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Volume is looking a bit better atm
Rach, not gonna go into it more, I'm glad you found some more perspectives to explore from my post, but please be careful with things like "market put SP back to where it was, so it can't be good"
Because then you'd also have to say Pensana must be horrible, with SP going from 185 in March 2021 to 25 now.
As far as I'm concerned both have their merits, personally I'm interested in the province scale, ISR-suitable, heavy rare earths enriched deposit in a prime jurisdiction that Boland shapes up to potentially (!) be, with a board that holds 30% of shares and raised at a premium last time they raised. But that's personal preference, what is clear is that these two are hugely different, if you look for NdPr (which has a much more challenging outlook than Tb and Dy reading any REE focused news) and don't mind a high risk jurisdiction, or rather if you're okay with these factors for higher overall MREO grades (although also important to keep in mind that extraction likely will be much more expensive for Pensana), then I wish you good luck with your investment there, I can see it go well too, but for me for many reasons I wrote about at length, Cobra is the superior play, in particular with less than a tenth of the market cap, and with the similarities Boland has to MEI's REE resource (which is valued at 250m£)
Spot on Jolifant, I know who I trust the most with my investment here
It's glaringly obvious that RachT has suddenly surfaced here to ramp his investment in Pensana. Part of that is to de ramp Cobr in the hope investors may switch from here to there. I suspect that he has lost a good sum of money recently in Pensana as their sp has dropped like a stone in the last calendar year and he is rather bitter. As soon as you see the volatile countries Pensana are operating in then you will understand the sp drop.
As regards Cobr you have to believe the geologists Clarke and Verco when they say the results are sensational. There are rules in place and nomads appointed to deter false claims being made in an RNS. Law suits would follow against parties making untrue statements and perhaps RachT should be more careful before calling RV disingenuous.
At the end of the day who do you trust? The geologists on the ground with years of experience and expertise or a new poster who has popped up from nowhere with an agenda?
Numpty & amateur investor am I? How flattering, but such comments are very misguided. Any research I've done took a little over an hour so you're nearly correct in that regard. However, even that short time was enough to convince me that this is an investment with a poor chance of being a good investment at this stage and even if it is successful it won't be producing for 5 - 10 years yet. I had little knowledge of Pensana before Monday but my > 1hour research means I see that they are starting construction and see that they are one of the largest undeveloped RE mines and one of only 3 worldwide with JORC reserve greater than 100k tonnes of NdPr. COBR has many many expensive hoops to jump through before it even gets close to that stage - numerous dilutive fund raises ahead for anyone already aboard.
The market clearly agrees that the company's latest news is sensational, the SP is back to where it was before the news broke - strange that.
SWS - thank you for your post, it has provided me more info to consider. Certainly one I'll be watching.
Good luck to holders.
And SWS, adding to that, if you do the maths from the recent RNS then Boland is between somewhere between 450-900 Million Metric Tons at that TREO; which is massive!
Given the numpties that have suddenly shown an interest in Cobra, Comeoverhere for the ramp and now RachT for the de-ramp it’s probably a sign that Cobra is now successfully getting its message out.
Whether long term investors will benefit from that success I’m not so sure unless willing to trade the news.
The problem with your approach, Rach, is that you don't differentiate one bit between heavy rare earth and light rare earths. First things first, nobody says Pensana doesn't have nice grades, it also has over 10x Cobra's market cap btw...
Second things second, for Cobra's Boland drill results, of the MREO (and really that's what we look at, cause the others, well, Cerium Oxide and Lanthanum Oxide have a price less than 1/500th of Terbium Oxide, so who cares about the parts of TREO that aren't MREO?), 12% are Tb and Dy, 88% are Nd and Pr, that's the ppm split. The value split using current prices of the REOs, 47% of the basket value are Tb and Dy, even though they're only 12% of the MREO in ppm. For your guide, current prices are 760$/kg for Tb-Oxide, 253.5$/kg for Dy-Oxide, 50$/kg for Nd-Oxide, 53.5$/kg for Pr-Oxide.
Then you have to take into account the resource style and recoverability, if you even looked at the most recent presentation, you have the hard numbers how much more profit margin ISR produces at massively lower grades.
Then you have the jurisdiction, if you looked into it, you know at what discounts African miners trade to Tier 1 jurisdiction ones.
Then you have recovery % in the leeching process, the high 60-70% recovery rates at Boland are outstanding compared to pretty much all metrics for IAC-style deposits out there.
