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Boom
Great RNS ! Blue day
Lb.,
Touché, nice one,
But you did recognise that the particular ii only focused on CFD’s ?
Tilburn,
Nice one. That I suspect is the controlling factor, his loyalty towards staff & the goodwill factor when their jobs are kept safe with the £40M debt & loans paid off.
The deal is done imo and Atomic seller happy enough - a 35% rise in PoO isnt enough for him to pull out and change his personal plans he has put in motion no doubt - he is late 60s and wants to move on - this deal allows him to do so after what must have a been a stressful time for him and his Southwestern team.
He is not going to pull out now in the hope of another deal at some stage and disrupt his plans - what message to market, if PoO rise when he is negotiating again with a new buyer he could do the same after all. He gets a good share stake in his lifes work he built which should grow and in time offset the PoO increase.
Also its a Private company with probably long term friendships with his staff who would also be disrupted if he pulls out now - with this deal they keep their jobs and goodwill legacy towards the seller - a new deal with a larger company may not keep them on - not all decisions are about money.
Lol, spitting my tea out that someone (CC.’ 21.57!) has the temerity to point out the elephant that’s standing in the corner of the room. I’d disagree though with the ‘.. Atomic could go back to market and seek a potentially much higher price. ..’ which would be in line with the company spin that ‘old oil man looking to retire’, but Not in line with the old adage that ‘old oil men never retire’ & input into that a fistful of $$$’s to play with as well?!
Nice that the bb has progressed & is now recognising possible elephants. Its behaviour 4 years ago with no one commenting or recognising the consequences of OPEC’s cuts, paralleled to Nig’s upgrades on the Bonga & its other strategically important assets, was somewhat rueful. Sure, today, LB & others of a certain millennial ilk, will again chant their own death laments, but if its sound enough for the ii’s, this will hopefully get over the line, this time.
Nice production figures from yesterday’s posts. The 10” feeder pipe that was coming off the Brenda is perhaps a dream too far, as was the almost completed purchase of the whole Balmoral PV. Lol, the game needs serious poker players and we need a serious player (21.57 hit the bullseye). Can the old flame though be relit.. GLA.
except not expect...... been a long day
Nothing is certain in this world, expect day and night. It will be what it will be. Of course we want for all of us for AM and COPL to be successful and finally a prodcuer. We just have to wait and see. For me everyone has their own opinon on thsi BB and rightly so and shouldnt be knocked down for sharing their own views.
1% Blue is better than 1% Red. GLA
CawCaw,
I am going to report you to the authorities, for inciting a share price in a reckless manner!!.
"I will go on record as stating that Art is welcome to print 5 billion shares or ten if he acquires 100% of Atomic."
When, the deal goes through I will personally passing him blank sheets (naked) if required.
But would have no idea, what went on at the other side......
https://tenor.com/view/9to5-copier-office-busy-at-work-gif-12805677
GLA. DYOR IMHO
Looking forward to 2021 AGM.
CawCaw, I think you’re ace man. I’ve always loved your balanced posts and have had little reason to disagree.
I just feel if this deal was done in August, money already changing hands etc.. surely there has to be something legally binding behind that? I’m aware of the 15% stake, but if we have provided money to temporarily increase production / maintain production at all surely we would be owed for that?
Muel
Careful language on Jan 8th...Ryan Gaffney, CFO, added: "The closing of both portions of the Placing will allow the Company to progress the Atomic acquisition. COPL's access to the equity markets has provided much confidence to debt investors with whom we are in discussions with to provide the balance of funds required to complete the transaction. We are targeting the receipt of binding Term Sheets from the targeted investors in the near term thus allowing COPL to progress to completion."
The last sentence now the term sheet has been released by RNS means we are now ready along with completed DD, 'to progress to completion'.
Bring it on
Same time!
Also, Haddon would not have bought 10% of the company if there was uncertainty here. When over the line production will increase 'rapidly' and additional buying nstitutions above £50M will make this a very different company.
Art sounds like he's got his vision and plan almost rubber stamped. Not long to find out either. This acquisition has been on going since October and we are almost to completion now
Thanks for replies,
Good to get second opinions on my own. "madness" investing here:-)
Agree that the deal is probably out of Atomics hands, and that he was free to brag after a certain point.
Oh, one last thing for the sticklers for detail.
1.37 mins into the, parade, he mutters something.
Was it:-
a) sometime
or
b) sametime
GLA.
Gogo Arthur and team
Art also states in the interview that we have access to technical team that can do a lot more with the field compared to their small team, which we will take on that includes one engineer for example. Art's tone has changed he is not mentioning just the 15%. He is focusing more on the horizontal drilling etc and future prospects. Atomics shareholder will probably let his eventual COPL shares run for a lot more money if this is pulled off as we are lead to believe. Otherwise, Atomic would also likely have to buy out the other two entities which sounds like too much strain for the owner whose heart really is else where. If Atomic don't play this right they will have a mountain of mess to manage so I think it will suit both parties to conclude the deal. Due diligence is completed according to the interview so we're are now focused on bringing the credit to the table and finalising the deal to completion.
