Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
That made me chuckle Nwgh!
Bell
What is stated in the tax legislation is one thing, whats actually done out there is another matter entirely
e.g
https://www.rt.com/business/452296-nigeria-seeks-20-billion-tax/
Is an example where in past tax paid was a divergence from printed petroleum agreements -the Govt looking to reclaim the revenue as they gave away to much at the time - yet that was the written PA.
If you think that Nigeria does everything by the book and as per regulations then think again! come on - really?
look deeper in your research on what actually happens - as in the reality on royalties.
You then just list loads of negatives in a tirade
tedious - but lets go through your points one by one:
costs to COPL - free carried on drill
COPL ownership - overall can be 15% total - of a billion barrel field potential - with a stated 60k bopd target as per presentation on COPL site = 9000 bopd - im not making this up. CoS is another argument.
COPL shares scale - its part of the price we all have to pay - so what? as per my calcs still chance of very good ROI
My post is redundant cos im getting ahead of myself!? is that it?
my post was a projection of viable SP based on COPL strategy and stated intention here - if this goes well, this is the scale of the ROI potential - this then determines my investment scale and duration - each should of course dyor
I do of course agree that first they need to get PSC, then strike oil of course, but its hardly dreaming if a reasonable success case is assumed based on the facts in public domain.
60 day notice - I don't know the source of this but hardly an unusual term and makes eminent sense - someone else can provide a link hopefully.
There are of course negatives and risks - as I stated - but your hardly being objective - can you seriously see zero positives here? Are you invested - or just looking to put us all right?
The tax regiime is not ooaque , its all written down in the petroleum legislation . Its very convenient for you to label it opaque.
Factor in all the costs , ( in the COPL presentatiions) even with a covid discount, all the taxes, OPL toOML fees ,approvals , timedelays, the literally 6 monthly massive increase in shares shares and the miniscule 10% COPL ownership .
Its redundant because you are ignoriing todays issues and gettiing way ahead of yourself - dreami g of palm trees and ****tails .
Again point me to the paragraph in the legislation where the NNPC has to give 60 days notice of tefmi ation if existing or an expired licence ......
Bell
Happy to debate - if you can provide some evidence to support your views rather than just reject my entire posts findings because you didn't like it and claim that most of it is redundant - what exactly?
If tax and royalty?
I have researched the tax and royalty regime in Nigeria - its extremely opaque to say the least.
Basically its a lobbyist dream - what can be "engineered" is the order of the day - tax paying avoidance is an industry out there - royalties - get this - are paid only after each operator has itemized his exploration costs and only then applied - these costs are never audited. - and so royalties are rarely paid and if so nominal sum. The sum of all this is me being generous on the combined 70% tax/royalty estimate
But as I said - adjust the % or production to suit your view.
If oil strike - what bopd do you think
what tax paid
what revenue
even if Im out by 75% - its still provides an SP of 2p - 10 bags from here.
what exactly is redundant
You obviously spent a lot of time on that post . Pity most of it is redundant and I suggest you take a look at the licensing fees and royalties paid to NNPC .
Here’s a question for all you believers .
Have any of you read the Nigerian petroleum act ?
If you have then please direct me to the section where it states the authority has to give 60 days notice to the assignee of termination!
The assignee has to give 60 days to the authority but far as I can see not the other way around .
Also hate to bring the up but the licence is now lapsed .
The SP has reduced due to:
- C19 impacts causing delays
- NHSD standard approach causing delays on award of PSC
- Sentiment - market needs to see proof of the PSC and doesn't really get the nuances here - prove it 100% is the stance
- Trading, shorts etc as this is played.
- PI selling as SP falls and so self sustaining
But none of the fundamentals have changed a jot.
This is still an excellent asset, COPL can gain 15% , is free carried for drill by a Major company with deep pockets to prosecute a comprehensive drilling campaign. There are risks, that goes with this territory, but oil already found, surrounding a producing field provides a very good overall CoS.
Once the trajectory is set the MM will let this go. so where could it end up?
• The original field target was 60,000 bopd – this will change when Essar get going but a good starting point for a high level potential value to COPL
• Assume 15% total COPL share is gained and that over time this bopd amount is achieved for the sake of argument –adjust down or up depending on your viewpoint
• So that’s 9,000 bopd share that can be brought to market rapidly
• Assume $40/b and local Nigerian tax/royalty rate at 70% total
• Assume $20/b extraction costs
• That’s a $19.4m profit p.a
• Then to calculate market cap - PE ratio
PE ratio - Oil industry (Q4 2019) was 17 (ref Starchild)
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-pricetoearnings-ratio-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp)
• So 17 x $19.4m profit p.a= $331m mc
• Divide that by 3.5B shares in issue = 9p a share SP
• Its assumed eventually COPL sell this asset - price realised may be the mc value
• Special dividend payment of 3p a share not unrealistic in this scenario, explains the substantial share positions taken by the board.
• The remaining funds from this sale could then be used to develop other assets secured, news of which could be this quarter once PSC and drilling approach news is understood.