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lethal
Which rise COPL or Noob
:))
average volume per session
Mar 776m
/
Aug 912m
/
Sep 378m
/
Oct 166m (1.66m)------- for the first 14 sessions published on the real lse this month
Clear to see the massive drop off in volumes , attributed to the wonga's like Hardon hitting
the exits for safe easy profits at each level
:))
HFB we ll do well to get one of those :)
Noob at least HARDON not killing your rises anymore lol
:))
The trading the past few session on much much lower volumes , is very deja vu
to the two weeks (but higher volumes) just prior to suspension.
Brick wall rangebound, with an active seller but equally, an active buyer being a
tight wad , wanting those shares but not willing to chase the price up to get them.
agree with LB , finally nearing the exit, the numbers do not make sense across the entire
period, more warrants excised than just the 26p allocation and the uncertainty of the
Atomic ex owner held/dumped part/all , all add to a big fat ?
Only back traced to last summer and found the 0.15p warrants , how many others where
still outstanding who knows, bit late in the day to go do a full dredge but pretty confident
those probably amongst the extra 0.53m (53m pre-c) excised.
The bumming chums YA/rgo , also had around 1.55m (155m) allocated last year at 0.39p/39p
and they are not known, to hang on to anything they can make a profit on, for more than 30
seconds lol
perhaps they excised and dumped , within the billions churned from 0.6p down on the 17th
August
The RNA on Q3 results banged out on SEDAR/RNS news wires on 16/17th November 2020
with the practice ,they had earlier in the year to satisfy a return to market, would hope
this years are prompt and earlier than last year.
Could well be , for what ever reasons , he had geared his all , to trying to make sure the
market is CLEAN , in preparation for the lead up to those results being released.
perhaps a Carlsberg scenario coming up
Monday 1st November , in keeping with LB estimation , we start to rise slowly but a rise
Tuesday 2nd - MF update
Thursday 4th - Deeps results published
/
Friday 5th - FOMO on fire
Essar we have been summoned to Nigeria to finalise, updated license
/
Monday 8th - Q3 results published
/
Monday 15th Nigeria not only renewed on improved financial terms , Essar we will
commence drilling in December , using our own rigs that have now become available
IF only Carlsberg did COPL PR lol
:))
take it you mean 4m LB after all , something a bit fishy about 400m remaining
when we have 164m in issue LOL
:))
We all saw the forward selling since December , each and every tap of the well
Since the ball started rolling in December we have churned 41,270,000,000
share
In the old days they would put into RNA messages the ,,, has agreed ,,, orderly market
at a rate of 15-20% of daily volume, the modern day wonga's, hit the exit a lot quicker
say 30-40% of daily volume 12-16 Billion potential placing/warrants dumped already
during all the placings etc since Atomic announcement.
Some of the heavy days late February into March and the absolute blitz 17th August
suggest many of those days even higher, the 17th alone was around 50% of the entire
half month of August back in play
All guesswork , same with warrants more than the 32p/26p warrants already exicsed
since March 1.553 excised the 26p all converted would be 1.50b
So question marks remain over OTHER warrants excised v total 26p/w available , some
warrants last year issued at 0.15p and more at 0.39, they could also have been in the
excised mix and dumped from 0.6p down , on the 17th
Hadron TR1 had dumped most of its placing shares pre suspension, the rest very quickly
on return
The final question mark is the ex atomic owner , what did he do if anything ?
:))
Only way we will know is , the handbrake comes off, all done , or we get news
and breakout, without an immediate pull back from further QP dumpers.
:))
Still, thanks for looking HFB.
Yup that was my point chat pull wool over CUDA s eyes
Shaa
here's the whole thing , for those that can stay awake that long lol
:))
https://542357-1754095-raikfcquaxqncofqfm.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/CUDA_Initiating_Coverage_21012019_CORMARK.pdf
not really Shaa , took me 30 seconds to find it and a few minutes of copy and paste lol
:))
one figure of interest in amongst all the other guff and charts , was an estimated end of 2021
production figure of 2800bopd
If that was based on the upper level misc flooding started in Aprils ramp up , its a tasty figure to
play with, if it was with reference to the Cuda stated 30% at the time, that would indicate a total
rate of over 9000bopd target
but probably ref 2800 total and based on the lower level of flooding they where already implementing
as that would be double from the end of year production 2020 ?
but either way , CUDA clearly know exactly what is going on at operational and drilling levels, so zilch
reason for Arty to be rigged for silent running, should be surfacing the submarine and blowing all
the surface skimmer bar stewards and shorts our of the water
:))
Well as stated many times , zilch factored in for anything, just the lowest level of fag packet
the December deal was done as stated in the RNA message , $2.18 a barrel reserves when
the local rate npv10/rr was $7.52 and poo $39
By cuda's September report it had reserves at $10.50 with the poo $71.5, sould be higher
still with poo now over $80
The $10.50 rate from September , would give a value to sell on the original deal only of
£238m
That would be my , starting point, likewise taking MC of our peer group on the London
exchange , apply their MC to our share base gives £1.31 -£1.68p
Nothing more basic , than a target of joining your peer groups as you move up the
league table.
:))
Top work HFB.
Cuda has identified eight distinct landing zones with an initial focus on lower risk
vertical Shannon development and a few horizontal wells targeting the Frontier
and Dakota formations.