Even if we assume the same recovery % for e.g. MEI, which also is an IAC-style deposit and much more directly comparable, the basket value of MEI's resource is at most 2x higher than Boland average (across all zones, and in reality recovery % is lower at MEI). Then you have MEI in a somewhat dodgy mining jurisdiction, Brazil hasn't been great there, look at other UK-listed miners in Brazil like Serabi or Harvest Minerals, complete mess. And yet you have MEI at a market cap of 250m£ equivalent. So you're definitely missing some things here, the biggest ones being 1) the vast premium of heavy rare earths over light rare earths in market price, and the vaster premium of magnet rare earths over other rare earths (we're talking x50 premium of LREO and x500 premium of HREO over the others, making any talk about TREO completely obsolete, the ones that aren't MREO create zero value), 2) the jurisdiction the project resides in, 3) metallurgy, recovery grades, as important if not more important than the MREO %, what's the point of looking only at MREO %, when 1 has recovery rates of 70% of them and the other has 35% of them?
What does make this world-class, isn't the grades in themselves, but the combination of Tier 1 jurisdiction, very high recovery rates, the potential for very very low-cost extraction if ISR will really be possible, very decent concentration of HREO as part of MREO, and economic MREO grades (even if not the MREO grades that some others have, who lack the ISR potential and the high recovery rates, and the high HREO content, which yeah, is x10 the market price of LREOs, and the prime juri
Amateur investors do one hours research and think they know it all!
RachT your brief research is very disingenuous. You are comparing apples to pears as pointed out by Richyrich. What Cobra has is unique
RachT…
Is Pensana rare earths contained within hard rock or clays?
Open pit mining or using ISR?
Is the deposit/operation within a politically stable country?
Environmentally friendly means of production with little environmental impact for extraction?
Potential province scale?
Do they have a gold resource?
Do they hold potential IOCG deposits within their tenements?
Hopefully Cobra can convince and prove to the market that their strategy can be as much of a game changer for rare earths as it was for uranium when producers starting to implement ISR tech for uranium production.
Time will tell!
You missed the gold in your brief research Rach.
'Seems peculiar that your first post is a negative one' - I'll explain. I had no interest in COBR until I saw the huge rise in SP on Monday - then I did some research and didn't like what I found. This board is by far the busiest for COBR so where better to post? Anyway, my brief research showed that the team at COBR are talking up their worth and their claims of 'sensational' and 'world class' are very disengenious. I cannot contradict the details in post I copied from advfn - which shows that COBR has only 0.1196% TREO on its patch. Contrast that with Pensana that has VASTLY more on its Longonjo patch. There the site is split into 2 areas - a weathered surface area (easily accessible) and a fresh rock layer beneath. Drilling on Longonjo has gone down to 80m and found REO all the way down - COBR recorded their 8m deep find as sensational. The entire area of Longonjo has an inferred mineral resource of 313 million tons at 1.43% TREO including 0.32% NdPr - that's 12x the concentration that COBR has. The weathered area is even better - that has 39.9 million tons at 2.38% TREO including 0.52% NdPr - that's nearly 20X the concentration that COBR claims to be sensational.
No wonder COBR's SP is disappointing - it's all built on bluff and extremely disengenious statements.
It's gone back down to the placing price. Always the same. Placing shares rarely in sticky hands, any rise and they are out!
What a dog I’m in can’t believe it’s got this bloody bad
Great rns but it’s not gone well since
Oh well, that rise didn’t last long!
Guess the market is not quite convinced of the project yet. Hopefully that will change over the next few months but given the ADVFN post there’s obviously disgruntled investors/non believers following Cobra!
I'm a mug then ...lol
Listening to RV on the Sunday Roast yesterday as soon as I heard him say 16-18months I figured many that would consider buying in, or at least that have now put COBR on the radar won't be rushing to buy, unless there's a general market uplift that everyone's being saying is coming - for the last few years.
SO I think we will remain roughly around here for a little while longer - good if you're stake building ofc.
Seems peculiar that your first post is a negative one...maybe you need to check out RV latest presentations for actual comparisons.
As for the title of 1p being about right...I think given our current portfolio we should be at around 2p min. Anywhoo I'm sure the more geotechnically advanced posters on here will be more than happy to share their opinions on grades and percentages... as technical side is a bit much for me.
Copied from advfn
I see that COBR is up some 40% today - all on the back of its usual tactic to attempt to confuse and mislead gullible investors. Of the results released today the CEO states - "These results are sensational! It is pleasing to see our value proposition materialise, and these results, coupled with the excellent metallurgical recoveries achieved last year, demonstrate Boland is not only unique but world class.''
