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Let's just hope AIM starts to realise the true value of junior producers. Or as you say erdles, some nice dividends further down the line. I'm more than happy with going dpw the route of production, it might take some time to see real value but I think we'll steadily climb. I'd be surprised to see £1 this year to be honest. I'd love to be proven wrong though.
For what its worth I think we are going into production, why else would Randy Martin be on board? There is £2billion in free cash flow for CNR over the next seven years through this route, any other option pales in comparison. For example a £2 per share buy out is only worth a seventh of this amount. I for one can wait for my dividends thank you very much.
Yes Nero, that's what I meant. Cheers for clarifying.
CF I think you mean far *more* undervalued than mako!
Yv00 there is mako who are pretty much about to start producing in Q4 this year. They are fully funded for their mine but have further potential to increase their annual production in the next few years.
Hemco run the bonanza mine in the North-East of the country. Calibre have some JVs with IAMGOLD and I think hemco but can't remember off the top of my head. Will have to check. Other than that, I don't know of any.
We are far less undervalued than mako so it would make sense for rio to target us but that's only my thoughts.
Jim and Ross have not become billionaires by giving away resources at critical stages of mine development. Therefore to get there attention/ shares the offer will have to seriously north of £2 I think. Otherwise they will wait and go into production and keep the profit.
A JV May be more palatable
Theres a lot of talk about RIO eyeing us up, however I'm curious if anybody knows of any other explorers/producers in Nicaragua with a similar or greater resource (assuming we use 1m oz as the benchmark). Appreciate there is scope for up to 5m oz but for now its around 1m oz and thats what any takeover valuation will be based on.
I'm trying to understand if we are a standout target in Nic or if we there are others that have an equally large resource with further potential that would also catch RIOs's eye.
Personally, I want to see production but a takeover within the next 12 months for a few multiples of todays price would need serious consideration.
I should think Rio would rather pay a bit extra for a fully de-risked project. What is an extra £100 million when the profit could run in to billions of dollars.
You could say pure gold are in a safer jurisdiction than condor but at the same time you could say it can't be that bad in rio tinto are getting involved with calibre and the govt are pro mining.
tbh I can't really understand why Rio Tinto aren't just diving in and snapping us up now before too much progress is made i.e. complete land purchases, securing plant, closer / into production, drilling and expanded resource. As progress on each of these continues to be made CNR's value (and cost) must be increasing. (Though maybe a few tens of millions of $ don't matter so much to Rio Tinto?)
They've committed to Nic so why not consolidate and build on that commitment? Adding CNR, La India and all that entails would be a significant addition to their Nic portfolio and operations, and complementary to what they've already got.
Perhaps they're just waiting for a final essential element of de-risking to be completed before taking the plunge, which maybe is completion of land purchases. Perhaps that's why the fund raise was done now - to get the whole land package in the bag which will prime CNR for expedited progress to production, and increase takeoverability?! I imagine RT recognise CNR's history and relations with communities, local govt etc is fastest route to complete that essential stage.
Just a few sunday morning thoughts / hopes! GLA
You only need to check the market cap of Pure Gold Mining (£260m and not producing until December) to see that £1.20 is not attractive to long term holders. £2.4 is more like. It takes just two weeks for Rio Tinto to earn that amount.
Some great thoughts and opinions as always by the members in here, looking at potential options and plans. However with regards to a sale price of £1 - to £1.20 as a takeover would be a bitter pill for most LTH’s here, myself included taking into a account all that’s been achieved and the district potential. ATB & GLA.
Although production is still the riskier option (due to issues that can occur along the way), the value that can be attained once we are producing is mind blowing.
A takeover now at maybe £1 - £1.20 would be a cheap shot. Yes most would accept it but there genuinely is the possibilty here to multiply our market cap 5+ fold from here within 36-48months if all the ducks line up.
I cannot see a take over being imminent otherwise the placement would not have taken place. Following the placement and take up of warrants we will have 116M shares issued, an increase of 22%. Surely you wouldn’t do this if a take over is on the cards. I am certain we are going full steam to production with the Nicaraguan Milling Company’s Randy Martin collaboration. Randy has years of experience in Nicaragua and developed Hemco. His expertise will have been called upon to find a suitable 2nd hand plant and he will be guiding Mark over the coming months. Just my opinion.
Good read re Nicaraguan Milling Company:
https://www.mining.com/condor-gold-attracts-new-investment-in-nicaragua/
I'm probably way off, but I've been thinking about this recent raise. Maybe it was needed this soon for the land purchases as Mark has mentioned he's been buying more land and maybe we were low on cash.
My other thought is that maybe a deal is being done for calibre/rio to buy us out and as part of that deal, we need to get everything in place regarding accelerating land purchases etc. It wouldn't be a good move for another company to come in part way through negotiating land purchases considering all the work we've done in the local communities.
With the talks with calibre about a toll deal, we must be strongly on their radar, surely they know that we've got and how profitable we'll be.
Or, Mark is saying to calibre, look, we've got cash now, we can go this alone, we can get our own processing plant etc. Put an offer in before it's too late.
Equinox have just raised $145m as well. I'm not sure if we are on their radar but surely with Ross beaty, that could be another outside shot?