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I see a few have mentioned my £11 SP estimate and was going to write a detailed calculation on why that is achievable but then I read doug's Sat 15:53 post (below) which is basically my own thinking.
"Reverse engineering Antha’s calc of £11 can see it is a nice round figure, £11 x 194M = £2B by inputting Shaa’s lowest PE of 5 & £2.20 per share for 5000bopd, then gives Antha’s calc as a reasonable possible when 25,000 bopd is achieved. So, 25 of the estimated 150 wells if only 1000bopd dropping to 8 wells required if nearer the 3000bopd horizontal well figures. A similar flow rate btw c.25,000 bopd to what AM achieved in the North Sea. That though was then worth an Enterprise Value of $4.2B & an mc of $3.8B Then appears that the PE has increased inline with flow rates. & that at £11 there is still a bit extra value to go to match AM’s previous ranking."
Obviously the field will have to be proven up first which is why I gave a three years time span, the SP will rise with each new well added and should reach £3 to £6 organically, the big driver though will either be a US matched PE ratio and/or TO by a major (re Cove Energy bidding war), this of course doesn't even include COPL's other projects.
for e.g. our Q3 was a single RNA Message over rns file size 286k , theirs was 4 RNA's with the largest 686k file , with gems like , the gas supply for MF flooding had been secured for 6 months commencing 1st October and our ShoreCan with Essar jv agreement had been extended again
Still does not appear to know where is bread is buttered , Canada high 1.32m share on a rare high volume day v London 25-42.7m share session highs etc.
Bridge for the same reason , with lots of other news he tell us nothing and when he does spill some beans , he quite often has some essential details in the multiple and often much larger RNA messages over Sedar than what we get over rns
At the moment we don’t know. If a CPR was in the pipeline I don’t see why AM wouldn’t have said something at the last update. At the same time CPR is an important document needed whether we are going to sell, farm out or raise cash for development so makes sense that the data gathered over 5 months+ would be handed off to get one generated ASAP. My gut is the next RNS will be an increase in Shannon production. Something may be included about the discovery with a chance that there will be mention of interest in the data from oil majors/licence neighbours (same thing) in which case this will go ballistic. Otherwise, a nice production increase and a little clarification about the discovery will push us beyond the current trading range. Cuda news due in feb, financials due in March so plenty of news flow to look forward to including any surprises on the new asset. Interesting Times.
The formula for expected price of the recent find - not including any other part of the business (well mine any way…) £22.24 per share 1.6 billion 40% recovery 100% ownership - tbc $10 for probable (cpr confirmation) for p2 per barrel in the ground It is going to be a very good year for the COPL gang
Reverse engineering Antha’s calc of £11 can see it is a nice round figure, £11 x 194M = £2B by inputting Shaa’s lowest PE of 5 & £2.20 per share for 5000bopd, then gives Antha’s calc as a reasonable possible when 25,000 bopd is achieved. So, 25 of the estimated 150 wells if only 1000bopd dropping to 8 wells required if nearer the 3000bopd horizontal well figures. A similar flow rate btw c.25,000 bopd to what AM achieved in the North Sea. That though was then worth an Enterprise Value of $4.2B & an mc of $3.8B Then appears that the PE has increased inline with flow rates. & that at £11 there is still a bit extra value to go to match AM’s previous ranking.
Last CPR report from Ryder Scott detailed the P2 reserves, covering proven & probable. This is then against a POO of $39 so the reserves will now have changed courtesy of change in POO meaning you can take more out whilst WTI is higher. Perhaps is why end of March suggested… higher POO?
HFB, fingers crossed there’s something already in the pipeline. Lol.
pretty much , RS will either agree with our figures or not based on its analysis they will put their own spin on it
Estimated OIIP Estimated Recovery
Low , medium and High P reserves case figures
What we would like to see , is one they confirm the scale of the discovery and 2 , give us a nice recovery rate , based on other operations in the PRB
Our Shannon pre copl days was rated 18-20% but then later , revised to 50% based on initial production data and the nearby ? sands similar operation that DID achieve a 50% recovery of initial OIIP over its production life.
Others in the PRB in those layers , so other factors they could add to their assessment
Doug said they where pulling all historic seismic back then also , should have, between well data and historic , geological and seismic a pretty comprehensive set of data for RS to work with after pulling it all together this past 4-5 months.
Have waited , weeks/months and a year for CPR's to turn up, imo if they are falling off chairs , the data compiled , must be pretty comprehensive and SOLID
The pre drill was just a stab in the dark, the testbed pilot Vertical well was to test the waters for future Deeps Horizontal well drilling.
Wyoming lists 18 known layers in the PRB and cuda (pre copl days) already had in its own brokers note 8 zones identified, which makes us one light still, plus anything else unearthed by step out wells across the wider acreage
We have Shannon , Frontier x4 , Dakota and the dry at test location Lakota for 7 zones SO FAR , little doubt more will be found in the future by SWP for copl or whoever takes us out, a wet sweet spot for the Lakota , another Dakota zone, the 8th whatever that is on cuda's brokers note issued in 2019 or a.n.other from that list of 18 documented by the Wyoming Geological Society
13 of those zones are IN PRODUCTION on various licenses within the PRB
Prolific area , onshore Elephant Discovery , Surrounded by a who's who of USA Majors and Tier1 players
we are now cat nip to tiddles and chum to Jaws GLA
Steve., reserves is just a calculated estimate of proven, unproven & possible reserves and so an analysis which ties in a single well with other sources of data eg. 3D could be done. Similar to the North Slope Alaska Merlin drill which if successful then puts c.650M reserves on their books for that one field.
Interpretation is that AM initially calculated there was a significant find from the August exploratory well which he then sat on whilst he brought in additional analysts (perhaps RS) to try verify his findings (Sept.30th saw $11M cash of which $6.4M was available for capex so CPR could have been started early Q4). It is thought that having had his initial findings confirmed by an independent source that he then as confident enough to divulge the information to market ‘out of the blue’ so to speak. It’s therefore suggested that a CPR is v.close to completion.
34Q., there was a short statement posted from a respected poster on here about a week ago suggesting the CPR would not be issued until the end of March & attached to the annual reports but no explanation or reason given why, which rather sadly then coincided with multiple big sell offs. Disappointing. Is difficult to interpret a scenario where it is beneficial for AM to wait two months prior to releasing news that verifies 10th January RNS if such news is already available. The poster’s suggestion is that AM had the exploratory results in August, sat still for the next 5 months then decided to go ahead & release to the market, then wait another 2 months for the independent survey results. Will try work out possible scenarios where it assists AM to be sitting on the CPR news.
p7 of the brokers note gives a pre Drill estimate of the exploration finding 269m barrels with a recovery rate of 14%. It also values the Oil in place at $4.92. So some (semi) independent figures to do your workings off.
Also, it notes further appraisal wells will be needed to confirm. Do you think we will need to wait for further drilling for any CPR to give Reserve status to the discovery?