Er, no it isn't.
He also states -
'Whilst the Brazilian ionic rare earth projects have captured market interest, our results are comparable in grade, scale and metallurgy.......'
Er, no they aren't.
COBR was set up as a gold explorer / miner but when it couldn't find any economically viable gold on its plot (must be a great team) it decided to see what else might be there. Hence they joined the REE bandwagon and tried to convince folks that it was a rare earth junior instead. It then set about creating an image of itself that might impress gullible investors.
As for the results being sensational - that's very disengenious. So the average ppm of TREO for all 3 zones is 1196ppm. Why not express that as a percentage? Well as a percentage it really doesn't look very good at all - only 0.1196%. As a comparison Rainbow has 0.43% at Phalaborwa. Compare that to 2 existing producers (Lynas Mt. Weld and MP Materials' Mountain Pass) who have 6 - 8% grades and Brazilian Rare Earths' recent drill results of 18.8% TREO. Admittedly these 3 are in hard rock so more difficult to process than the gypsum dumps and soft clay of RBW and COBR. The chart below illustrates this very well - the blue section represents TREO concentrations and black sections illustrate the respective concentrations of the most sought after REE, that is Nd and Pr. As one can see COBR's figures would hardly be visible on the same chart - unfortunately chart does not copy but can be viewed by searching Innovation News network under title - Brazilian Rare Earths: A paradigm shift
Thanks Shipwreck for the link much appreciated!
Do let us know what you calculate over the weekend!!
Correction again - 55% LREO, 45% HREO in $value (sorry, I'm tired).
So a very high HREO content.
Correction - 65% LREO, 35% HREO in $value.
I believe RV holds about 866k shares in total, and I agree he probably has no chance to buy more in the current news rich environment.
Interestingly, from my calculations, the HREO and LREO are worth approximately 65/35 of the total value of Boland, respectively (SWS—I will be interested to see how your calculations compare). I think the important thing is that since ISR mining works from the bottom up, the unusually high 35% HREO value will be largely realized first.
I'm pretty sure Rupert holds more than 333k shares, Kuro. It was 333k shares in the Oct 2022 placing & 500k shares in the Nov 2023 placing that was at a premium to the share price at the time. See here: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/COBR/result-of-accelerated-bookbuild-206pe5ciab1f0ew.html
I imagine it's impossible at the moment to buy for him with how rules for director buying work, there's lots of news flow in the next months indicated with the re-analysis of historic drill samples, the uranium side story, and who knows what kind of insight they already have in addition to what we know so far on ISR recoverability and/or offtake agreement perspective and/or attracting strategic institutional investors and/or any potential discussions about monetizing the gold assets, almost certain that any information on any of these fronts would make it impossible to purchase additional shares right now.
Also with 3 related parties (one of which is of course David Clarke) holding 30% of Cobra, and another 7% of shares held by Andromeda Metals, that's a lot of tightly held shares. So are my 3%+ that you also see in the major shareholders list on the website, I'd love to be able to buy more, but unfortunately am not allowed to buy any new single-name shares for the time being; however, sure as hell not selling any, and hard for me to understand why people aren't gobbling these up left right and centre at a market cap of 8m£.
Anyway, I plan to do some calcs on the weekend trying to replicate the slide in Rupert's presentation that shows heavy rare earths in the basket to be superior to what MEI have, because these are the most valuable by far, and also the outlook for Dysprosium and Terbium is much better than for light rare earths (see for instance the article on the right side here: https://www.metal.com/Rare-Earth-Oxides ). For me that slide really drives it home that it isn't about the TREO grades, MEI have grades around 3x of Boland, and yet in terms of basket value, as HREO are so much more valuable, they aren't far from each other. With MEI's market cap at some 250m£, and COBR's market cap at 8m£, that's well...a big difference. Too big? Yep, way too big a difference as far as I'm concerned. Have to say there were times when I questioned the decisions by management, I can't say I've been a huge fan initially of how the plan to drill the Thompson exploration target was scrapped very abruptly and Boland was drilled instead last year, but they've done everything right really by the looks of things and I gotta say the confidence they have on the drilling/mineralogy front (confidence that is built on huge experience for all David Clarke, Rupert Verco, and of course also Robert as exploration manager, also with ISR) gives me huge confidence in the company. Which is why I have increased my holding to > 3% in the first place.