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There seems to be a lot of interest in a return to mining in Australia so I expect we will benefit from such an interest. POW also seem to be moving into the Australian gold mining sector. We should see a lot of interest in COBR. over the coming weeks.
Well are we having a re rate at last
It’s worth noting why others may have held licensing back in the 1990s the average gold price was in $350 per oz range ( https://www.statista.com/statistics/274001/gold-price-per-ounce-since-1978/ )
We are now in the $1730-1765 range with prices forecasted could rise as high as $3000 per oz.
Copper is also at $2.83 per lbs or $5584.40 per ton so we are in an exceptional position we may also have take off agreements in place further down the line which helps with funding and securing the sale of these elements.
I am still personally of the opinion that this will be bought out before we get to that stage - GLA
Use $30 at lower confidence levels per oz so 2m is worth about £50m in the ground or 27p/share... I think we see at least 1m oz by the end of the year so 14p will be about right...
Sorry calculations were wrong! £34m in ground value so 11 times current market cap so roughly 17p (maybe!)
Sorry folks not meaning to spam the board but what I find encouraging about Cobra is Newcrest sold the tenements back in the 90’s. Exploration techniques have changed dramatically since then but obviously Newcrest thought there was potential at the sites way back then. They also sold it with a 1.5% NSR so they must have thought it will come good at some point and potentially generate income. Hopefully Cobra can unlock the value!
Difficult to say but gold price of £1,700 at 1% in ground value (very rough valuation obviously) gives SP of 34p with no dilution which will be inevitable to prove up the resource. Just goes to show the potential here though.
So what does 2m oz equates to? In terms of SP?
Gonna need 4Moz as only have 200K shares here. Always hopeful. GLA
Here’s hoping for 2m oz minimum then!
Very much a sleeping giant this below posts of from a few weeks back, we could also be factoring in other minerals such as copper etc so could go anywhere - GLA
Previous Posts on Figures - lots to play for on breakout26 May 2020 12:05
We just need the RNS confirming exactly whats in ground first stop will be 7.2-10.8p (3.6p 12 month high +100 to 200%)
MC of 10-15% of in ground resource
1 million OZ is currently $1765 I calculated costs at $765
That leaves $1k per oz even if we only retained 60% of the company the rest was offset for drilling and JV partner
That leaves us $600 per oz or approx £500 per oz
500 x 1 oz = £500m very easy maths from here (MC this morning is ruffly 5m so divide 5 by the below current MC then times the current SP – 3p I then factored this by 60% for the 100m shares warrants, why it may not be 100% accurate it gives you an idea)
1m oz - £500m (MC at 10% & 15% £50-75m) 30 – 45p / 60% -16.75% = 14.98p – 22.4p
(x6.24 – x9.3 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
2m oz - £1billion (MC at 10% & 15% £100-150m) 60p – 90p / 60% - 16.75% = 29.97p - 44.95p
(x12.4 – x18.7 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
3m oz - £1.5billion (MC at 10% & 15% £150-225m) 90p - £1.35 / 60% -16.75% = 44.9p – 67.4p
(x18.7 - x 28 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
4m oz - £2 billion (MC at 10% & 15% £200-300m) £1.20 - £1.80 / 60% - 16.75% = 59.94p – 89.9p
(x24.97 – x37.46 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
5m oz - £2.5 billion (MC at 10% & 15% £250-375m) £1.50 - £225 / 60% - 16.75% = 74.9p - £1.12
(x31.25 – x46.8 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
6m oz - £3 billion (MC at 10% & 15% £300-450m) £1.80 - £2.70 / 60% - 16.75% = 89.91p - £1.35
(x37.4 – x56.19 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
7m oz - £3.5 billion (MC at 10% & 15% £350-525m) £2.10 - £3.15 / 60% = £1.05 - £1.57
(x43.75 – x65.5 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
Buy Out
1m oz - £500 million (MC at 5% & 7% £25-35m) 15p – 21p / 60% - 16.75% = 7.5p – 10.5p
(x3.12 – x4.37 current value of holding)
2m oz - £1billion (MC at 5% & 7% £50-70m) 30p – 42 p / 60% - 16.75% = 14.98p – 20.97p
(x6.23 – x8.73 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
3m oz - £1.5billion (MC at 5% & 7% £75-105m) 45p – 63p / 60% - 16.75% = 22.47p – 31.46p
(x9.47 – x13.1 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
4m oz - £2 billion (MC at 5% & 7% £100-140m) 60p – 84p / 60% - 16.75% = 29.97p – 41.95p
(x12.4 – x17.47 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
5m oz - £2.5 billion (MC at 5% & 7% £125-175m) 75p - £1.05 / 60% - 16.75%= 37.46p – 52.44p
(x15.6 – x21.85 current value of holding @ 2.4p)
6m oz - £3 billion (MC at 5% & 7% £150-210m) 90p – 1.26 / 60% - 16.75% = 44.95p – 62.9p
(x18.72 – x26.2 current value of holding)
7m oz - £3.5 billion (MC at 5% & 7% £175-245m) £1.05 - £1.37 / 60% - 16.75% = 52.44p – 68.43p
(x21.85 – x28.47)
I factored in 100m warrents and 60% ownership without these you could double or treble those buy out figures
Having done further research, I think this could be a sleeping giant- It may not go up in a straight line but over the coming months it could explode. I would recommend reading the CPR report compiled by SRK on the company's website.