Tim Watts, CFO at Shield Therapeutics #STX presenting at our Life Sciences Investor Briefing Watch Now
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As i understand RothRock Condor was and potentially still is under NDA and where Condor provided rock samples. Therefore there was discussions being had. I suspect the Calibre intervention has rather stolen some thunder but i guess Calibre will be taking over a loss making mine and will either pull rabbits out of the hat to change that or if they are under pressure from shareholders and bond holders to keep up repayments Calibre might well look to bus in some ore. we will wait and see but i agree that toll mining with Calibre is less likely than perhaps it might have seemed 6 months ago with B2Gold. I do think Randy is not exactly a silent shareholder so he will be pivotal to assisting Condor realise some of their toll options and probably play a major part in the mine build. He was a very good strategic investor and i think there is a lot more to come. to have some of the worlds best investors on board shows MC is highly credible. Ross and Jim all invested in the last round to keep their same investment holding. I think MC is doing a fair strategy in that he could go and get full funding for the mine but at an big dilution. He is first exploring options to bring Condor into a fair valuation before doing that and looking for early cashflow. the feeder pits must get permitted and i suspect they are pivotal to any toll deal but securing that will improve the stock. The land acquisition completion will also be a pivotal moment as you cant announce any mine plan until we know all land is owned. Personally i can only see positive news coming our way as at this price Condor is priced to fail and Gold is hardly going to fall as it looks the world is becoming more destabilised by the day and the value of global currencies are almost the emperors new clothes with printing presses going non stop for 8 years pumping cash into the banks. sure there is disappointment we are not further or had any big breaks so far but it is not that we are standing still either. Condor is still on the slow boat to production. If MC can get the valuation to where it should be today, maybe £50m then it makes it more likely a buyer might convince its shareholders £100m is a good deal pre production. We know post mine build the company would be probably 5 times this valuation based on its AISC of $700 and the mine would pay back the purchase in 5 years. With a district of probably may more than 5m this mine will go for decades so its a long-term play in a mining friendly country.
RR yr on the money as time rolls on the more Apparent it is mc talks lorry loads of pony
Its a lot easier to permit an already producing mine fyi. Spoken to key insiders and the words were "dont count on any type of combination". While MC is in the dark in lala land thinking he can get a toll deal. I really believed him nearly a year ago when he mentioned possible tolling, but for him to continue to mislead investors now re tollmining is garbage. Calibre has NO interest. Normally CEOs dont release this type of information to the public until there is something definitive. That's the normal practice. In this case the point was to try to PUMP share price which failed miserably. the constant mention of 5m oz district again misleading. Do it dont say it. Calibre said they will be patient with any M&A. It means the same as what Clive Johnson said "NO CRAZY PREMIUMS".
ELion - B2 sold their mines because they've been told to divest Nica assets to prepare for a takeover/merger. My guess is an anglogold type or another mid tier combo. Insiders agree with me on it. Within the Canadian mining circle MC has a bad rep thats all i can say. People dont want to deal with him. He's been trying to extract the highest price for this asset with no success bc he cant let go and too unrealistic. I waited patiently for the permit of the mine only to see the stock do nothing and then IFC sells out. Gold price already moved ! CNR barely moved. Only Jim Mellon buying - nobody else. Something obviously going on behind the scenes. Said this many times MC isnt going to build this mine. 24 months to production is misleading again by the CEO.
My own assessment of situation: Only way moving forward is massive dilution, maybe hope that Calibre fails in their big drill program only then they might come to the table for toll mining, or hope the gold price goes to the moon. dont like the options. A coupe was attempted and turmoil created. these things happen - just have to live with it and cut loss sometimes. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. I'll Live with it.
Does anybody know if RANDY MARTIN has the capacity source for toll mining in the area? I was hoping MC would mention something in relation to the new shareholder, but nothing.
Just in addition, I found this B2 report on La Libertad from March 2015:
"The mining permit for Jabali Antenna is expected to be granted in the second quarter of 2015"... oops! Permits can be a tricky business as we all know.
Awax, I did glance through the calibre presentation. The part that stood out to me was that on page 11 they claim they can bring down El Limon's AISC from US$1567 to US$645... err, wow! That's a remarkable achievement, I wonder how they plan on doing that exactly, especially considering that in October last year, B2Gold conducted a life of mine study for El Limon concluding that it would cost $35m to extend El Limon’s life-of-mine to 21 years, bringing AISC down to US$900 per oz (excluding capital costs):
This study includes the El Limon central zone discovery (5.13m tonnes @ 4.92gpt = 812,000oz), so I'm not sure where Calibre are getting such optimistic figures from... Also, has the pit even been permitted? What about Jabali Antenna? I'm not up to date with these, but this article from April this year reckons "Production from the new Jabali Antenna pit is expected to start in the second half of 2019, subject to the successful completion of B2Gold’s resettlement activities and receipt of the Jabali Antenna openpit permit":
We all know how long the permitting process can take in Nic. Now I suppose it's possible that Calibre can achieve everything they are promising but it looks crazy optimistic to me. Naturally I wish them luck, and hope that Condor and Calibre can work together for mutual benefit and to benefit the people of Nicaragua.
