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your 30p close , looking a breeze at the moment LB
;))
yes he needs to learn the Lenigas art of spreading the love and keeping the generated
momentum, as said the other day , he would have put out regular MF reports and
about 10 RNA's on the deeps , the trucks arrived to a breakdown of testing on each
zone, his overkill
We need Arty to find a comfort zone somewhere between his all in 1 and Lenigas 10
to 20 but no more all in one mass blurbs , PR and reporting shockingly poor and
needs upgrading to a level that strokes the market REGULARLY , oh is that not what
they keep promising lol
:))
so 2.32 is also 14:32 Canada open
in bingo 8 is the fat lady
Arty to let the fat lady sing , just after the CSE opens to join us
:))
these codes are just to easy lol
26-Oct-21
09:07:17
29.00
8
Buy* 2.32
Prepare for increased trading volume.
Morning guys, mega busy at work today, keep up the great work.
FYI NT to buy over £1K with Lloyds
He really needs to make sure the discovery flow rates and volumetrics are in a separate RNS to the quarterlies.
our oil sells for WTI minus $3 yes
He did BB
and that is what we want to see in an RNA message, our Shannon 31mbo reserves
now dwarfed by ................ with new yabbadabbado zone 3 early analysis indicates
a potential reservoir of 100-150mb OIIP----------wowzers
and p.s. the other 5 zones have a good few million splashing around also lol
:))
Great summary as ever Tilburn but did Arr not say in the last interview they think FD is ‘much bigger’ than what they already have?
Frankly given their current market cap the unassigned upside is most of the current 2P reserves which have a NAV of around $350m at $84/bbl. The upside beyond this will be the additional reserves generated by the assets out-performing expectations and already requiring infrastructure upgrades. Recoverable increasing from 5% under natural flow rates to 50% under current gas injection test rates is very impressive, we've still to see what an unrestricted rate will be when doing 10mmcfd not restricted by infrastructure capacity or butane supply. What the large leap in recoverable tells us that for wells of moderate depth to be flowing at 4000psi is way above natural pressure and therefore the communication between injector and producer is clearly very very good. For Nigeria now to come in to rival Wyoming it would need to come good on most of the 9 compartments associated with Noa.
The unassigned upside is most of the current reserves and production let alone how much they can recover from MF of CC and the Fed deeps.
Regards,
Ed.
Tilburn..... do you think that Q3 results are actually going to be good, when AM said in the interview that production has peaked at 2700 bpd in August? Whilst I agree that there is massive potential here and production will increase significantly next year, Q3 may not be what the market is hoping for.
Tilburn..... do you think that Q3 results are actually going to be good, when AM said in the interview that production has peaked at 2700 bpd in August? Whilst I agree that there is massive potential here and production will increase significantly next year, Q3 may not be what the market is hoping for.
Current MC value is based on the market not assigning any worth to potential, forecasts or otherwise and since April start of gas flooding, only one set of Quartely results showing rising oil production, its just not enough results issued for value to be assigned.
Q3 should change that, Q4 even more so as the trend line established. In these terms, February should see gains consolidated and market belief firmly established.
Without that trend line established all other news, no matter how encouraging, is accepted but not valued in MC terms and so SP.
Also the churn of massive volumes of shares needed to occur and is largely/probabaly done.
The upside to come:
- Production value following recent increase in MF to maxium levels (perhaps the Q3 Nov 15th issue date waited for this to allow the flow rate to increase)
- Topside enhancement to cope with pressures and what this means in increased production
- BFU drill plans announced in Q4 and online for production in Feb as stated in prospectus , Shannon focus may change based on FD analysis and reservoir re-simulation ongoing. This increased production online around the time of Q4 results issued - not marketed, no perception yet of this value.
- CC well recompletion programme should finalise in Q4 with 12 wells then ready for MF once BFU fully developed (as was the plan, this may have changed) - total CC prod estimated at 400 bopd in Q4
- FD drill results and which of the 6 horizons are being targetted for drilling - confidential well results until issued Nov 15. We are told FD could be equivalent to all reserves now.
- Recovery rate upto 50% confirmed in interview - what this means outlined in Q3 results.
- Assumed an updated RS CPR may be commissioned in Q4
- The CUDA sale process - binding offer required by Oct 31st in 5 days and their senior loan has to be paid by end November. COPL has cash on account for this deal plus accordian facility which should be granted as the ROI is rapid
- Probable restructuring of debt to better terms in reaction to CUDA deal hopefuly completed and FD drill results and modelling - more reserves and higher WI = greater reserve based lending leverage.
All this to come November 15th RNS on Q3 results and following in Q4 - no upside is priced in nor the value of the current asset, its rising production or increase in WTI.
Its possible to release multiple news in RNS each week to keep momentum.