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Bert... You still don't listen. This company should make pre tax profits.. Its the mess that's been left before which is the reason they will most probably be down for H1.. You know the stuff you're not interested in.
Not once have I moaned on here about my average. If anything I use it as an example to other to not worry about being 5, 10, 20% down.
Bert... Do you actually have shares in capita? I could easily tell everyone this is great and shares will be £2 by Christmas. Just like you I could tell everyone it's going to make 200 million for H1 without carrying out ANY RESEARCH.. But that's not what forums are for. Im positive about capita. Im very confident this company will see growth in 2021. I don't lose any sleep on this.
But we won't see any gains until the market picks up or a vaccine.
Worrying because it's down 10% in the last 30 days while 90% of the ftse is down over the last month... I think its you that's losing sleep
Im not too interested in that kind of past stuff. I guess you been in it a while and have been burnt being so far down. Totally understandable but you got to take it for what it is now. No point regretting your average.
I dont think the management of the company is too great tbh, they probably wont last too long anyway. Im trying to look at the underlying performances to evaluate if this is actually a recovery stock and how strong.
It looks tardy and needs to shed people and make cuts. But thats my view. You think its going to make a loss H1. I think its going to make a profit, Im only guessing as to how much.
If it doesnt make profit as you say, then if I was you I would give up and forget about it for a while. You are so far down right now its not worth losing anymore sleep over.
Lets wait until tomorrow, results should be out by then. Best of luck
I use simply wall street a lot. I think compared to other advisors they're very realistic.. Especially with SP.
Bertles, I agree with what you're saying. In hindsight you're right it should be hitting growth and paying dividends. But as I keep saying this company was left in a very bad way from the last CEO. Pointless acquisition that ran up big debt. Trying to monopolise the market and becoming far too big to manage, loss of contracts and a bad reputation became of it. Surely you should know all this? Its going to take 5 years for the turn around to complete. Last year didn't go to plan. Surely if you invest in a company you would have known all this which is why I'm struggling to get my head round why you can't understand it. To read the comment.. I can't understand how it's gone from £13 to 36p... Come on... Do some research mate... That way you will hopefully see what positive changes have happened since 2017.
They have had to streamline the business and sell off a lot of assets, not paid dividends for years, revenue is declining each year.
I personally think the turn around will happen.. I'll hold and hopefully be rewarded... I've not sold so I've not lost anything.
Also Greggs is not in the same space as Capita.
You fully expect retail and trade to have done badly. Not so with Capita who have been relatively immune to this Covid thing. They said its not affected them other than only 5% turnover. Its not much downside really and they should have made associated savings to nett off any turnover downside!!
Yeah its such a weird one this company. 36p looks great on the face of it but the more you look into the company the more you have to scratch the head!!
Lets wait until tomorrow for the results and see what they are ! Best of luck
Forgot to mention Bertles I believe 36p is a damn good price but I would say that as I bought in at 48p in late June and I thought that was a good price. The market is just to unpredictable to make assumptions. Good luck anyway.
It’s the same old scenario Bertles . Greggs was the same, they furloughed their staff but turned in a £65m loss, I wasn’t expecting that. So we will just have to sit tight. I’ve already thought about selling 30% of my holding before we get to the announcement. It’s not the only share I’ve had reservations about. I have 10 companies in my portfolio and 4 of them are announcing their H1 figures and I’m not optimistic at all. It’s times like these when it’s important to hold Your nerve. Easier said than done but still has to be done.
A company of 4bn t/o such as Capita should really be returning anything between £200-500m profits.
If not and they continue to makes losses, there is a serious problem somewhere!!!!
The 36p reflects a ton of things over a period of time. A one off poor performance wouldnt account for a drop from £13 down to 36pence !!!
If they announce a loss in H1 as you suspect, then this is probably headed into 20s!! Its not even worth holding out regaining your £1.01 average for ages !!
Last year pre tax profit was £126 million for H1.. But capita only walked away with £26 million for reported earnings.
So that means they had to pay out £100 million for investment, pension decifit, redundancies, lost of contract cost, debt, interest, training, overheads etc etc.
Capita have lost 10% in revenue... Roughly between £170 and £200 million. Through loss of contracts and covid..
If earnings at the end of H1 was 26 million last year... I think its fair to say that this year its going to be close. Let's hope the cutbacks, furlough, vat defferal wipes out the revenue loss through covid because if it doesn't the pre tax profits could be wiped out pretty easily.
The pre tax profit is most probably going to be down from 2019 because of covid. Some of government contracts stopped paying (read it in H1 expectations) and we are looking at a revenue loss of 60million just in the government department.
That loss alone wipes out the 26 million earnings.
All we can hope is that the streamlining that was made last year has worked. The cut backs made cover the costs of covid... But until then we can only go off the forecast and if you read the reports I think its going to be close.
Here's a question for you. How many companies do you know that has revenue of 4 billion turnover and makes between 400 and 500 million net profit each year is 36p a share.
