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Real value with be in the market sentiment, positivity and PIs and ii taking positions knowing the
Bopd will be constantly increasing
Costs will be reduced
Ownership could be increased to a minimum of 85%
OPL 266 could land anytime
Company is in a cash positive state
Possible dividends down the lines
As mentioned before 88e hit a MC of over £600m 1st April 2021 with no oil.
We have oil, the ability to increase revenues and prove further reserves at Barron Flats and Cole Creek
Dough the figures your getting are roughly on par with what should be there or there about.
Before everyone jumps screaming the figures are to low. We they aren’t. I do believe that there is some value in OPL226 and cash in the bank to factor in and $9m from Cuda so initial opening SP for me would be 1.4-1.6p
Q1 accounts showed 16 production days at 1200 bopd up to the 31st March our 57.7% being 706 ish bopd
The accounts reference that miscible flooding had increased this by 50% taking us to 1800 bopd (1038)
I keep saying it and I will say it again. Those that sell on re-list out will lose out.
Opening SP will be based on 1800 bopd ( 57.7% of)
Q2 accounts are due. It’s this uplift that will be transformational to the SP, the miscible flooding will have been operational of 3 full months.
Miscible flooding doesn’t normally return an instant 50% outputs (which shows field is responding better than expected to miscible flooding).
I am expecting the bopd to have jumped up to 2500-3500 bopd range.
I believe there will be an opertunity from the Q1 - 1800 bopd figures and Q2 - ( pos 2500-3500 bopd) to track the increase over and above the Rider Scott report to demonstrate by how much miscible flooding could be responding better than anticipated output in the report.
I’m hoping that maybe the company will do this for us and possibly increase maximum output targets or pull the road map for bopd milestones forward.
That appears shaa, to be quite a high sp figure for a PE of 15 :
1038bopd. (57.7% of 1800)
$44.5 after netbacks, x360, giving $16.638M
& using today’s OS figures 15.624, gives an EPS of 0.00106
Then your PE of 15 gives $0.0154 & at today’s £/$ rate 1.397
Using 17B OS then makes it 1.0p
As hfb infers, there could be games played by the MM’s keeping the sp low (tied in with LLTH negative sentiments) to entertain the UK institutions interest But against this, I suspect there might well be some interest from across the pond IF they then see the previously quoted target of 7000bopd over 7 years being realised, which may then scupper any misbehaving by the MM’s.
USA sentiment to O&G stocks is greater than the UK’s as seen in their average PE figures, ie. Current PE of 25 & a Forward PE of 38, as apposed to Current PE of 16.98 for UK O&G.
There also needs to be verified the revenue generated via SWP pipeline fees in addition to the operating & production fees obtained from Cuda & CNOOC, which although it may be only available quarterly, should then drive the $28 netback costing down..
Interesting Mikey, let’s see what happens if we increased ownership or BOPD.
Credit must go to Charlie as he has done some nice spreadsheets
I have done a lot of research on PE ratios.
Trackers and spreed sheets put together used a mid point or average of PE17 as the average PE ratio for similar companies was 16.8 this fluctuation also went up to 33 (which is where I drew a line in the sand) max point.
There were two spurious PE ratios as high as 48 & 52
I think a PE ratio of 15 to 17 wouldn’t be a million miles away for COPL.
Other things to consider - company is operating in a conflict free country and has a 40 year operational cycle with an upward curve, which should offer a lot more substance when calculating or projecting future earnings.
We could possible see the PE 15-17 used but increased by the market as bopd and revenues increase over the coming 12-18 months.
The market might support a higher PE (higher than 15-17) ratio based of forecasted / projected bopd and earnings, as first update of miscible flooding in a very short period has demonstrated an initial 50% jump and that the field is responding better than anticipated / expected.
Following the Q1 accounts on 23rd I’m starting to get excited that the FSA can quickly finalise the prospectus with this information and agree a re-list date as early I hope as next Wednesday 4th August with Q2 accounts landing Monday 9th August.
This would give 3 trading days Wednesday - Friday to rise nicely and allow those that want to get out to get out and those that want in to get in before picking up again on Q2 accounts with a full week to run and gather some real momentum (well that’s an ideal situation, we wait to see what happens in theory) - GLA
I would say your estimate for a PE of 15 is probably close. Below is an example of how I calculated it. Please note, numbers are ballpark.
P = Prospectus company value divided by number of shares
£300M/15.5B = 1.93p
E = Annual earnings (extrapolated from latest accounts) divided by number of shares
£20M/15.5B = 0.13p
1.93/0.13 = 14.8 PE Ratio
Some calcs flying around but some say a PE of 15 is around 1.75p, now if a PE of 33 is used then that is around 3.40p
Factor in Nigeria and things could get interesting really quickly…..
dbh, I give up, even his phraseology gives away his age. I doubt he knows nothing about sarcasm or even how to spell it. still as you said joey is pure comedy gold and gets the richard head award for most amusing post(s) of the day.
PE ratio isn't 'set' by anyone. It's simply one of a number of ways of valuing a company.