Cawcaw. Don't start worrying us at bedtime.Lol
I dare say at this point it's out of Atomic's hands. If creditors are calling in debt, Atomic doesn't have the luxury of going to the highest bidder, the creditors will be telling them "that's your lot"... I dare say that Art wasn't allowed to go public with this before the deal was accepted on some sort of agreement, things like this tend not to get out on a handshake alone.
@Muel I believe that the deal could hypothetically fall through, and moreover that Atomic has every incentive to kill it. The reason being the change in the price of oil since the original terms were inked.
If the $9MM cheque sent to Atomic by our fearless leader (grrrrrrrr) was enough to keep the wolves away, (by servicing debt and increasing the miscible flood,) Atomic could go back to market and seek a potentially much higher price.
Why Art a) bragged in the media that we are underpaying, and b) chose to send a large amount of liquid cash to a distressed seller, I will never understand.
Also, recall that from the very start we have been told what would happen if the deal didn't complete. (=retain 15% WI)
Not buying Atomic has been a consideration since the day we said we *were* buying them.
Do understand that this could go either way.
I am long and believe it will complete. But I have no illusions about certainty, or about our leader Captain Thousandexcuses.
Hello Shouston,
To answer your two questions:
1) How are we funding the gas purchase deal? That was part of the purpose of the original $1MM deposit and $8MM purchase of 15% of Atomic. To get them liquid again in December, so that they could boost NG and Propane purchases for the purpose of boosting the miscible flood rate. I believe that this was in one of Art's many YouTube parades. (LOL @ Parade)
2) Are we confident that the $4MM USD dilution won't happen? We are confident that the $4MM USD dilution *will* happen unfortunately. It is an explicit term of the deal, and also Art supposedly emailed an LSE member directly to confirm that this will happen.
As much as we would all like to see Art buy shares on the open market and hand them to the Atomic seller, it ain't gonna happen.
For one thing, he would be doing that using the brand new credit facility. This is NOT what the lenders had intended the cash to be used for (propping up the share price to protect PI's), I can guarantee that. No way would the lending board send him a cheque for $4MM just to buy his own stock.
For another thing, Art would have to file paperwork in Canada if he bought that much of the company at once, including declaring his intentions.
The key to the dilution IMO is the share price on deal day.
If Art closed the deal right now today, it might be another billion or billion and a half shares issued. Gross.
But if he was able to release valuable material good news, the share price might have climbed to a level at which the dilution didn't hurt so much.
That's my personal guess regarding his purpose for publishing the "terms sheet" non-news RNS. Anything to juice the share price and create momentum. Truth is that a terms sheet is meaningless without a lending agreement, which we do NOT have. The market reacted as such.
We need a confidence-inspiring CEO that the market wants to rally behind. Not one that makes investors involuntarily look away every time they hear his voice. Yeah yeah Art, drilling Nigeria in 2018 are we? Production schedule published?
In the end, whether he prints half a billion shares or two billion we are potentially in for the re-rate of a lifetime.
I will go on record as stating that Art is welcome to print 5 billion shares or ten if he acquires 100% of Atomic.
Shouston, that’s exactly what I said =p..
Joking aside I have been in here a while now and have a good 2-5 year plan.
People questioning the deal falling through, what would be the alternative for Atomic? Another deal? More time losing money? How would that work legally?
Muel
The deal...
Just so its clear in my head.
We will buy 100% of Atomic. I believe that will also include the two subsidiaries. (Pipe company and Southwestern)
That gets us 67% of the oil. We already own 15% of Atomic as of December. But advantageously 100% of the pipe infrastructure.
He has funding in place to also buy out NOP and COOP, hopefully at similar terms, as one is bankrupt and the other is a forced seller.
So what's not to like. Sounds like deal of the century.
I think he said in yesterdays, parade, that he has to prove contracts are in place with the gas supplier as part of the loan deal. Looking at the annual costs of the gas, he needs to secure a large USD amount of gas per week,
How are we COPL funding this initial portion.
Also is it clear that the $4m shares to Atomic involved no further dilution.
Sentiment and good news is needed.
GLA
I’m not fed up, from a personal prospective I will be pulling the trigger on a top up Friday so these levels suit me just fine.
I presume we’ve all done the reading, it has been highlighted many times on this board by our astute posters. I couldn’t care less if anything got extended at this point so long as the deals still on as the fundamentals remain the same.
Best of luck,
Muel
Missing a deadline for a lease extension is in itself material news.
Art cannot fail to update the market on 226 as he has in the past.
Either the extension comes and we go full gamestop, or it does not and we get another opportunity to load the boat.
Either way, Art can't just let the critical live-or-die date of our nine-figure investment come and go and not say a word. And hope nobody notices.
(Cathy, are you listening?? THAT is why Art can no longer talk the share price up on demand! )
Just pondering , with no news due for a couple of wks atleast , are we going to slip down to 0.20 i wonder? Art has completely ignored the fact Nigeria was meant to be updated by the 29th unless we hear tomoz obvs , which i think we know theres more chance of Art winning Iron Man 2021 than us getting any info on that .
I like others are getting pretty fed up here , seems like everything with this share is manana but nothing seems to push the sp in the right direction, anyway dare i say it, hey ho lets see what we get tomoz ..
Alb
Where are all the millennials and why can’t they pump COPL on Reddit like GME BB and AMC ;)