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This latest 20% dilution has a stated aim of gaining increase in Wi to 85%, the deal price will be paid off within a year.
CUDA were not in on the intial FD well - but their WI in FD remains as per the prospectus.
Any other bidder would gain this Wi and have to pay for their share of exploration costs going forward
There are 12 drill planned - each around $2m
So any other bidder coming in has an opex cost contribution per well of c $500k, assumed that COPL pay for the majority as CNOOC are not in the frame.
So any other CUDA bidders have a $6m minimum FD drills contribution based on whats planned they are liable for on signing , without knowing what FD fully entails as its confidential and driven by the operator - plus outbid COPL.
Some potential bidders may be fine with that but it seems AM is stacking the deck in his favour in every respect to gain CUDA.
This Dakota well flow rates are confidential.
As is the Frontier reservoir re simulation using the well results and interpolation work between the previous historic wells 4.5m to the north of the drill site and 1.5m south.
The 12 drills planned are in a triangle shape across the lease area, this campaign should provide good understanding of the reservoir extent and establish the optimum position for future horizontal wells.
appreciate the research some share here... tedoboy and tilburn in particular.
many thanks both
Great insight Tiburn and Tedoby.
So if it’s around mid January then not too long, hoping for a surprise on other fronts before then but more then happy to hold for 6 weeks or so.
Lots has been said regarding our low SP and raise, one silver lining is that it’s given us guys a chance to top up if we choose.
Just keep buying at this price you will make money in the next 6 months
Good post tedoby! I certainly share your thoughts re the process for the CUDA bid especially given the urgency of the placing, the fact that it was done at such a small discount to the SP at the time and the fact we've held up pretty well since the placing tells me that there is potential from a very near term news point of view that the SP will be substantially higher than current levels.
Shaa FWIW I see COPL having two confidential streams running at the same time.
In no particular order if we look at the CUDA acquisition first. In my view the process was always going to take two to three months or so to conclude depending upon the circumstances. How many meaningful bids will be submitted and what caveats will need to be resolved for example.
But the conclusion of the process isn't the critical point in time as I see it . The bidding process will be going on quite separately to the court procedure in my view.
It will include inviting bids from any interested parties and the Receiver will need a week or so to reconcile them and select one to accept once they're submitted. That process may have started by now I think given the urgency mentioned in this week's placing.
Once a bidders offer has been selected for acceptance the two parties will go through a process of dotting the "i's" and crossing the "t's" followed by an exchange of meaningful Letters of Intent or Memorandums of Understanding setting out the Heads of Terms.
It's at the point of exchange of those documents and providing they're meaningful the parties enter into a binding agreement.
It follows that it's at that point confidentiality should be able to be lifted. I see we could find ourselves there around the middle of January or perhaps earlier if COPL are the only bidder or submit the only bid capable of being accepted.
After that the lawyers then will be tasked with drawing up formal contracts. They may take three to four weeks or so to do their bit which puts the formality of both parties signing the contracts to conclude matters around the end of February if I'm about right.
The outcome of the development well in the Dakota sands of the Federal Deep Unit is entirely different. Placement into a "tight hole" status was done for other strategic reasons too. We probably know what they are without me saying.
Although those other matters may be already in hand I'm not sure when we will hear about their outcome other than to say I doubt it will be before we hear about CUDA.
As well as Nigeria there should be other news on the Wyoming assets too I believe. So I'm not saying it'll be the middle of January before we hear anything.
This is just my opinion as always guys but let's hope it works out well for us.