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Yes high grading Mestiza with Mako would make a lot of sense and if we you reckon it could be 30k ounzes a year that would be a huge payback for Condor to cover the equity needs. If $1200 net after costs and splitting would still be £18m. Just need to crack on and negotiate a deal as time waits for no one but have an opportunity to head off dilution right in front of us with some redrawing of the split to make if happen.
Seingred, agree mako looks overvalued. They would definitely benefit from a toll with us. They have 2 x 500tpd ball Mills but only using one at present, averaging something like 476tpd. Now, if we used the other 500tpd ball mill and sent the ore from mestiza at around 5.36g/t, we could process something like 15,000 oz in 6 months. With grade being higher, think I've worked out the aisc would be somewhere in the region of $640.
good post c f. you estimate figures similar to mine.I reckoned on 15 maybe 20 m shares soon at around 35 p. 230 m shares with 40 p cent dilution,could possibly be 250 m . A toll deal would certainly change the economics and give the share price a lift before funding however if funding is pencilled in for 6 months time I dont see toll deal being struck and up and ready avoiding further dilution but could reduce it . one thing to bare in mind is the rising fuel and re agent prices. aisc rises are just starting to show through and will deteriorate as a result , so a rise in gold price is needed going forward.
The gold price is the joker in the pack. I agree, once in production we could be looking at £200m m cap Mako sounds a bit overvalued at £150 m compared to calibre to me . The quicker we are producing gold the better inc toll if it is a possibility. we see some outlandish predictions of $5k gold along with $500k bitcoin . personally would love both of those and anything is possible which is why we speculate. I m top heavy now in miners , particularly goldies but more in producers now. managed to get into poly pretty much at the recent bottom.
I am sticking with your first scenario, so hopefully there is room for pleasant surprises rather than unpleasant ones. may stick some ponzi profit in here a bit further down the line. the chance of cnr being sold sub £1are pretty non existent so 40p-£1/ is not a bad gambe to me from here .Anything above would be a bonus.
CF, interesting post ...and I do agree it would need to be the "deal of the century" but what you definitely demonstrate is how a toll deal would be best for shareholders to minimise dilution.
The re-mention of a possible toll milling agreement with either Calibre or Mako has sparked my interest again in looking at the numbers. This is very basic and I am comparing us to Calibre's current market cap. I am using post tax FCF for one years production.
Calibre post tax FCF $89m.
Condors potential post tax FCF at gold price $1800 for 100,000 oz would give $68m.
The difference between those 2 numbers would be roughly 0.75. 0.75 x Calibres current market cap works out at £255m. Take off Calibre's cash would give £200m. Yes, we would have some debt of £43m if we have a debt of 60% of the $100m upfront capex. Mako are valued at £150m with only roughly 50,000oz and I think $80m debt (don't quote me on this debt, it's a bit unclear looking at their financials). Mako only had $1.7m in cash end of June and have had to agree a $8m gold link loan in August to cover the interest that it couldn't pay.
I'm going to roughly say I think Condor could be valued at £200m once in production based on Calibre and Mako's current market caps.
Now, we have 135m shares at present. Lets say we raise £5m to get us through to Q1 2022 at 40p per share, that would add around 12m shares, so lets say we have 150m shares issued.
If we raise £30m for the equity at 40p, that would add 80m shares which would give us 230m shares in issue. That would equate to 87p per share.
If Mark pulled off the deal of the century and agreed a toll, we could toll the ore from mestiza to Calibre which could cover the majority (possibly all depending upon how much can be trucked to La Libertad) of the equity we need to raise. With 150m shares in issue, that would give us £1.30 a share with the same market cap at £200m.
John, our new CFO joined from Calibre. His knowledge of Calibre is second to none. He has 750,000 options at around 46p. If John takes up them all, they would be worth £645k at 86p or £975k at £1.30.
I would be happy with a share price around £1.30. Is the above possible? Maybe more shares will be issued than 150m even with a toll (the above is a "best ever case scenario" which may be a dream). Now that is something to ponder.