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Jim wouldn’t stop going on about gold and the price it could achieve. He actually restored some faith back in me I believe onions been told low lay and wait for a call as he’s made to many duck ups.
Gold price $1800ish when the assets were put up for sale. Perhaps as we approach $2200 some may consider a deal is more likely? All quiet from the ME, so perhaps they want China to move first?
Sorry Hirsch, no one on here knows what price Jim wants.
For 35-40, the deal would have been done a long time ago. JM wants more. And I'm guessing a Chinese buyer. If they want something, they want it.
I am guessing a stock deal with Calibre also. But going for 35 - 40p. I will be astonished if we see 50p for the reasons BB88 says
Nope, I'm betting on a stock deal on Calibre At a value of 30-35p Any other scenario has no practical feasibility
On that basis have you sold out, just asking out of curiosity as you’ve rung the death knell?
It's amaze me that after a year and a half in the sales process, people believe in these numbers, if it was such a hot commodity, someone would already be willing to pay, For the same reason that Condor has not been able to obtain financing, it will also not be able to obtain a buyer for the "right price" the main problem is the cost of development, combined it with a problematic jurisdiction, (to say the least) , so it's a quite a risk. in the end it doesn't matter how good the NPV looks like It's still upfront quarter of a billion USD and a few years befor you see a panny back. What is not attractive to banks is also not attractive to the buyer unless Jim Internalize like many investors here that it is a failed investment (mainly because of dumb decisions of MC.) And now we have to save what's left because soon the main concession will expire and then we'll be left with land in Nicaragua on which we can grow rice.
I'm assuming all-in at around $500m, allowing for a bit of an uplift in expected PoG and some nominal valuation of the non-fully appraised stuff. I did dig into detail last year but decided that there were so many assumptions I thought I might as well stay in the 'back of the envelope' macro world. Ultimately, it's the negotiation that will set the price rather than modelling. In my view it basically comes down to how good JM is, sitting at the other side of the table. His track record looks good so I don't expect a lowball result, but there are limits set by current market conditions.
Had we got a producing mine I reckon we would have got a lot more for those other assets. But we haven't so I don't really think their presence will have more than a marginal effect.
Does that valuation take into account Americas and Mestiza as i thought the PFS was only done on main La India prospect and this has been one of the downsides of this sales process because this is being undervalued as well as the district? Condor have done the heavy lifting bringing together all the 100s of small parcels of land so Condor have a added a lot of value from that very painfully slow process. We also need to consider the share price that is dismally low so if the price of the assets was towards 65p you would expect any buyer to consider buying some shares or going down the takeover route at 50% premium and why i feel the low share price has been a headache for getting a higher valuation. Share price is still crazy low and barely over our enterprise value so nothing for the 12 years of pain for many.
I've still not really seen anything to suggest a change to my early 2023 range expectation of 50p - 65p. Spot gold is $2182, as I write, and is way above the mid $1500s this time last year. My range also emerged from average outcomes over a five year period, with quite a wide range of gold prices as reference points. It would not surprise me to see a revised NPV above $500m at prices closer to $2000 PoG.
And yet....
The market is still the market, and Condor will need to leave a really tasty chunk of money in the pot for the buyer. After all, it will be they who need to do the work pulling the stuff out of the ground. Let's say a $500m project NPV. An 80% discount does look too much, and a 50% far too little. 60% also looks like a stretch, so I'm coming back to the 65% - 75% area. Let's say 70% off the top line, or 30% of $500m, $150m. In GBP about £117m; over 200m shares and we are around 58.5p i.e. within my expected range. Now I could be wildly out. JM could be the best negotiator on the planet and get something better. But do we really think he could get 50%? $250m or £195m; or circa 97.5p? I'm struggling with these levels, but would certainly roll the red carpet out if he gets anywhere close.
60p is not exactly a brilliant return, but it's better than 40p or 50p. I'll be disappointed if the outcome drops below 50p, and pleased if goes significantly above 60p. I just can't seem to get my head very far away from a 60p expectation, with a possible 65p and a (slightly less likely) 50p now that PoG is on a roll.
Can you use this thread to rationalise your own valuations to make it easier to see/debate perspectives.
ddd
In the next few weeks? How long have we been saying that? So I’m not sure about that but remain pretty sure that we wake up one morning to a nice surprise
Hopefully gold over $2200 soon to add impetus and Big Jim gets this over the line 'very, very soon'. Hopefully this month.
Hopefully you made a perfectly timed purchase. I think we will find out in the next few weeks.
Well played Slim, just topped up-game on
💪💪👀👀🙏🙏
Bid went quickly from 21 - 22 - 22.5 with very little volume.
What big moves geng?
22.5/23p now, so Slim is moving the market, haha
L2 Just made some big moves, must be a biggy in the background!
Well, after trying all morning to top up another 30k shares I finally managed to do it in three 10k tranches and have moved the sp up for you! Shares hard to come by in any number
If there were ever right conditions for this deal to conclude, these are the times.
The key is that Jim has turned down 5 non binding offers based on price. we could have sold Condor 12 months ago for less. GFor me for Jim to say "very very close" indicates he is comfortable with the price and we should hear this month. There looks to have been a very tight ship since December so it must be almost otl. I do not think Jim would agree any deal for less than 45p a share or £100m so while disappointing to many this would still be double todays share price. gla
Were you at the exchange sakura? If not it's just yet another thing someone said on the internet, regardless it changes nothing. We continue to wait for news of a deal.
I was referring only to the exchange between the two of them not JM generally