraction are confident of a significant sp rise. In my opinion to show that level of confidence suggests they know what's gone wrong with to14 and either how to overcome it or how to avoid it happening with to13. You wouldn't offer to purchase shares at a significant premium if you were at the mercy of the geology. I believe it was bladey who came up with the theory which certainly holds some weight.
To think that one of the biggest O&G players in the world have messed up on what should be a straight forward drill is quite surprising but these things happen.
I don't know why LSE mess around the punctuation!
good evening,
thank you for your valued opinion. if you read between the lines it certainly appears that corcel/extraction are confident of a significant sp rise. in my opinion to show that level of confidence suggests they know what's gone wrong with to14 and either how to overcome it or how to avoid it happening with to13. you wouldn't offer to purchase shares at a significant premium if you were at the mercy of the geology. i believe it was bladey who came up with the theory which certainly holds some weight.
to think that one of the biggest o&g players in the world have ****ed up on what should be a straight forward drill is quite surprising but these things happen.
Is there a connection between the Put Option and the TR1 seller today??? Put Option announced that brings volume followed by a TR1 from a seller with a spread betting account. Could this mean the spread betting account holder sold into the volume created by the Put Option RNS?
Good morning Dan,
Well we only have limited information to work on. So we don't know if they took open hole samples before casing, we also don't know if they did sidewall coring before casing and testing. So is it possible that they have hit a water filled compartment in the deeper part of the well, perhaps. Water zones in a well, once identified, can be isolated and plugged. So yes what folks are describing does happen, we currently don't know how much of the 80m has been perforated to date. Wells are tested from the bottom up as its fairly straight forward to isolate and plug off lower sections while continuing to test upper sections. Clearly TO-14 is unfinished business otherwise they would have just plugged it now rather than return there after TO-13. Nitrogen is used in clean up operations, so it will be interesting to see what further updates come from both wells. The fact that Sonangol want to return to TO-14 after TO-13 is certainly positive.
The company does remain optimistic and positive given recent statements
15th April
"our ongoing optimism regarding the reactivation of the historic Tobias field in Angola."
28th March
"we remain positive, knowing we have encountered oil in the well and don't yet know its ultimate commercial prospectivity."
Its still a case of wait and see, we still don't know why Petrofina only produced from the top 8 metres of TO-4. There will be lots more news to come and hopefully we won't have to wait as long to get the flow test results from TO-13.
Regards,
Ed.
Sorry meant perforating!... not drilling!
@Dan, yes! perforated an unknown/unproven section, got inundated with water infiltration which hampered further perforation in the upper area of the column. Lack of details in the RNS to me suggests this as I've never seen such an detail'less RNS after a attempted flow test... They defo buggered something up in TO14 works.
Like I said, will attempt TO13 without repeating same mistakes in TO14 and perforate historic sections and prove up flow rates. I believe plug and sealing sections can only work going from bottom to top and hence what they were attempting with TO14, unless I'm wrong and someone will correct me on that!
Will come back to TO14, plug and seal water infiltration section and then re-test upper oil sections, IMO... after TO13 successfully starts flowing oil!
Would this explain the reservoir re-activation issues?
Thanks Ed.
Not sure about Ed, but my belief is they screwed up TO14 by starting the drilling too low down in the column which probably intersected a serious water section. They should've started at the top section from historic production data. I reckon this is why the testing took too long trying to control the water situation!
I reckon they'll start at the top section for TO13 to avoid repeating the water issue from TO14. Which means the testing should be faster, (he says.. lol)
Hi Ed,
There has been some suggestion that Sononagol may have screwed up on TO-14. I'm assuming this theory is referring to the testing process. In your opinion is there anything that could have happened in error that has led to this predicament. From my limited knowledge I would have thought that any mistakes would have been made during the drill rather than testing.
Thanks
Sienna,
There was significant volumes shifted yesterday after the announcement came out, even today volume is still higher than normal so there is stock available or we would be back trading much higher again. Volume could potentially remain high as the test gear is to be at TO-13 next week. Hopefully results will come much quicker from that one than TO-14, even though its got a much longer oil column.
Regards,
Ed.
I'm not sure about the seller SJ but I would bet that Richard Jennings will have a limit price on his buys, likely to be 0.35. This means the MM have to work harder to fill them and the sp wouldn't rise as much as it would with buys going through without a limit order.
There is talk on Telegram of a possible big seller again!!! But i dont get that because surely the recent rns s about placing at 0.5p and 1 director getting involved and a deal with Align/ Jennings at 0.76p i think should deter shareholders from selling. Its all very wierd. Perhaps Ed could shed some light on possible " behind the scenes deals" if he feels comfortable with that?