I cant understand why you are expecting them to make a H1 loss. Theyve already announced at least 45m of savings so far and they have furloughed 10000 staff.
If they turn in a loss as you say. Then this share is highly likely to collapse into the 20s!!!!!
No idea why you are looking at anything Post EBITDA? Why look at that if you want to understand underlying company performance!
Im getting it from the capitas own announcements as well as from published accounts !!!
Does anybody know of an emoji where someone keeps hitting their head against a wall???? .
I'm talking net... Break even for the year which would beat the - 60 million from last financial year.
I really do advise you to actually read the half year reports and full year reports... that way you will understand what this company has to pay off like the pension deficit that I keep going on about and you will see the steps taken to get this company out of the hole it's in.
Don't go off the 2018 reports that was purely propped up from the 700 million rights issue.
So what? If the underlying company is making money, then tax, interest etc is whatever it is.
Why on earth would they not be making profit in H1 this year? They've made a chunk of savings to boot this year so far !!!!
Correct Bertles... But if you actually read the half year report it's pre tax profits (EBITDA)
Last year it made £126m by H1. No reason why it shouldnt be more now. Revenue is not far off and theyve been telling us they have been making huge savings H1. Theres no real basis to be announcing a loss!!!!!!!!
Most worrying thing is this transformation restructure. H1 last year they said they were 2yrs into it and it was all was going swimmingly fine. Only to announce that by year end the transformation had gone wrong, would cost more and take far longer !!!
It sounds something big went tits up in H2 or they lied in H1 commentary and misled investors
Try2buylow... I've had it all week mate.
This narrative of it must be making 150 to 200 million for H1.... Its 36p a share for crying out loud. The process is going to take 5 years and currently in year 3 of the turn around.
One thing I do think capita will do is go all out cost saving for the next 2 years... I think this turn around will happen. My average is 1.01 and I'm confident I'll make 50% on it
Has to be a 'good' recovery play at this current level. They're now so intertwined with Government contracts, they're not going anywhere. Some positive upside as the restructure plays out. Also, when their planned software sale is completed, this will also be another strong catalyst for upward movement.
It will be reported to the big boys on friday and to us little suckers on monday.
I am so far of 5k in the red on my CPI position. But this is not lost until I sell. Now in the next few weeks months something more could happen and I could easily be 10k in the red, but as long as I stick to my guns and don't sell and touch wood CPI does not go bust, I believe in my plan and even if I have to wait 2 years I will hopefully close with a juicy profit and then place it on an other ridiculously nerve racking position.
Yes well that was the idea of the entire restructuring of the business. Capita is massively diversified. They now want to focus on wjhat is most profitable which makes sense. If you read their business plan for the last 4 years all this is clearly explained.
Do not get all these people screaming something is "off" or they must be hiding something. Don't you do a minimum of research before buying shares? At leat of you are not interested in fundamentals check the technicals.
Profit is not the only thing that matters. Just look at Tesla's revenue vs profit for last 5 years. Most big investors, the ones which actually make shares go up, invest in the long term. Now it is a question of believing that Capita will be turned around or not. That the market environement in the future will be favorable to the servicesthat Capita provides. And many other angles.
Staring at your screaning on a 5min time frame, wondering why you are seeing an other red candle after 15 minutes is totally counter productive, will make you make the wrong decision as it will impact your psychology. You need to enter with a plan and stick to it. Sorry for sounding patronising but that last sentence is what I repeat to myself on a daily basis, "eatstocks stop overthinking and second guessing the market, stick to your plan".
Software division up by 2m
People solution down by 30m
Customer management down by 10m
Government division down by 60m
Technology solutions down by 35m
Specialist services down by 40m
Consulting department no expectations reported.
Against cost saving of 45m plus
Around 5% employees furloughed
Sale of eclipsed £56.5m
£120 benefit from Vat deferral scheme.
2019 half year earnings report of net 26m profit
I think this is going to be close. If we can get anywhere close to making profit the price will rocket. Add more cutbacks and cost savings for H2 and we may even be in line for growth. Good luck everyone for Monday. (yahoo finance have reported results will be reported on Monday).
@try2buylow thanks for that. Its astonishing this company cannot make profit regularly.
A £4bn T/o business like this should be making £200-500m profit a year. Looking at past form something is desperately off !!!!!
5 March YE19 presentation said outlook for 2020 had been updated, no Pbt figure given unlike in prior year, expecting then modest organic growth & free cash flow of at least £160m
27 March Covid statement withdrew guidance & said forecast not possible, market would be updated "if appropriate"
25 June AGM H1 market update said revenue down 10%, with 5% due to Covid & no comment on costs , write offs or profit
imagine reading that if your job was to price commitment to CPI for an II, they need a projection to price properly.
In this scenario, it would not be beyond grasp to make a projection because of the inertia in profit generation from an order book of 6.7bn at the start of the year & covid opportunities but it depends on controlling head office, exceptional and systems/significant restructuring write offs.
This one looks bit smelly this morning. Maybe someone knows something we dont !
Still no results!!!