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The trading the past few session on much much lower volumes , is very deja vu to the two weeks (but higher volumes) just prior to suspension.
Brick wall rangebound, with an active seller but equally, an active buyer being a tight wad , wanting those shares but not willing to chase the price up to get them.
agree with LB , finally nearing the exit, the numbers do not make sense across the entire period, more warrants excised than just the 26p allocation and the uncertainty of the Atomic ex owner held/dumped part/all , all add to a big fat ?
Only back traced to last summer and found the 0.15p warrants , how many others where still outstanding who knows, bit late in the day to go do a full dredge but pretty confident those probably amongst the extra 0.53m (53m pre-c) excised.
The bumming chums YA/rgo , also had around 1.55m (155m) allocated last year at 0.39p/39p and they are not known, to hang on to anything they can make a profit on, for more than 30 seconds lol
perhaps they excised and dumped , within the billions churned from 0.6p down on the 17th August
The RNA on Q3 results banged out on SEDAR/RNS news wires on 16/17th November 2020 with the practice ,they had earlier in the year to satisfy a return to market, would hope this years are prompt and earlier than last year.
Could well be , for what ever reasons , he had geared his all , to trying to make sure the market is CLEAN , in preparation for the lead up to those results being released.
perhaps a Carlsberg scenario coming up
Monday 1st November , in keeping with LB estimation , we start to rise slowly but a rise Tuesday 2nd - MF update Thursday 4th - Deeps results published / Friday 5th - FOMO on fire Essar we have been summoned to Nigeria to finalise, updated license / Monday 8th - Q3 results published / Monday 15th Nigeria not only renewed on improved financial terms , Essar we will commence drilling in December , using our own rigs that have now become available
We all saw the forward selling since December , each and every tap of the well
Since the ball started rolling in December we have churned 41,270,000,000 share
In the old days they would put into RNA messages the ,,, has agreed ,,, orderly market at a rate of 15-20% of daily volume, the modern day wonga's, hit the exit a lot quicker
say 30-40% of daily volume 12-16 Billion potential placing/warrants dumped already during all the placings etc since Atomic announcement.
Some of the heavy days late February into March and the absolute blitz 17th August suggest many of those days even higher, the 17th alone was around 50% of the entire half month of August back in play
All guesswork , same with warrants more than the 32p/26p warrants already exicsed since March 1.553 excised the 26p all converted would be 1.50b
So question marks remain over OTHER warrants excised v total 26p/w available , some warrants last year issued at 0.15p and more at 0.39, they could also have been in the excised mix and dumped from 0.6p down , on the 17th
Hadron TR1 had dumped most of its placing shares pre suspension, the rest very quickly on return
The final question mark is the ex atomic owner , what did he do if anything ?
Only way we will know is , the handbrake comes off, all done , or we get news and breakout, without an immediate pull back from further QP dumpers.
Rough figures: March 1 week - average volume 1 bil per day = 200mil placing shares per day sold * 5 = 1 billion August 2 weeks - average volume 450mil per day = 100mil placing shares per day sold * 10 = 1 billion September 4 weeks - average volume 400mil per day = 100mil placing shares per day sold * 20 = 2 billion October 3 weeks - average volume 150mil per day = 37.5million placing shares per day sold * 15 = 565.5million =4,565,000,000 sold. Roughly 450,000,000 left and although it won't be spot on these figures will be close and just shows this is definitely still placing shares from March.
Average DAILY volume September 378m aka 3.78m a day Just going off HFB's figures that average of 400mil volume per day is probably good. I always work placings on a basis that 25% of volume is placing shares. 50% buys 50% sells. 50% of that 50% of sells PI's, 50% placing shares = 25%. This has worked out spot on multiple occasions. HFB's figures show 95million placing shares sold per day. 95million divided by 4.35billion is 9 weeks. Then warrants 802.5million = another two weeks. 11 weeks from relist = 1st Nov.
not really Shaa , took me 30 seconds to find it and a few minutes of copy and paste lol
one figure of interest in amongst all the other guff and charts , was an estimated end of 2021 production figure of 2800bopd
If that was based on the upper level misc flooding started in Aprils ramp up , its a tasty figure to play with, if it was with reference to the Cuda stated 30% at the time, that would indicate a total rate of over 9000bopd target
but probably ref 2800 total and based on the lower level of flooding they where already implementing as that would be double from the end of year production 2020 ?
but either way , CUDA clearly know exactly what is going on at operational and drilling levels, so zilch reason for Arty to be rigged for silent running, should be surfacing the submarine and blowing all the surface skimmer bar stewards and shorts our of the water
Well as stated many times , zilch factored in for anything, just the lowest level of fag packet the December deal was done as stated in the RNA message , $2.18 a barrel reserves when the local rate npv10/rr was $7.52 and poo $39
By cuda's September report it had reserves at $10.50 with the poo $71.5, sould be higher still with poo now over $80
The $10.50 rate from September , would give a value to sell on the original deal only of £238m
That would be my , starting point, likewise taking MC of our peer group on the London exchange , apply their MC to our share base gives £1.31 -£1.68p
Nothing more basic , than a target of joining your peer groups as you move up the league table.
Cuda Oil and Gas The key reason for investors to look at this name is for the Powder River Basin asset in Wyoming.
This area has active drilling from many private/large E&P producers with expectations for industry activity to pick up further in 2019.
The area is characterized by multiple development zones over a 750’ thick oil column with high oil-cuts and low watercuts, resulting in very strong economics, especially as the industry begins to focus on horizontal development with current frac completion techniques.
The other attraction about the area is the plentiful takeaway capacity in the area with the Casper and Guersney hubs providing access to Denver and Salt Lake City refineries
The heart of the play is in eastern Wyoming’s Campbell and Converse counties.
The majority of the recent focus with horizontal drilling has been the Turner zone with EOG unveiling two additional targets in 2018 including the Mowry and Niobrara.
There are 14 different horizons that have existing production in the Powder River Basin with horizontal well results upto 2,000 BOE/d range with high oil-cuts in most zones.
The largest landholders in the play are Anadarko, Anschutz, EOG, Devon, Chesapeake, Samson, and Wold.