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Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
The P/E ratio is indeed a point for discussion. This was only a prediction for this year and I see them as an innovative R&D firm which just started to do manufacturing. Therefore the factor 15 (this might be too conservative). This is for me underwritten due to the high margins they make on their products. This market is still far away from consolidation.
On the longer term, this P/E factor will naturally drop but then the sales will also be factors higher. Like said it doubled in one year and to my opinion this is only the beginning of the hockeystick.
Happy to learn other insights !
https://cap-xx-store.com/collections/prismatic-supercapacitors
https://uk.rs-online.com/web/p/electric-double-layer-capacitors/7116985/
CAP-XX Supercaps
I’ve always found Stockopedia estimates spot on for my shares over the years. Stockopedia costs £25 a month to join or £275 a year. I do it monthly.
Stockopedia have got their estimates for CAP-XX spot on. These estimates don't include the Murata lines because they're not up and running yet. CAP-XX 2020 Year End runs from 1 July 2020 to 30 June 2021. And, 2021 Year End runs from 1 July 2021 to 30 June 2022.
Stockopedia estimates for CAP-XX were as follows:-
Year End 30 June 2020E 2021E
Revenue A$9m A$13.6m
Net Profit A$0.1m A$2.4m
EPS Normalised A$0.000 A$0.800
PE Ratio N/A 5.36
Making money on shares is hard work and if you don't research everything like it's your own business then you'll lose money.
We are all here because we know the supercap market is a future global growth market. We know supercaps should be used with all batteries to double their life. This will happen as more and more people raise these issues to help our planet and save on waste. Join them by making sure your voice is heard too. Educate everyone to make sure they know supercaps double battery life, help the planet and save on waste. Put this on your facebook, twitter,linkedin, etc., etc. Get the message out there. Educate everyone.
Nice post PC01.......Considering a lot of other things he said around that time,(I remember a figure of some 24M Aussie Dollars being mentioned), I'm surprised that a lot of us are still here.
Eternal optimists I guess and thanks for your workings TD too....all food for thought.
Sorry - didn't add the optimistic bit...that if we can get some momentum going then a PE of 30-40x makes this worth proper money....thus the optionality which I like....might be safe and boring but might be very interesting...you pays your money....
The great dilemna on your numbers TD is the PE...if CPX is an R&D firm with great new products then like most techie firms it'll trade on a PE of 40-60x or even higher if it has the next must-have...if however it is manufacturing co with visible earnings and not much growth, then that PE will be more like 5-7x...what I hope is that CPX uses its income from production to be able to stand on its feet and not continuously tap its poor shareholders up for more cash every 18 mths as its burns more than it makes. So, I think safe buying it 2-3p area, from where I doubt it will move far in either direction until clarity over the Murata project...and then execution of said project and being able not to lose any customers / orders.
But my greatest concern remains - and often said - that Kongats, charming man that he is, has no idea how to monetise (aka sell) what he is making...and don't repeat 'order book 2x'...he said that to me face to face about 18 months ago!
All responds and insights are of course highly appreciated.
Revenue for the year ending 30 June 2020 is expected A$3.7m and a loss of 2mln.
Covid has impacted revenue
Order book is twice of last year
Murata line will be started
My projection for coming year:
Without covid: 4 mln
Double orders: 8 mln
Murata: educated guess is 4mln x 0.75= 3 mln (Still under starup)
Total revenue of 11 mln compared to 3.7mln and a loss of 2mln
This should result in a profit of roughly 4-5 mln in gbp 2-2.5 mln
With 400mln outstanding shares and p/e of 15, I end op with a shareprice of 10p.
This is based on current knowledge and in since the order book doubled in one year, what will happen in the upcoming year ?
Like several already mentioned here, put it on the shelf for at least 3 years.