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Going under for sure.
Wools accepted. Understand what Tw at and his loonies are up to and believe nothing they say. Look at the fundamentals and yo
Apologies. I am just referencing debt that TW has tweeted taking debt, warrants into account. The point I am making is that the debt is not salient part of the business case. I expect he is lying. Should have checked every single thing being said on Twitter. Profound apologies actually.
Trickmatters….suggest you check your figures because we certainly do not have half of the debt you state. Either a genuine mistake or another clown spiting lies
What happened with Muddy Sands? No idea about this reference. Not a long term holder, sorry. Interested in what you have to say though.
Bridge., that’s a fair forecast, it could as you described just as very easily go under.
I ain’t using any of AM’s in-house forecasts. I seldom read anything he writes. Someone recently posted they could no longer watch his latest video promotion. That’s where I was 12 months ago. From September last year, not a single video watched. I can not watch any of his dialogues. In my eyes, he is not to be trusted.
There is though another scenario which is not in any of AM’s charts.
Most on here have forgotten it.
Muddy Sands.
& the spike that ensued.
We're not here for Monday's results are we? $145 million debt vs 100 million boe at around $100 dollars a barrel. Recoverable. Independently verified. If indeed the sp falls to 12p they won't let you buy that low. And it will bounce back quickly. We need oil until we have renewable energy. There's a war on and a nutter who's trying to hold the world to ransom. Those are the important factors affecting the macroeconomic environment.
We were already promised a bit jump in production - remember? Was it 7k bopd? Lots of money raised and here we are with no increase in production but more big promises to increase production... we just need a bit more debt... abit more time... this is becoming on top heavy pyramid and I wouldnt guarantee any one will get there money back at 25p. Sure it could happen, if things change drastically.More chance of this going under now IMO.
Hang in there, you will get your 25p and I strongly suspect a nice spike on top of that albeit the timing will be rather last minute ; you need to go back to what happened quite recently a few years back, just 3 miles to the north-east of our field at the Muddy Sands. We now know we have similar pressure so it’s all about the engineering & admin (not AM’s strong points ) But if he can get that one well sorted I think we will then see v.similar flow rates which will then over-ride any of Mr.T’s estimations. Just a hunch imv.
Got me jealous with your Oz trip. Really got into mining this year (even TW is promoting the same stock) but again I know it’s all a bit of a flutter. Excellent book by Jim Richards ‘Gold Rush’ which gives a good grounding in the geology but also of how luck is involved. Take care!
The point is the 'massive' debt is absolutely dwarfed by the massive, recoverable asset. Some of the warrants may be getting cashed in or used for shorting. That's how nasty these people are. They will take advantage of the relative short termism of PIs. And then they will close their shorts. Winnifrith shorts the market for a living. He is now posting incredibly aggressive, abusive tweets. Why is he so worked up if he's not in? He's shorting. Taking advantage of fear of Monday's results. Which we already know will be lukewarm. But they should also include an update on the RBL and a reminder that they have 100 boe of oil, independently verified by industry experts. If this bounces back next week the relief you feel from selling will soon be replaced by schadenfreude and you will either end up buying back higher than you sold or missing out within a couple of weeks.
Unfortunately I'm still here I was hoping it would be another AST but Arthur keeps killing it every time, no point having great assets when it's got a massive debt that is serviced by dodgy financing deals that only those in the know benefit from, 25p and I will be long gone, check out SENX it's current way undervalued with a drilling campaign underway.
Shame about the VW great little vans, my next one will be a 4x4 Sunliner Habitat HA3 for the Australian outback when I move back there next year.
This share is a joke.
It used to be a banker for me but now I'm wondering if I'll ever get back to 34p break even?
Hi Antha, I took uncle Tom’s advice & vacated, shortly after he managed to salvage the plunging sp when it dropped from 32p down thru 22p. His comms with the FCA then saw AM having to respond to the market rumours when publishing the previously unknown breaking of the lender’s covenants as seen in the wee print of the annuals.
Thankfully TW managed to salvage that particular train-wreck & the sp recovered to 26p, and at which point it was au revoir for me. Lol, but then sadly, I sold the vw and had a few spare bob to play with at then c.17p. I do wish I had listened better to uncle Tom’s forecast of 10p.
Always thought this would go either two ways, AM makes a complete hash of it & we all sink or that he actually starts managing (I see him as the Bo-Jo of the Wyoming plains ie. a slap-dash approach to RNS’s & to engineering) ) & this then possibly, possibly hits the dizzy heights.
Some of the bond-holders I believe are spooked. The ‘principle’ price is initially 16.75p (13p after the 78% discount) which is for blocks of $200,000 bonds. This then changes shortly before Xmas to a principle price of 13.25 (10.3p cost price) if the loan is not sorted by then. Lol, but wishing I had listened to Uncle Tom. The BH currently looking for c.15.5p to offset the 119%.
Doug good to see you posting again, are you still in here and what are your views on this early bondholder conversion, seems to me something has spooked them?
Hope you're still enjoying your campervan, still got the VW?
Thanks intothedeep, is the suggestion that, BH are playing by the rule book cos the FCA are actually monitoring this ?!
Doug - COPL didnt get any more money; the BH conversion is just swapping debt for equity.
also people are forgetting the 119% BH early redemption charge - so for todays conversion look at it like this - they got 1,999,000 shares but the bond was actually in principle 2,557,096 shares worth
Morning Gary, lol but it’s nice to hear a moderate voice on an extremely toxic bb.
On one side of the bb there are the 4 snowflake horsemen of the apocalypse and on the other side is the Dirty Dozen, on yet another suicide mission, whilst gleefully shooting down any that question AM’s integrity.. Quite amused to say that I think the 4 snowflakes do hold by far the better arguments and which is replicated in the sp.
Thanks for that clear explanation on the 78% costings incurred,
ie that the ‘..issued 1,999,000 OS pursuant to a conversion of $400,000 principle..’
then totalled out at $312,000. COPL’s word salads are infamous.
Then puts 12.85p as the break-even point for the seller if done at today’s conversion rate..
& Why hedge their bets?
Question for the more knowledgeable:
does the raised $312k then cover the royalties that the US is currently imposing on flaring….