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Hi Know0. I'm not Passmore. I just posted to share some of my thoughts. For the record, I'm long CPI slightly above the current price but I'm comfortable and, if anything, would be looking to add to the position before results anticipating a move into the 40-50p range
Thanks Passmore for posting as your alta ego - "Seaofbebt" We know that you and RentBoy, Clown know this business well
See you all in a few months when you short it again - take your profits now upto 50-60p then no doubt you will short it to 40s next time
"Am expecting some good news on debt, although much of this should be factored in. With net debt (post IFRS 16) starting at £1.08bn on 1st Jan and sale proceeds of £344m from ESS (the £184m from Axelos probably won't have completed by HY), it should be down to a little over £0.7bn or £550m after Axelos completes. The VAT deferral is £119m which will need to be repaid by March of next year, so that should really be added to effective net debt.
Also, with £440m of the £765m of Private Placement Notes maturing in the next 20mths, and CPI stating in their FY20 results "The Group intends to extend the average term to maturity of its debt, and thereby reduce refinancing risk, by issuing new
long-term debt instruments in 2021" I'm hoping that the £440m PP notes will be repaid, the rest will be refinanced/extended and the RCF will be lengthened.
Possibly also more news of disposals as someone already mentioned, particularly as their target for 2021 has virtually been met with ESS & Axelos, and their market update in June said that preparation for further disposals "is also progressing well" so it shouldn't be tough to beat on the upside.
Overall, I think the share price bounce is justified as there's ample room for good news on the 6th, but I'm long already so have an axe to grind like most people posting here!"
My crystal ball tells me that this *might* have bounced on the 19'th (last Monday). Seems to be when RSI was at its low!
Good point Night_Watch. Must admit I'm not the biggest fan of outsourcing from experience (looks attractive but can be a false economy) but suspect you may be right. They may also be attracted by a greater resilience especially if they are currently suffering from key people having to keep isolating. All theory but agree that the sp just looks very cheap at the moment so thinking of adding more.
Been building stake in here since last week. Glad its holding.
Looking back at these levels in 6-24 months from now this will seem cheap.
Got a feeling pandemic is going to force a lot of companies to cost cut through outsourcing.
Well, in fairness to others, if you click on the 'fundamentals' tab (here, above) and look at the entries for 'net interest', 'Total Current Liabilities', 'Total Non-Current Liabilities', 'Net assets' and 'Net Asset Value per Share', the picture does arguably appear pretty bleak. Until, cpi announce that they have paid down debt, one should not assume otherwise.
Cash - of course there is debt and I hope it gets restructured over a 5/7 yr period
Do you not know this business and its finances that you are invested in? Do you understand the IFRS impact on reported debt also?
But the Pick n Mix Bag of 3 have kept saying CPI has large debt but continue to not back up their comments - just like all of their other comments
DYOR and GL all LTH
Know0, until they state that the debt has been paid down or cleared, we should not assume that there is no debt or no significant debt.
Wily - join discord group and I will DM you may calls
Still no response from the clowns though?
Come on guys, you repeatedly post about huge debt.
What is it? (At 30/6/21) IFRs debt and non IFRS debt
Will keep asking to show that your comments have no merit unless you back them up.
Know0, I did not say you said anything about large debt and not really interested in what the doomsayers say. You have said what you think profit might be and I was simply asking what you think the debt might me based on current known facts.
Willy - I am not the one repeatedly saying "huge debt"
I have also repeatedly said on IFRS basis and non IFRS basis
Its clear by the silence that Passwind, Rentboy, ClubClown and WildGuess who constantly de ramp saying CPI has huge debt - cant back up their assertions
The cash mountain needs to be clear also
Yes Deferred VAT will now be paid down, and retained profit (cash element) will reduce debt
Still waiting for the nonsense posters to back up their claims??
Well, we are working on the basis that they've actually achieved their stated objectives. Massive let down if they haven't. Rollercoaster.
I will guess at £650million and hope that is conservative
Yep, add middle-man fees for sourcing buyers too and other expenses/cost/outgoings.
Sorry catholic was a misprint
Catholic, thanks for your input, it would be nice.
If they supposedly drew in £600 million and the debt was £1060 million that would leave £460 million on a simplistic sum. But what about interest payments and vat deferred
repayments?
Without ifrs included liabilities and not knowing what office and utility savings have been had, my guess would be around £300m+. It's just a guess, so don't rely on it. DYOR.
Know0, sorry you must have missed my question earlier and you may have stated it before but what do you think the debt may be?
Rent boy, pass. Club, Watch
Still waiting???
YOUve all commented on this supposedly high debt
What’s your calcs as at 30 June
IFRS debt
Non IFRS debt
Simple enough to put your assumptions from 31/12/20 debt
THE reason you won’t I say because you know you’ve lied consistently to promote your agenda?
Passmore - try answering the W gestion posed (lead post)
As at 30 June 2021. IFRS and exclude IFRS
Simple enough. You keep saying loads of debt but £600M disposal proceeds alone this year already
I admit it, I’ve lost a lot of money standing by CPI but I honestly 100% know that this share will come good, when? hopefully just a matter of time, otherwise I stand to loose everything but I’m willing to take the risk as I know it will..
For all the holders, hold on!! For all the doubters, all I can say is invest, invest and invest and at these prices you will not stand to loose only gain!
The x2 disposals are imminent! FACT! But will it be before 4th Aug I don’t know..
@Know0... in case you haven't realized what the 'market' has realized, a company with an annual £3bn turnover and not much to show for it is classed as 'not-for-profit'. It's effectively an extension of the State or the equivalent of a charity... oh wait, charities have billions invested!
Cash - if you cant give a ball park within 6 mths of published numbers and several trading updates, I am unsure whayt your analysis is!
Passmore, Rentboy, Club etc - come on, you all state debt is so high - show us your calcs to support your statements?
Know0, I doubt anybody could give you an accurate or even ball-park, hence the sp. I think the 'market' doesn't have much faith in what was presented.
Come on guys - you all post about it - now is where you share your calcs - otherwise your words are worthless?