All true Dan yet the price keeps falling. Partly because so many small cap stocks keep delisting. Punters are fed up with being wiped up. There is no chance of this moving much higher at this time. It is very risky and has disappointing news to say the least. Those who piled in all the way down are losing fortunes. Yes the directors have bought more but that might be desperate. Show me the lows and I will take a punt. I don’t think we are there yet
Morning All,
There is one thing for certain, had this series of events occurred with any other AIM company we would have seen a heavily diluted placing to cover the cost of overruns. I'll ask the detractors on this board again, name me 10 other companies out of the 700 listed that have raised money at a 37% premium in the last 12 months. The name another 5 that have a similar agreement to the PUT. No pressure.
Good post Ed,
Fingers crossed the buys at this level will prove to be excellent value going forward.
We are very very lucky to have financial backers in the company that have such strong belief in the assets.
Hopefully the coming months will be much better for us.
Thanks Nige
Good morning Nige,
Everything that CRCL do in terms of funding seems to be at a premium to the share price, not unexpectedly either given the tiny market cap and significant asset potential here. Cap is circa £7m and both TO-14 and TO-13 are unfinished business at the moment. Sale of the Ni assets covers most of the cap now too. With them debt free they are unencumbered when it comes to acquiring production/reserves too. So a long way to go yet and likely a good reason for that put option at 0.75p and like you say the placing at 0.5p also being at a premium too.
Yeah yesterday was a nice change to Monday's weather, I spend most of it outside, so wasn't around when all the action was happening on CRCL yesterday.
I'd imagine so Nige, TO-13 to get fully tested first then back to test TO-14 again. Be interesting to see what TO-13 does on the flank as company statements are still bullish on the Tobias development.
Regards,
Ed.
Morning Ed,
Stormy weather here on Monday, the news reported it as a mini tornado, let’s hope the sp whips up just as quick lol.
Interesting twist with this Put thingy, I don’t really understand it if I am honest but it has certainly given confidence to investors.
It looks like there is a lot underpinning the sp now, the 0.50 placing and now the Put.
Hopefully over the coming weeks we will turn the corner and the sp can start to climb again?
Thanks Nige
Smkr,
Yeah great to see that Put option in place at 142% premium to the closing price. Shows how keen EXT are to get those 99m shares from Mr Jennings. If completely flies in the face of the gloom and doom mongers we've had on here recently. Obviously the largest shareholder is still very keen on upping their shareholdings at the expense of Mr Jennings after the recent market overreaction. Hopefully we'll get some flow rates from TO-13 in the coming weeks.
Regards,
Ed.
Off he goes again ! 🤣😂, ART123, have a day off pal. You look silly.
I reiterate that the trouble I have with this company all appears to stem from the slow and tedious performance of the operator on the Angola licence, Sonangol.
Obviously, my 2-week timescale to drill a 1000-metre well does not include rig set-up and dismantle times, which should add at the most a week to both ends, giving roughly a 4-week timescale from start to finish. Sonangol have clearly taken twice as long - ie. 2 months - to drill both wells and that is not good enough.
I can come up with numerous working examples of how long it takes to drill an oil (or gas) well and they will all point to roughly the same timescale but to save me the effort 2 suitable examples have appeared in today's RNS's for other companies so I will use them to make my point.
Firstly, Union Jack Oil have recently drilled a well in Oklahoma, USA which spud on 28th March. The pre-drill target timescale was:
Approximate ten-day drilling period to a depth of 5,200 feet - which is about 1,575 metres
Completion time is estimated at approximately a further eight days including perforating and flow-back, if successful.
As announced on 8th April the drill reached 4,600 feet - 1390 metres - after 11 days of drilling.
Secondly, Zephyr Energy are preparing to spud a well in Utah, USA with a planned depth of roughly 10,000 feet - 3000 metres - with a planned drill time of 30 days.
I could come up with numerous other examples. It does not take 2 months to drill a well to 1000 metres. Progress has been pathetic at best, made even worse by the fact that after all this time they cannot even get the bloody well to flow oil. Sonangol are total time-wasters.
Yeah it’s a put option. usually associated with being short I suppose in its true form .. so he can sell high, and if he fancies, can take them back cheaper I guess. If he fancies buying that is.
I think we now know the “something is going on” I mentioned last week lol.
RJ has the Option to sell - not EXT the Option to buy.
"And they have replaced it with an equally silly and unrealistic Put Option"
Please explain why you think this is unrealistic - its quite simple, Extraction have the option Aligns' stock for 0.75., at any time. What's unrealistic?
It does appear silly at first glance but perhaps there are charges and restrictions not discussed in the RNS?
If not, is it just plain bullishness which also prevents Jennings from selling at these levels and knocking the price?
What other reason is there?
(Maybe we should all try and get similar terms from Ext - lol.)