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Welcome to therapy Guitar.
100 likes for “rdunc” post ... this site has gone beyond predictable... the presentation says everything ...
6%-7% RBL (numbers Art alluded to in presentation) would free up a lot of headroom and give us great stability, and release any shackles to ramp up production. Roll on Q3.
Same view here Mr Bob
I believe Cuda and a great Refinance package are pretty well nailed on.
The one issue still somewhat problematic is the mediocre production.
If and when Art gets this under control then we'll start to see Fair Value achieved.
Just my view
agree Dunc, enormous potential, be interesting to see how fast they move the production numbers up in the second half of this year, just a few boxes to tick off
1. CUDA sale finalised,
2. Re-Finance the loan-Hedging etc
3. Increase production from current wells
4. Drill Delination well on the Discovery
each stage should add an incremental value in the Sp, imo
GLA LTH Lots to look forward to
The selling today, in my opinion, is just the mechanics of trading. The share price was running hot off the buying pressure last week, look at the RSI and you can see it. Get in on anticipation, get out on news when the technicals top out. Interestingly, it has gone straight back to in to oversold territory. Again, in my opinion only, back in the buyers zone now.
I find it amusing how the opinions of some directly correlate to the SP. When it's overbought, sentiment is sky high, when it's oversold sentiment is rock bottom. Fundamentals haven't changed, yet opinion has. Can you not see the pattern of how traders execute entry and exits?! It is rather obvious with this share as it is has a large retail following that tend to be more emotive in decision making.
I'm not a big trader, don't have the time, so just an observation. I'm more than happy with yesterday's presentation and the evolving forward plan. The fundamentals will eventually shine through.
"people will hold for the next bounce point to buy in"
of course
but thats not the 5% traders like you I describe who bounce in and out constantly
LTH is for longer than 2 days to many, perhaps not to you though!
anyway whatever
Utter tosh. Traders trade between ranges, buy on speculation, sell on news. Last nights webinar did not tell us anything we didn’t already know. It will rise but not now, meanwhile in between we are open to traders doing their thing - you of all people should know that. Back ground selling continues also with the residue of the placing.. However, the fact that you sit at home watching the minute by minute trades - you are the expert!!
The Gambler
These are not the potentials but the key points made in the webinar by Art I noted at the time.
As to Irons point, I dont see a trader taking a long position of any note if COPL is in a sustained upward trajectory in due course, they will just move on to the next promising company to repeat their sell/buy 5% around a range, its what they do after all.
Each to their own
GLA
Another great breakdown of "the potentials" Tilburn however a very reasonable question by Iron as well.
Selling could be the trading community moving on as the weight of progress and forward momentum is going to be pretty much one way.
oil is found, has a route to market, RBL incoming to pay for drilling, tech approach established for successful extraction and RS confirming OIP any day
This has been traded to the hilt, but now the stability of the inexorable rising production promised is fast approaching - the pieces are in place or nearly so.
Reminder of key points , on very well done company marketing:
• Unsolicited approaches for offering credit
• Confidence in house to gain a good RBL deal - “Now is the time to do it - not next year”
• Incremental growth approach – Phase 1 drill delineation, consolidate, refinance, then Phase 2 drilling and so on
• No crude Oil Production facility now planned for upto two years – that was $16m capex as estimated - so deployed to drills perhaps.
• Frontier focus as cant co mingle Dakota
• Evaluation of the Discovery evolution in thought, COPL initially thought “This just cant be”
AM states, “Well, it is”
• Canadian cold weather Rig appears secured (is in Wyoming now) as well as Canadian crew, RNS on this in due course, critical acquisition – very interesting how quickly they can complete wells
• Risk is reduced with own rig as a lot of demand/logistics constraints - AM ahead of the curve
• Permits expedited for Frontier drills
• Drilling period implied from Sept – March – from existing drill pads to get round the Sage Grouse aspect, allows MF for Frontier using the in place and to be expanded facility means they go direct form Primary, no secondary water to tertiary MF directly – 40% recovery territory claimed
• No JV in near term – probably with a smaller partner when actioned – AM wants to remain operator
• CNOOC need to sell – have no interest in non-unit lands
• Strategy is – “accelerate and delineate”
Anyone Have and idea were all these chunky sales are coming from very depressing you would imagine at these levels buying would be more prevalent