The Niobrara and Mowry shale considered the key source rocks with existing production
from the Teapot/Parkman, Sussex/Shannon, Niobrara, Frontier, Mowry, Muddy, and Dakota
Think all that and the above , clearly shows CUDA more than aware of what is on the land
including the deeps drill, Cuda have identified 8 zones.
:))
Cuda Oil and Gas
The key reason for investors to look at this name is for the Powder River Basin
asset in Wyoming.
This area has active drilling from many private/large E&P producers with expectations
for industry activity to pick up further in 2019.
The area is characterized by multiple development zones over a 750’ thick oil column
with high oil-cuts and low watercuts, resulting in very strong economics, especially as
the industry begins to focus on horizontal development with current frac completion
techniques.
The other attraction about the area is the plentiful takeaway capacity in the area with
the Casper and Guersney hubs providing access to Denver and Salt Lake City refineries
The heart of the play is in eastern Wyoming’s Campbell and Converse counties.
The majority of the recent focus with horizontal drilling has been the Turner zone with
EOG unveiling two additional targets in 2018 including the Mowry and Niobrara.
There are 14 different horizons that have existing production in the Powder River Basin
with horizontal well results upto 2,000 BOE/d range with high oil-cuts in most zones.
The largest landholders in the play are Anadarko, Anschutz, EOG, Devon, Chesapeake,
Samson, and Wold.
Upside to Deeper Horizons
Deeper potential targets include the Niobrara, Frontier 1/2/3, Mowry Shale, Muddy,
Dakota, and Lakota formations with approximately two or three horizontal wells
plannedin 2019 targeting the low hanging fruit in the Frontier formation.
With these wells costing $5-9 MM each dependent on Horizontal lateral length
(i.e., one-mile versus two-mile), the timing of these wells is more dependent on
cash flows.
However, nearby two-mile Frontier horizontal wells have initial rates 1,000-2,000
BOE/d with some nearby wells coming online in the 3-4 MBOE/d range.
The Cole Creek area has existing Frontier production from 18 wells making Frontier2
the likely first target for the first one to two horizontal wells.
Cuda also plans to drill a horizontal well in the Barron Flats Unit targeting Frontier1
with very successful Frontier 1 well results northeast of the company’s acreage.
The potential rates of these wells being 5-10x the rates of Shannon wells with wells
costing 5-6x more may meaningfully improve the capital efficiency, growth rate, and
running room for the company over time.
Miscible Gas Flood - Provides further opportunity
Once gas infrastructure and permits are in place, the potential for a gas flood
in the Shannon zone could increase production by two-fold to three-fold with
better economics than the already attractive primary drilling.
There is a successful gas flood in the Muddy zone in the Sand Dunes pool located
only six miles away from the BFU providing good analogous pool performance.
Given the undersaturated reservoir and rock qualities,the production response from
a miscible gas flood should begin to take place in less than two months,similar to
the analogous pool where production increased from 2.3 MBOE/d to 13 MBOE/d.
The application for the gas flood will be submitted in the coming 30 days approvals
expected in April/May. In the meantime, the completion of the gas plant and gathering
infrastructure will allow the company to begin a gas flood test prior to a larger scale
rollout following regulatory approval.
Investment Thesis
Since closing, Cuda has drilled 11 wells, bringing total well count to 26
producing wells, and field production north of 1,600 BOE/d (94% oil),450
BOE/d net to Cuda.
This production is primarily from the shallower Shannon formation in the
Barron Flats Unit where well costs are estimated to be $1.6 MM with initial
IP rates 180 BOE/d (96% oil) with an additional 70 remaining 160-acre locations.
Even within the Shannon zone itself, the company has identified an Upper and
Lower Shannon zone which has the potential to further improve well performance
and/or landing zones/inventory.
Three of the 11 recent wells have been completed with the Lower and Upper Shannon
zones commingled.
Two of these wells are outperforming the type-curve.
The company will have finished electrifying wells as well as completed building
its gas gathering and gas plant in the Barron Flats Unit in the coming few weeks,
which should further reduce operating costs and improve liquid recoveries
Large upside resides in the deeper horizontal target zones with two or three
horizontal wells planned in 2019
Extracts from CUDA's acquisiton via RTO in 2018 for $48m for then 30%
stake (CORMARK securities - brokers note)
CUDA Oil and Gas - Resource exposure to the oily Powder River Basin.
The Powder River Basin is an oil-rich basin with a proven thick oil column,
basin-wide rocks, and multiple stacked plays providing up to 14 productive
horizontal targets.
Additionally, the basin offers visible light oil, high netback drilling
opportunities with ample basin takeaway capacity and industry-wide activity
picking up, from most of the established companies in the area.
Cuda has a 30% non-operated working interest in the area providing exposure
to 12,500 net acres.
Current enterprise value, after deducting estimated PDP value, results in an
implied land value of $2,800/acre, in line with recent transactions in the area
which have been valued at US$2,500-$3,500/acre
suggesting the stock is only reflecting acreage value at these levels.
price $1.70, price target $4
With 11 recent vertical wells completed, two to three horizontal wells
planned, gas plant coming online in February and miscible flood planned for
June 2019
so a lot of ground covered since then, looks like our potential 14 layers
also currently being valued at above ACREAGE value lol
:))
RTO , Unloved and Undervalued , it like reading deja vu lol