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"Posting high numbers, not best numbers or not low numbers doesn't look like simple
messaging."
The base case could have been outlined, but would have been used to downplay if quoted
Equally:
"The Report only evaluates COPL's working interest leasehold at the Cole Creek Unit, the non-unit working interest leasehold immediately to the north and east of Cole Creek and includes the western portion of the Barron Flats Federal Deep Unit. The Report does not evaluate the full extent of the Frontier 1 and Frontier 2 as mapped by the Company "
COPL own base and high case estimates are included in the Aug deck as being more representative of total area scale, giving:
Base Frontier 1 = 1.3 Billion OOIP
High Frontier 1 = 1.7 Billion OOIP
If you assume a similar proportional factor relationship between high and base case to the RS estimate, it gives an equivalent RS scale of Frontier 1 Base case OOIP of -31% factor.
Frontier 1 then becomes Base case estimate of 486,262,000 million barrels OOIP - just for the area they have assessed - Oh no, only half a billion barrels in Frontier 1, what to do?
At this very early stage for OOIP estimates, its orders of magnitude and is conservative.
This number is going to change constantly as drilling data is gained, further updates of the Geo model:
" Compiled to Canadian regulatory standards, the Report gives a conservative view, and we expect to see further exploration upside in due course once our drilling program gets under way in the coming months."
As context - Mexico recent onshore find of 500 million barrels is a strategic national asset:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6umuWfCfQA
Harryw i have a vision of Kevin from Kevin and Perry!
Why do I have a vision of; Yeah but, no but, yeah but…
Wow the gift that keeps on giving here (:
Ignore the troll and thanks for naming
Very SAD individual indeed posting 7 days a week when NOT invested!!!!
Coplhodler will you give it a rest, for christ sake, every poster on this board knows your views, you stink of desperation and your now very boring and oh so predictable.
Not publishing the RS report has much deeper rationale than the trite answer given by AM that retail would not understand it and could be manipulated on a BB.
He had said in previous interview in July that it would be posted once reviewed for all to see.
So what changed?
not perception of BB and retail response, it was ever thus.
He wants to keep the messaging simple without the detail - he asked 6 peers their view and they all said not to publish.
RS confirm 1 Billion barrels is enough for most and easy to comprehend.
Its leverage is all that matters at this juncture rather than retail perception for good or ill = assists in gaining RBL in perception terms for the lenders.
Well said b69
Do not engage with the green boxed brigade.....
Don't know what inane crap they have posted but just ignore the troll
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
The RBL may also be contingent on getting current production output to an acceptable minimum level.(to the lenders)
They also mentioned in the presentation the RBL may also require some level of hedging.
So I guess a few things to agree on as well as what interest rate.
@Tiburn - is there any scenario where COPL don’t get the RBL or in your view is it now just a case of agreeing the interest rate?
Thanks in advance
Critically COPL will go by their own evaluation, RS was useful 3rd party confirmation but only that - as AM said at the outset a resource report is not normally done in Canada as its not a regulatory requirement.
https://www.canoverseas.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/COPL_August_2022_Investor_Presentation_Final_080822.pdf
slide 5
"The Evaluator determines which lands to evaluate"
So up to RS on what they review -it was not like for like for COPL vs RS evaluation:
as in RNS:
"The Report only evaluates COPL's working interest leasehold at the Cole Creek Unit, the non-unit working interest leasehold immediately to the north and east of Cole Creek and includes the western portion of the Barron Flats Federal Deep Unit. "
slide 7
figure title box has assessment completed June 30th 2022 - AM may had had this report perhaps early July, so a few weeks of q&A and checks
slide 8
Internal Frontier 2 Net Pay Map
COPL had 2 feet contour spacing , RS 10 feet spacing so more conservative
COPLOOIP: 351,910,000 bbls
RS OOIP: 217,365,000 bbls
"Conforms to a geologic model for an offshore shelf bar sand analogous to other Frontier fields in the Powder River Basin"
So geo model conforming to other producing Frontier fields corroborated by RS,
Geo modelling updates in future has this substantiation.
No other data on Frontier 1 shown in the deck but RS summary in RNS at
Frontier 1: 704,728,000 Bbls.
It would have been interesting to see the net pay figure for the main Frontier 1 find at least, but redacted for a reason, perhaps extent of find into non copl lands, Geo model output is commercially sensitive.
Then operational aspects and finance summary, RBL expected by Q4 in 6 weeks
Spud of these two wells in Q4
The first horizontal well will target the Frontier 2 sand at a location in the Barron Flats Federal
(Deep) Unit
• The second horizontal well will target the Frontier 1 sand