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Panama - not so much a story to date, more of one view on a way forward for CUDA, Good to gain other views on what sort of deal may be viable, any finance/ legal expert views most welcome....
CUDA are looking to survive this debt resolution and come out with some WI intact.
It was their stated intention that the last $4m loan gained was mainly to pay for their share of operations for BFU and SWP did indeed get paid.
AM paid $45m for 57% WI , some debt resolution etc but keeping it simple means WI 27% on same basis
Pro rata = around $22m
Add some effect for the doubling in WTI, keep reserves estimate the same as no formal upgrade mentioned yet - so perhaps $30-35m fair value all in.
They have over $60m debts so to sell it all and split up the proceeds means many creditors will go unpaid/ debts written off etc.
Its in some creditors interests - and CUDA - for them to stay in business and producing revenue, in time they can become solvent again and pay off debts.
But in that time they cant afford the Capex for their share of field development, COPL have no interest in carrying them, want their outstanding debts paid first and also want all the WI - so something has to give in negotiations.
A potenital deal may be - AM offers them perhaps 10% of BFU retained, they give 17% to COPL plus relinquish all of CC and FD and resolve the debt position. Then agree that BFU drilling put back to early 2024 and when their contributions start - equally AM may wish to focus on CC/FD in any case for drilling and only have MF at BFU in the short term.
Its a negotiation, offers may go back and forth until resolved, but this potenital scenariomay be better than just a straight offer from another bidder of all the WI and CUDA fold, debts written off.
Could someone summarise the whole Cuda saga for the benefit of Newbies and LTHs. It gets more complex by the hour.
I have little doubt CUDA lies at the heart of all our current misgivings.I also have little doubt Art cannot give us the updates we all feel are due until the CUDA deal is resolved or shelved .
Either way the Market will not wait for ever.
The pressure on all involved is unbearable.
Noob67.
Sorry I meant this one:-
On July 26, 2021 Southwestern filed a Claim (the "Claim") in the Eighth Judicial District Court, State of Wyoming as Plaintiff against Cuda, Bridging, and Tallinn as defendants. Southwestern's Claim seeks the following heads of relief: a judicial foreclosure order against the defendants of the Southwestern Liens on Cuda's interest in the Unit; an award of damages for breach of contract by Cuda....
Excellent as always tedoby.
COPL at the front of the que?
COPL’s acquisition of CUDA may not be just about money and the purchase price guys. There may be other aspects. There may be legalities that we’re not aware of under consideration for instance.
Without doubt there will be legal agreements in place between CUDA and now COPL (formerly Atomic) regarding the ownership and use of the infrastructure at BFU & CC albeit indirectly in COPL’s case. Nevertheless I imagine COPL’s interest as the Parent will be explicit.
If those contracts are not capable of being assigned or novated by CUDA without COPL’s agreement (which I suspect may be the case) it may be quite a problem for CUDA and possibly a huge impediment to other suitors.
Worst case for CUDA and it’s creditors as I see it is that the asset only has a value to COPL and it cannot readily be sold to anyone else. There may be other laws in the US that could be brought into play to unwind the situation, I’m not sure. Laws such as the “natural justice” or “duty to act fairly” as it’s sometimes known here in the UK for example. But I’m guessing CUDA and it’s creditors would much prefer not to go down a route through the courts unless pushed.
Subjudice may also be a consideration in the case that’s now running in the courts against CUDA too. Although I imagine if suitable wording is used it’s not the main reason behind the lack of news.
In my simple minded mind I find it helps to picture situations like this as an archery board. Whilst Directors etc sit in the inner circle all knowing as “insiders' ' under the market rules the knowledge gets dissipated to the outer circle where we as retail investors and “outsiders” sit.
We’re never going to have the information others have in the other circles and that makes it nigh-on impossible to know what's going on. We’re reduced to guesswork and to my mind there’s nothing wrong with that. But with limited knowledge it’s wrong to be standing in judgement of others in public as some seem to be doing on here.
We just need to give it time to play out. Patience is a virtue as they say and having read some of the posts Matthew 7:5 couldn't be more appropriate in my humble opinion.
