Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Th19 that would make more sense! Looked at an old document when looking for his age, still plenty in the tank for going it alone. But at the same time, retire on a fortune without the effort must be tempting!
That would be my concern and I have literally no experience of games such as that so would defer to long time oilers and investors. It would not align with ‘copl will give short medium and long term reward to investors” Art
Presumably, investors could react and respond robustly to any action that seeks to undermine their position or value per share with underhand or unethical business practice such as placing to support HNW at our expense… At that point I would confess to being entirely out of my depth so leave it for others to clarify action - reaction on issuing more shares
Art took 4 months of checking and rechecking before declaring the size of the mega asset.
So chances are if anything he underestimated.
Ryder Scott's findings will prove this.
At this point all bets are off.I have no idea how much p share but it will be HUGE
Is it in Art’s gift to make up as many shares as he likes ? Could he for example to a placing at a much higher price to let a major in once the CPR is done? Cash could be used for drills any paying off the debt
Arthur will be 63 this October according to companies house
Well I appreciate you and everyone else’s input AJEP. If a best case scenario happens it’s good to have plenty of estimates at our disposal if we ever get the chance to vote on the matter.
I know naaaaathing….
Just running the numbers> it is a commodity with specific pricing, so pure calculations such as £28 will get knocked about by real world factors that I have not included and frankly don’t know. At this time, I feel sure, if games are ever played by MMS they might be now - keep price low whilst confirmation is due, allow discussions to verify and then give entry to HNW and IIs
Last bit is probably too conspiracy, hence best to stick to the original calculations guide. ALSL best for all share holders to do the calculations so when the sale opportunity is offered we are not treated as a herd of sheep more like investors who know both the value and the price of the asset and will accept a fair offer and reject any low ball offer
The reason it’s hard to comprehend is that if £20+ was genuinely a highly possible within 12 months then the buying here would go and would be going completely ballistic.
Surely.
It can’t be just due to waiting for the cpr could it? I’m still just excited about what got with Atomic and getting £2 a share.
Alot has been said about potential SP with some posters accusing others of 'pie in the sky' ramping.
Let's get 2 points clear
1. its not a question of if we have oil. We do HAVE OIL and lots of it. CPR will confirm to us as a 3rd party how much and how much is recoverable.
2. the starting point saying only what covers our lease area of the resevoir is 1.6 billion barrels.
1.6 billion x poo $85 = $136 billions
the question is what do we take off from that base figure. Lets say 3%
136 billion x 3% even the we are left with $4 billions
4 billions / 194 millions shares = $21
convert that to sterling we still have £15
question is how quickly we can realise value
DYOR
Wookie, jus stay on the sofa until the CPR is released :-)
Wookie, it’s a binary situation in terms of multi bagging. Imagine going out with a metal detector and finding loads of metal that you believe is gold. It isn’t worth much until it is confirmed as gold . at that point you get an instant relate. We have oil but how much is commercially recoverable? CPR awaited.
Best to lie on the sofa when running the numbers reduce risk of injury Wookie :-)))
Monty but commercially it is only a monster if the oil is recoverable. We await the CPR and in the meantime we can all run potential valuation figures and get excited and there is no harm in that.
Stop it AJEP :) £28, I can’t risk falling of any more chairs
Read it plenty sage, fully up to speed with things here.
In which case the COPL union should collective bargain for NOTHING LESS THAN
$7,600,000,000
Or
£5,593,600,000
£28.83 per share
Remember we don’t have a bogof deal
Aa far as I know Art doesn't get to choose whether a take over can happen or not? Share holders get to choose. If there's an offer the markets are informed.
Wookie read the RNS. We have a potential monster discovery . We have hit the proverbial jackpot but it needs independent validation via the CPR ( competent persons report). If the CPR confirms a billion barrels in situ with decent recovery it is literally bingo.
Wookie believe it buddy - just keep running the numbers
Have a great day
My view too
Frankly can’t let myself believe we could get a RNS saying within 12 months the company or just the new discovery is being sold for £20a share.. just can’t comprehend it. Especially when we are struggling around 35 pence..
It’s very hard to process.
Spot on Miag. I’m of the same view, too.
I will not attempt to put a value on copl as a whole.
While we are waiting for the cpr, i would not be surprised if AM was in dialogue with a major, maybe passing his data over to them to let their technical experts come up with their own conclusions with a view to a JV or TO.
I also think that CPR has been already completed. Probably waiting for the Cuda decision.
I said a few days ago that in 35 years of investing I have never seen a share with greater potential and the various projections confirm this. Ultimately the CPR is the game changer we all await. I said 50% potential downside and 30x upside. Others see more upside. Either way best risk/ reward ratio I have ever seen. The drill is done. We just need confirmation of recoverable reserves. It is not an if , it’s just how much. GLA