As a starting point we would need to know the company's earning per share. Once we have an idea of that then people will take a view on whether the resulting PE ratio makes the company's SP look undervalued or overvalued.
Plenty more information to come yet before anyone can come up with a reasonable guesstimate. We are, after all, a new company with (hopefully) rapidly increasing revenue.
That is the funniest comment of the day from a 12 year old who thinks investing is spending his weekly pocket money. I do not filter this idiot because of the moronic things he says make me laugh.
Mick2 - come back to me once you have learnt some more about share dealing, you obviously have no idea. Now toddle off and buy some books, you might learn something. At the moment you are just eating my time
It has been as high as 38 and was 25 in Jan 2021 so no idea how we get to nail a PE down to COPL
I stand to be corrected but think a PE of 15 is standard.
joey do you have any idea what rhetorical means, let alone wit and sarcasm.
How does the PE get evaluated or is it based on investor sentiment?
joey2000, you must be still wet behind the ears, it was a rhetorical question. I don't know about you been a jolly fellow but you are certainly good for a laugh.
if it starts to low , as many a share it will stall as the in for the spike easy profits
wonga lenders with just as they did Dec-March , dump dump dump add in the
expected slicing and profit taking by those long locked in and we will be having
pre suspension deja vu
All will depend on WHO is sitting in the wings , REAL INVESTORS in for the journey and
not just the spikes, if they come in , imo they should with the KNOWN production plan
potential rapidly rising flows/revenues, dividends coming (mentioned)
REAL II's , HNW , Funds arrive and soak them up quickly , we will at some point break free
of the sellers bigger we will stall and fall until they are done before recovery and a steady
rise over the year on hopefully , solid news , all going to plan, plus anything else that adds
to the story , Nigeria return to ops etc etc
Shaa's first post should give a clue , how the MM's are set up will tell a story, as only they
will know what they have in the background and then all eyes out for end of day late
and after close completed Monster volume trades, those 2 , initial set up and late
reveals, should give us all a good indication of what is to occur
Sometimes with these events its , a big rise from previous close and just keeps on going
for several sessions before settling into a new bread and butter trading range, imo not
going to be the case here
We know player with form primed, we know many frustrated at having their dosh locked in
for so long and if we open even double 0.8p will probably at least part exit
As said expecting more pain before the real gain as the game is played out between Sticky
Investors in for the journey and those more short sighted lenders , who do not care "IF" a
company may explode or not over the year and have their own agenda and profit margins
If a major sector player puts in a buy order for 500m-1b at say max 0.65, you can be sure
they will make sure they get it ,before we move on, if multiple background players at
a price, those players will get services and the rest of us will just have to go with the flow
until the likes of habitual safe profits dumper Hadron and those accumulating for the
journey play tug of war again (Feb-March deja vu)
Will be pleasantly surprised if it happens quickly but as said a few times , first target has to
be our own market peers oil and gas production companies listed in London and taking
their market capitals and dividing by our share base give 2 immediate groups
1.75p - 2.25p and then 3p - 5p
Our first target has to be at least to match our peer group surely ?
HFB signing off GL to all
o.o.o for the next couple of weeks at least, a more pressing issue to deal with lol
Problem is the accounts concludes 16 days for Q1. The also do not include miscible flooding increases apart from the 1800 bopd 50% initial increase.
Prospectus will be based on the 1800 bopd as stated in the last RNS update unless they agreed higher with FSA (which I can’t see)
Those that think selling on open want their heads looking at imo, there will be no option to trade and get back in cheaper. Imo ii and PIs will be hoovering everything up in sight.
Updates to the above figures are due, they will come from the Q2 accounts / RNS updates which won’t land before prospectus as not to effect re-listing but can be expected within a week of re-list imo.
Next week or week after is 4/5 weeks after Q2 ended. Accounts are recently audited for RTO and will not be delayed anywhere near as long as Q1 and should be ready for filling as we are now officially a month into Q3.
We have all but one of the variables to calculate a educated guess on SP open
1800 bopd min
$72.5 WTI price
0.73 USD to GBP
57.7% (0.577) ownership
We really are guessing without the PE ratio
It is the main value in this whole calculation - I call it the multiplier as whatever you achieve from the above figures your going to times it by the PE ratio then divide by shares in issue to get the SP
Without it , it really is guesswork we know the bopd is only going to increase so it’s not rocket science to arrive at the conclusion that the SP is only going to continue to grow with the increased output.
“ If it opens at less than 1.2p it will be swamped.”
In your opinion.
Mick2 - sounds like you have no idea about share dealing. If you are asking questions like that do not spread bet, you’re going to lose a lot of money
Spotify - I’m quite a jolly fellow actually, just realistic
silly and silly, think my keyboard is broke
Personally I dont want this to open sill high as will give the MM room to play sill games.
Start at at sensible base and then grow on each news drop.
You can't do anything with your spread bet at all while suspended, not on ig anyway
Joey, were you born a miserable ****** or did you have to work on it to get this good?