Fingers crossed we get news and an update soon guys.
AIMHO.
“ Shaa, choosing the facts as it suits the agenda I see...”
Lol!
There is nobody on this board that the above statement applies to more then you ironhide, telling us there are “sells after sells” when the opposite is happening, “looking terrible”, “nobody buying” etc, etc.
So, we are producing more and more but are valued less then others that are still throwing darts in the dark (88E) - go figure!
I never know how you will react on any given day, you are like a Man United fan, what is it today Ole IN or Ole OUT.
Sorry Ironhide may be i was a little harsh,
your daily comments on sp are not without some merit,
but blanket statements about our situation without some facts to back them up . hmmmmm.
So the reports written by industry experts who are saying 80p on the ‘known facts’ are wrong ironhide?
We are lower/level then pre Atomic purchase, considering we got to 60p equivalent on just news that we and Essar have agreed to work together - I would say we are grossly undervalued.
Seen it so many times, we will move up when it’s time - without further RNS’s.
Atomic purchased for $ 54 million when WTI was $39 lender approved,
current WTI $82 making purchase in excess of $110 million now,
do the maths,
or do you think the lenders are idiots too.
Mcap 47 million .
Do the maths.
GLA
Sorry Ironhide but i can be silent no more,
if you think it is priced in then you are brain dead and do not understand how to calculate the figures for yourself .!!!!!!!!!
Expose ? Have I missed something?
Agreed Shaa,
but even if not imminetely it will come ,
i would like to buy some more lol,
so low sp for a little longer would suit me lol.
Yes illusion oilexco expose not good.
However, if we look at the current situation then the future is bright, things are starting to come together and more importantly NOTHING priced in - huge upside to shareholders!
What Art has done by acquiring Atomic will soon be evidence, a remarkable coup that wouldn’t be possible today.
Talk about being in the right place at the right time!
Looking forward to a major re-rate imminently.
I am sure there are those who will be surprised and worried after reading the oilexco expose,
Art is a go getter and I hope he still is, I am not here to make a few pence, I want much more than that.
It was a different world and a different scenario back then,
Art made mistakes clearly but as mentioned before he is a driven man,
he will have learnt from his mistakes and would not want failure to be his legacy.
Lenders will not let him have a free run again ( note our current lenders control of spending ),
Banks and institutions due diligence is far more thorough today.
Offshore exploration is massively expensive compared to on land.
If Nigeria does come to pass we have a partner and a senior partner so all the checks and balances are in place for the skittish amongst us.
But for exploiting a known field Art is your man.
Now back to the current situation.
Firstly to the documents ( Give ) gave us,
SWP are 100 % operators of the unit yes but nowhere in the lease document did it say we have 100 %WI so my view of the deep drill is unchanged it may apply to that one tract of land but still the March RNA applies until we are told different, if you blow up the tract map they all say bar one read ( Atomic oil & gas llc ET AL ) ET AL being the significant part,
but curiously tract 19 close to the southwest corner is different stating ( Chesapeake llc et al ),
curious.
When we completed the Atomic + entities purchase in March it cost us $ 54m when oil WTI was $39/ bl.
Today it is $82.07 / bl.
TO PURCHASE CUDA.
Tallinn now senior lender $13 million
BFI inc through receivers owed circa $40 million
Shareholding 45,536,200 @ 0.055 cc / share $ 2,503,364. ( bfi 19.98 % ) .
Therefore.
Tallinn will want their $13 million ( original interest rate 12 % )
Receivers @ a generous 20% $ 8 million
Shareholders which I would like
Art to pay $ 2.6 million.
WI $ ??????????.
If Art could purchase Cuda with Alberta gas included south of $30 million would be a fantastic deal
for us.
An average increase of 30.02 % WI over the 3 fields ,
I will not try to quantify the possible increases in revenue and reserves better men than me will do that.
But it does not take a brain of britain to work out that at anywhere near this price ( - hedges probably ) is another coup or cuda for us lol .
Therefore no news could be good news but remember our senior lender will have to be convinced and consulted along with all the other parties, AND THIS WILL TAKE TIME.
GLA