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One thing I meant to mention about last weeks interview with MC, was that it was conducted by Hannam and Partners.. It would be interesting to see them produce a research note on CNR this year, hope its on the way.
Gold at 1783 this morning - up $100 after the nice bounce off 1680 right enough.. looking like its bottomed for now.. a lot of producing gold miners are looking cheap at these prices!
Pat ,just added some of both last week ,plus a few aaz yesterday . Hum as a bigger gamble maybe . Still adding omi ,not an producer but 2 majors now doing all the explo .buy under 25 p imo dyor tho . I think some early stage explorers like wsbn,palm and cobr too .I think copper and lithium are both worth a bit of exposure . Going to be adding equinox soon . Happy hunting ,or hand sitting .
I agree tester. Can't see any short term catalyst. I remember listening back to the share talk chat back in Feb and Mark suggesting a potential re-rate once we have a processing plant/mill confirmed. I know the sag mill is just one part but look what that has done to the shareprice, nothing.
I can see further delays. I'm not selling any, willing to wait that bit longer.
Connect1 - yes ideally a 40koz pa Toll Mill deal announced before the election worries kick in around sep/oct! Then sell some off on a spike and come back when hopefully the country is still settled next April/May for a new ISA season..
I just feel that the message is constantly changing here - last month it was "12 months construction period from when all the equipment is in country" then on monday its now - "oh no hang on, going to take a lot longer than that actually as its nicaragua.. - so probably 2023 till first production" I was expecting end of Q2/Q3 2022..
Will come back when its all a bit closer tbh - in the meantime PoG is taking off like a rocket and CNR not moving as they cant make a penny during this period of high gold prices.. despite being permitted for 2 years to do so.. its insane.. Gold price could be 2500 by end of the year and CNR still cant profit from it - the local artisanal miners on the other hand will be raking it in ,drinking CNR provided crystal clear cool water and holding out for their big pay day to buy penthouses in Managua..
Not risking any more here until there is some clarity on both country direction and the construction costs/plans..
Tester As far as I recall there was nothing material in the World Forum Q&A that we didn’t already know. Indeed anything material would need to be in an RNS. So can you highlight what it was in that presentation that caused you to think twice? We must not forget the possibility of a bid which increases as we approach production and the gold price rises.
Lucky/well done to you ‘Wurz1’, I envy you to be able to do so I’m still five figures down if I sell, even after a decade unbelievable stupidity in my part! If I was in your position I’d probably do the same, the only hope is toll milling and I don’t think that will happen (more than happy to be wrong and pay my bet though)!
I have to say, having listened to the Q+A, it has definitely made me think twice about investing any more here at present. Im happy to keep my holding at current levels, but I want to wait until probably next year after the Nic elections (hopefully passing without incident) until I add anything extra. By that time, a decision should have been made on construction finance, and updated FS study figures released as well. Might even have something defined on Cacao by then too.
Its all taking far too long to make progress towards generating even minimum levels of cashflow. The local miners make more money at La India than CNR do, $4B dollars of gold in the ground and they cant sell any for at least 2-3 years without a toll mill deal.. After 12 years, its not good enough..
There are better places for my investments over the next two years than here I'm afraid, and I think others probably agree after that presentation.. Plus again, I am concerned that gold is heading for a real bull run and producers and near term producers (i.e nearer term than CNR) will benefit more fully.. And better diversification of a portfolio is never a bad thing imho..
Need the last 5% land purchase to give 100% ownership which is a condition of the Environmental Permit, and needs to be done by end of July. This project will not be (in the company’s words) significantly de-risked until all conditions are met.
Just got around to watching this (my personal and professional lives are taking up a lot of my time and energy at the moment!)
I'm not going to take half-an-hour to respond to every one of rr's points, but just some thoughts of my own that you are naturally free to take on board or dismiss entirely!
The PFS and the Capex number within is now virtually irrelevent. It's old and I imagine was always a fairly rough guess in the grand scheme of things. I think MC said that a PFS is done to within 25% either way, so that's a lot of room for leeway. So not much value to be had trying to work backwards from that PFS number to establish how much CapEx is left.
It sounds to me like this is one of the items with the longest lead time. Wanting value for money is fair enough, but I think the priority has to be on getting to production as quickly as possible. Bringing forward production by, let's say for the sake of argument, 6 months, is probably not worth trying to save every single penny on the up-front cost.
A few weeks ago, someone was talking about wanting the next raise to be at above-market prices, which at the time I shot down as being unrealistic. Well, that's exactly what we had with the shares issues to First Majestic! To then complain that First Majestic are getting a great deal as the shares should be worth a lot more is a little unreasonable IMV.
I'm inclined to take MC's word on the land issue. It's right and proper to not fork out more of the company's (our) money than necessary. The government will be forced to get involved at some point if there's a stalemate, as the mine may not go ahead without it, and they want the mine up and running almost as much as we do.
Timelines are perhaps purposely and unavoidably hazy, but better to not commit than to commit and miss. It was never going to happen overnight.
Finance doesn't concern me. That's his field. He'll get the best deal that can be got.
I am another long termer and similarly at these levels have little return for 10 years of investment. I believe another good 2 years until they will produce. However, they are now substantially derisked and they will re-rate before then - possibly a lot earlier if serious bids start to appear to buy the company.
nobody is poised holding a position for 11 years .. i bought and sold CNR several times and made good money on it... currently the stock is very undervalued and will sit and wait until 100% of the land is bought ... its a low-cost operation and the gold will not go anywere ... just sit back and wait
Realranger - What a magnanimous reply. After 11 years of holding, you're entitled to a frustrated observation, but equally correct post from ICB - watch the presentation and decide for yourself. I'm very positive that this share will deliver - but agree that it might be another couple of years before it does so
Sorry it came across negative but I tried to keep it balanced.
After all 11years here and possibly another 2 (best case) until production and possibly any return on investment = 13years of capitol tied up (no inflation) and I'm still slightly in the red, not a great investment in hindsight.
If joining just now I would be much more positive I'm sure and Condor is a wonderful overall investment case, especially as we are now finding out just how good the gold grades are.
All in my opinion as you say, glad you have yours as that's what makes this board balanced.
RR It satisfied with your negative post last night you decided to have another go this morning ending with “All the above are facts”. A very misleading statement as most of the post is your opinion and your interpretation of facts. Very few of the things you have mentioned were included in the presentation. I suggest people listen for themselves and make their own mind up as to whether the negative slant you have put on everything is justified.