Good points nero…...as I posted, I think that Calibre have paid over the odds at this stage for El Limon/La Libertad. They have much drilling to do and quite some time before they can bring these mills to an attractive AISC. Don't know whether you have looked at the presentation from the gold show, but I think his slide/numbers have been pencilled in by a numbers man to sell this to his shareholders. Much of course depends on how the price of Au moves in coming year.
Agreed EL, I was a little surprised that despite recently sounding bullish on condor, RR suddenly decides to dump half his shares, yet nothing has fundamentally changed during that time. My initial thought was that simply he bought in hoping for a re-rate based on a quick toll deal, and perhaps since that hasn't materialised as quickly as he liked it was time to move on. Fair enough.
Even if what RR says is true and Calibre plan to spend even more cash with a huge drill program, it will still be years of exploration and permitting before even a piece of that ore can be fed into El Limon or La Libertad, and until then those mines are losing money. The real question is, why wouldn't Calibre agree to a toll mining deal? If they think to acquire Condor in a distressed sale then surely that ship has sailed, Condor has access to financing that have kept it afloat throughout the entirety of this bear market when many other gold explorers have folded, and not only have Condor survived but have managed to expand and derisk the project significantly. It seems irrational that Calibre would be that malicious or foolish for no real benefit.
Whilst either of these mines have capacity, it seems mutually beneficial for Condor and Calibre to agree a toll mining deal. But regardless of that, progress on building the mine at La India will continue. MC might not be a big name in the gold community but he has serious players backing him, not least of which is the government of Nicaragua who want the mine built.
Respect your views RR - you seem to know what you're talking about, however a few responses...
- I don't know why B2 sold their mines, could have been any number of reasons, but seems strange that B2 were happy to offload them if there was significant value just about to be unlocked.
- Prior Calibre shareholders have been massively diluted to raise the funds for the purchase.
- MC did mention 24 months to production in the last presentation. I'd love for him to expand on that a little, since we don't yet have a concrete date for construction start.
- Toll mining deal is still just speculation, agreed, but we don't need or want a "premium" from Calibre, just a fair deal.
- Not sure what you mean by "the way MC operates". Perhaps you mean a touch too much speculation? Anything else?
- What new info are you unhappy with? Toll mining? Small-scale production? None of that seems too dreadful to me?
- Our MCap. is low, for various reasons. That on it's own makes fundraising tough. As mentioned Calibre had massive dilution to get to where they are now. Bluestone Resources's MCap is nearly 3 times ours (if I've done my sums right). It's not all about the management.
- Ross Beaty has plenty to keep him busy. His prescence here is a plus for sure, but I'm not suprised if he's got bigger fish to fry. I don't think you can read too much into that.
Just one more note to MC bc i know he's listening. Ross Beaty could have raised the $100 million to fund the purchase of B2 mines no problem IF he wanted to.
Ryan King is a solid exec and he is only the VP corporate development. The top Management team is really high echelon.
If you study their track record at Newmarket, they created serious value by increasing resource at an already producing mine that "seemed" exhausted. same as what they intend to do here. It's about immediate increase in cashflow. Not 2 years out 4 years out. Immediate. That's what creates real value in shareprice. They are going to start an aggressive 45,000m drill program to expand their resources and improve aisc. Their focus will be then to merge with an already producing company somewhere in Latin America (probably outside of Nicaragua) to form an even larger producing company probably targeting high mid tier producer.
For MC to still talk toll refininig with B2 illustrates to me that he hasnt had a meeting with Calibre yet. They wont give him a premium and they are well aware of the way MC operates. He is suprised that they raised the funds to close. Honestly wouldnt be suprised if IFC (or associated capital source) helped fund their closing. MC's office being at St. James area should KNOW what IFC as a shareholder means in the mining game. I hear IFC is a candidate to fund Lundin's Bluestone Resources mine construction in Guatemala (Keep your eye on this one and compare the progress of Bluestone vs Condor bc they are currently at the same place right now - permitted waiting for financing). Pierre Lassonde said best: The money goes to the people to build mines that have done it in the past. It was nice MC listened to this chatroom and finally updated his presentation slides.
Not too pleased with all the new info. sold half my entire position (must thank Jim Mellon for some support in the recent share price) and hoping for a break even for the remaining half. Really do hope Randy Martin can pull a rabbit out of the hat - dont know too much on the guy. Luckily I was in very early at Osino Resources to more than make up for this loss.
