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HFB, funny you mention Exxon. If they do have 1.9bn barrels Exxon would be very interested..JV, buyout . Who knows.
we already have our own pipeline and infrastructure as part of the original deal
if not taken our by one of our Major neighbours like Exxon the USA No1 , it would
be a matter of addition for further increases in already planned capacity rises.
The Shannon CC and BFU is a 5000 to 7000 to 15000 bopd scaling up operation
already, the Deeps will just speed up that requirement , so not starting from
scratch
;))
How long will the pipeline take to build comission
Any rough timescale
Someone once described the process like a party balloon
when full the gas/air inside is pushing out in all directions and firm with pressure
when pressure wanes the surface area like the balloon deflates and fall's inward
likewise the flow of oil
If the pressure maintained the balloon just gets bigger , the larger gas volume forcing
more oil to move and increase flow
Thought it not a bed description , when I knew little to nowt about the sector, more of
a Coal , Iron , PGM and Gold player back then lol
;))
Remember he also stated in a recent RNA message , Shannon operations , still
exceeding expectations (think mainly due to the Horizontal well performance)
Went on to say , they had determined that 9 vice 18 well , could now provide a
90%+ optimal performance of the field
Call me old fashioned but I take that as excellent news, less wells = projected
expenditure now available to add to the Deeps development funding, if that is
not taken out of our hands by a deep pocketed neighbour like Exxon.
;))
Just for anyone who isn't totally au fait with the practice of MGF, the longer it takes to work the larger the well (great thing normally). the reason we were able to see this taking effect quickly was that the well is early life which means that there wasn't a requirement for massive build-up in pressure to see a reaction, also as I've explained before the rock formation in the well was in good order to allow for the well to accept the additional pressure without crumbling. could be an interesting few months to see what the real reaction is from this well, not to mention when he gets a few more tie-ins in place because new wells will produce at the pressure of existing i.e. no need for additional MGF.
can you tell I'm in the office today that I was willing to write something helpful
Tiburn
I too would like to see 20000bpd come September October all worries put to rest lol
M
the field takes a while to react to the gas flood, but once going as in August then it rise rapidly
They only statred the flood in April, the gas pressure issue not forseen so thats put them back for sure, but once pipeline built away they go with a higher expected production - be great to see their revised projection charts in due course, held closely pre CUDA deal but its hoped we get a fullsome ops update post feb 4th
Must admit don't fully inderstand the 'sweep' element
If it is after capital outlay fair enough
The dotted line for a suitably monied partner may not finalise until March maybe April
That then leaves 3 to 4 months to achieve what they have not in nearly a year
AM strikes me as all or nothing type
So back burner BFU finance drills ++
Nigel little on $500k!
crazy money for a minnow with production at 2000 bopd
But not so much when FD taken into account, he was appointed about the time of many SWP staff falling repeatedly off chairs.
He should bring some great contacts and the best deal its hoped.
m22
I thought I was being conservative !
The field is responsding much better than they expected, sort out the pressures issue and higher MF rate then it should meet their projections.
As I understand it, they only take the sweep on cash not set aside for capex like drilling, its on the lender agreement.
Thanks everyone
If all is rosy Tiburn yes
However i thought sweep meant the snr lender could take all above 2.5 mil
Also ther is the oil density per mile if needed for the deep why use that capacity for shannon
I'm thinking BFU is paying for itself
They now have bigger fish
Hence separate finanance for the deep
Only conjecture
M22
Until the debt is paid in full, so my take is that if COPL are outbid any suitor.would have to pay COPL the remainder of the debt before they receive any revenue
Yes - the chat element on LSE is broken and has been for weeks. That makes it a less attractive site.
At least in next 8-9 weeks there should be at least 4-5 buts of newsflow
Dec production figures by end of Jan
Cuda news in Feb
Q4 APPROX MID feb
Cpr by end of March
Hfb might have to send Arthur a new pen at this rate his Pen's ink will run out :-)
Well said Doug
Cant believe hes on 500k no wonder we need a placing nearly every Quarter
Would agree that AM desperately needs the financial acumen of Nigel Little to take control. The mud hound is good but when off it’s leash, then it regularly becomes a bit of a disaster as reflected in the permanent horizontal slide of the sp.
All the analysts point to the massive dilutions as a humungous negative.
To try recap : from the ashes, then saw good news [16.12.20] followed by £6M then £3M placings. From the now smouldering ashes came further placing £14M (which extinguished Hadron’s 12% commitment to COPL obtained from prior placing & these were quality investors).
With the fire now lit, fuel then applied of ‘xx% increased flow rates’ [which never quite matched SWP data] & followed by another placing £5.3M, the end result of which is that the fire has been choked. It has been starved of oxygen (sentiment/value) courtesy of the humungous amount of confetti that is consistently thrown on top of it. Pi’s are again now spooked and querying if we are yet again seeing AM revert to further confetti.
At $504.96k per annum, one needs to ask what has Ryan Gaffney our CFO has brought to the shareholders benefit other than the ‘pickled finances’ as accurately described by M22.
Tiburn brilliant posting and i enjoy reading what you have to say. Problem for me as i can't view posting history, are others also getting this problem .
August drill date selected we are told due to sage grouse season, but could have been earlier
It could may be when AM thinks he will have the BFU field in order, pipeline built, MF injection maxed and has got c $24m banked to pay for the four horizontals by production revenue/accordian leverage.
BFU may well be at 7000 bopd by August as was projected
Four FD wells may give another 4000 - 12,000 bopd in Q3
COPL well poised at gross 11000 - 19000 bopd by Q3, at WI to be determined
The 2022 hedged amount of c350k barrels can be rapid at that rate, after that with rising WTI and lowering costs it gets very interesting.
Assume CUDA gained
BFU 7000 at 85% = c 6000 bopd
FD at 85% (?) for mid range 8000 bopd = 6800 bopd
Q3 net potential for COPL at c 13000 bopd
WTI at c $90/b
Assume $25 lifting costs per barrel
Royalty and federal taxes at 25%
G&A, MF costs etc
Net revenue per month circa $15m for example pays for two more horizontals, so it can scale.
Core Production scaling
massive Discovery made
finance leverage
JV options
Morning
As far as I am aware at the moment Copl have an agreement with FTI that Copl will receive Cuda's 27% revenue until Cuda is sold
Drill paid for with cash flow. Production expected to increase this month. Read the RNS. Should get an update on increase production at the end of the month.
×big
He said drill paid from internal revenue
But that means bog increase in shannon production which isn't there yet .
I don't think the accordian 20 mil can be included to pay for the 4 deep drills.
The senior lender has the option to fair market value of 5% on completion/ Termination of the loan.
By lending the 20 mil to drill significantly increases the cost of that 5% from 3.5mil now to 10 20mil after actual flowing oil .
So, is finance possible on terms only against the deep discovery, to fund the drill/JV? Separate to and as well asthe existing deal ?
He can't really opt to pay off the existing loan until the M/C is much higher.
I think he's got in a bit of apickle with money hence the skills of Nigel Little brought on board.