YES we got it all and for some reason no one is interested in placing an offer for Condor.... potential 5moz district, permits and Marks hard work =falling 25p share price...values at $11 per oz, it’s all a joke esp while others doubled if not tripled their SP with gold at $1500. Don’t know what else we need to prove to the market before we rerate to £1
Calibre Mining announced the completion of CAD102M (US$77M) equity placement 2 days ago. Proceeds go towards the US$100M acquisition of B2Gold's mines and assets in Nicaragua, due for approval at a Calibre's General Meeting on 8 October. Mako Mining completed a US$26M rights issue last month. Over US$100M in equity raised for gold mines in Nicaragua in recent weeks. Money talks. It highlights that Nicaragua is a good mining jurisdiction. Should re-focus investor attention on Condor's 2.4M oz gold resource, includes 675k oz gold reserve, fully permitted and massively undervalued at US$12 per oz gold in the ground and price to NAV of 0.15 times, all-in sustaining cash costs of US$690 oz gold (less than half the current gold price) and the 5M oz Gold District
Not sure about others thoughts, but Calibre presentation worth a look in my opinion. Lots of comparisons re price paid for El Limon/La Libertad, rates of production, AISC and potential for more/higher grades to develop. I am asking myself is what they paid good value, is CNR better placed, would $100m better be put into La India and surroundings?
Plenty of other miners attended/presented and as far as I am concerned qualifies as interesting research.
With Nicaragua milling taking a sizeable stake recently it is almost certain Condror will get something going, even if just a proof of concept with a little cashflow while the La Libertad deal is being sorted and planning for its plant. There are a good deal of ways forward that does not dilute shareholders greatly, bearing in mind around 45% are held by recently or long-term holders so dilution is almost off the table to any silly extent. Just a matter of time sadly but we have a solid foundation.
Option 2 looking quite likely to me with our new shareholder.Or a combination of the two perhaps.gold price may have a say in things.the higher the gold price goes the less incentive for calibre.
With excess capacity at the mill, La Libertad could provide a toll processing option as part of a staged development for La India to generate cash flow to and accumulate the capital the company requires to build a full mining and processing operation without exposing shareholders to significant dilution.
"A problem for us is the US$12 valuation per ounce in the ground. How are we going to generate cash flow with less dilution for our shareholders?" he said.
Child thinks the company could use contract mining and truck 4 grams per tonne material to La Libertad and produce 35,000-40,000oz with very little capital expenditure. La India hosts resources of 2.32 million ounces grading 4g/t.
"We can truck material to La Libertad for less than 1g/t. La Libertad currently processes material grading about 1.2g/t so this could be a win-win and transition Condor to being a producer," said Child.
Another option could be to start with a 1,000 tonnes per day plant to produce 40,000-45,000oz/y and later expand to about 150,000oz/y.
Having been granted a permit in 2018 to build and operate a mine at La India, Condor's work plan is focused on further de-risking the project by buying surface rights and fully engineering key components of the build such as the tailings storage facility and water management system.
The company is also permitting two feeder pits to raise La India's potential production profile above the 2,800tpd, 80,000oz/y pre-feasibility study base case to a six-digit production figure.
"With this, we will have one million ounces of resources permitted, which means we could produce 120,000oz/y for seven years," he said.
Shares in Condor Gold re trading at C45c, valuing the company at $43 million.
I wonder does anyone here have access to this article: https://www.mining-journal.com/events-coverage/news/1371797/la-libertad-the-key-to-develop-condors-la-india
I am sure nothing new, but would be nice to know what is said.
That would certainly be happy days when we do actually hit 120k ounzes and like you say after AISC of $700 we would be making $800 an ouze clear profit. Over a year $96m profit. Hoping for a good dividend when that happens.
well, fingers crossed we will hear soon, how we will materialize our world class deposit.
Ah I see! Sorry, didnt notice that at first. Well clearly wrong, unless they know something we dont.
Cant wait to see what happens here when they do start selling it though - via toll refining or some other deal..
With the big news on AIM at the moment the lack of funding for Sirius Bond Sale and the resulting SP collapse, it shows the prudence here of MC trying to keep costs low and minimise dilution with very selective fund raising. Also, the max capex for this project is only $120M on annual revenues of about 120koz x $800 = $96M..
I hope Calibre agree to a toll deal with CNR.. it would be a huge game changer here
no, it is a quotation from the description of Condor Gold on Stockhouse :
"Condor Gold PLC (T.COG) is a gold exploration and development company with a focus on Central America. The company is focused on proving a large commercial reserve on its 100 percent-owned La India Project in Nicaragua. It generates revenue from the sale of gold and silver."
saywhatnow? Ive listened to the podcast, dont think he says that anywhere! :-D
He does mention the possibility of placing stock into the TSX and generating some equity that way.. havent heard that for a while, but Stockhouse are canadian/vancouver based so i guess he wanted to give them something relevant locally..
"It generates revenue from the sale of gold and silver"
Did I miss something?????
Received this overnight but have not had chance to listen to Marks interview yet: