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Truly shocking Deani! Part of me is thinking to throw more at it but I can’t keep catching a falling knife, so I won’t. God knows where they’re gonna take this? Sub a quid?? Haven’t got the words for this market.
Could waffle all day about the SP/trading updates, I’ll limit it 2 words, 1 of them is a euphemism
Effin Joke….
God help us if we ever get a poor TU.
Monty - reported profitability for the year end has been confirmed in this morning AGM call.
I certainly never expected to see a drop below the last placing at£1.20 again. The way companies are being taken out at the moment that has to be a possibility here. Sur last week and today Medica. In the meantime I’ll gladly take the 1p divi
*with a bang*!
Solid rather than spectacular results IMO, with a continuation of good revenue etc figures in a softening market.
Good insights from the AGM as to why the sp isn’t higher - funds selling off CNIC (amongst others) to provide liquidity as investors take cash out, not helped by CNIC being one of the more liquid stocks. Sounds like growth in the sp will return with a bank once money returns to large cap tech stocks, followed by mid-caps such as CNIC. Just a case of building a position in readiness.
Just listening to the AGM, Bing should be up and running in Q3 and will be providing income. Well under price imo. Happy to keep adding.
Quarterly results are superb. Market reaction is baffling. I think CNIC is substantially undervalued and have just bought another 17,111 shares @ 116.82p.
Monty, nobody was listening first time :-))
Spell checked version ;(
Also Director dumped 1.8 million shares this month at 120p. Their reporting methods regarding Trading Updates are totally misleading - Let’s see the results and then we will see the bigger picture. Almost verges on the fraudulent right now regarding how they Cherry pick their better periods.
I moved a fair bit over to here over the past few weeks and was very confident on todays update. It didn’t disappoint but in typical AIM fashion, been booted squarely in the gonads!
Zeus Capital today reiterate their 216p DCF valuation and 20.7c EPS for this year - and they specifically state their forecasts are "conservative".
They summarise:
"We believe CentralNic’s mix of strong growth, high revenue visibility, operating leverage and high cash conversion are undervalued by its shares’ low multiples. Shares trade at only 5x 2023 EBITDA and 7x P/E, at the bottom of the peer group range. Shares also have a 2023 FCFF yield of 15% and our DCF valuation is 216p, well above the current share price of 139.5p. In our view, the current valuation is at odds with the substantial cash generation that we forecast."
Zeus note that Online Marketing growth began to slow in Q4'22, but that they "continue to believe that CentralNic’s Online Marketing business is relatively resilient to the digital advertising downturn".
It's ridiculous that CNIC don't get any re-rating after years of outperformance and then suffer when their incredible growth rates start to slow!
I benefited from SUR's takeover approach last week. I suspect there can be no better time for an approach for CNIC than now given the weakness of sterling and the undervaluation here - and with substantial cash generation too.
Zeus conclude:
"Valuation
CentralNic shares trade at c. 40% discount to peer median EV/ EBITDA multiples and c. 60% discount to adjusted peer P/E multiples. Consensus revenue and EBITDA growth expectations for the company are slightly lower than the consensus medians but not commensurate with its large multiple discounts, in our view. We believe multiples may rise as CentralNic demonstrates its ability to at least meet earnings expectations for 2023."
There seem to be concerns about numbers and net profitability but with the increased level of cash and falling debt, this looks another possible take over target. Medica has just been snapped up. SPs on AIM are often appalling and more investors will be selling up with better values in many other markets.
Also Director dumpling 1.8 million shares this month at 120p. Their reporting methods regarding Trading Updates are totally misleading - Let’s see the results and then we will see the biggest picture. Almost verges on the fraudulent right now regarding how they Cherry pick their better periods.
I guess this means that “run-rate” organic growth rate (ie the ‘latest’ organic growth rate, in the last quarter only, or as at the end of the last quarter) must be around 15% to 20%, which means ‘run-rate’ organic growth has fallen off a cliff vs. previous quarters, and a lot of the growth making up the 45% LTM organic growth rate must be from organic growth which occurred in previous quarters of the LTM period. This implies a material slowing of the core business and the share price reaction is not surprising
No references regarding if they are making a net profit, although it looks like they are as they reference the share buy backs and debt reductions. So that’s all positive. I think we will see the SP rise after the results are published if no nasties inside the hard data.
Very frustrating when this skittish market ignores very strong trading updates. It is the short term nature of the investment community these days. London markets are struggling whilst other markets around the world perform better. It is no wonder that new listings are going elsewhere. UK listed companies become targets at times like this. Is it no wonder than foreign capital is snapping up bargains in UK when our home grown investors just don’t get it. Taking a company private is no easy matter but I am sure that there are boards of small to medium listed companies looking at other options. Share buy backs in my experience rarely improve the share price materially ( yes eps) and if that is a KPI you can understand why they do it but I guess the management team should keeps their heads down and continue to grow the business and when an appetite returns for risk assets we will eventually see fair value here. Hard work!
It is utterly bizarre. UK stocks are dead.
Indeed. Never in all my years seen anything like this. Now breaking below very long term trend line. I have stocks in my portfolio which are not as good as this company but are on significantly higher ratings. I suppose if one day it breaks higher it will be rapid. But since it's taken so long there will be a barrage of selling on the way up
Sentiment towards this stock is appalling.It does not matter how good the news is sellers immediatelly come back in.No more need be said.
Dormus
CentralNic reported an "outstanding" start to the year, with Chief Executive Michael Riedl calling the three months ended March 31 the company "best-ever" first quarter. The online marketplace developer and manager expects to report gross revenue of USD194.9 million, net revenue/gross profit of USD45.8 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of USD21.3 million in the quarter. This would represent growth of 24%, 15%, and 15%, respectively, when compared to the previous year. CentralNic said it is confident the company will trade "at least" in line with current market expectations due to its expanding product range, the benefits of operating leverage, and its focus on efficient execution.
yes another excellent update
Although I’m using calendar years rather than end-Q1-end-Q1, revenue for 2021 was 410m. Add 45% and you get about 590m. That was organic revenue for 2022. The balance to the actual revenue came from acquisitions. The 25% growth refers to Q1 23 over Q1 22, ie c190/c155 (from memory).
as always :-) must be one of the safest places to be invested under present climate and divi payments soon..........
Today's Q1 update looks good to me - year on year organic growth of 45% can't be sneezed at....
Most importantly at this early stage of the year:
"Due to an expanding product range, the benefits of operating leverage, and a focus on efficient execution, the Directors remain confident that the Group will continue to trade at least in line with current market expectations"
The paragraph about the partnership with Microsoft/Bing and the use of ChatGPT and AI within CNIC's own activities is rather intriguing.
The CEO concludes CNIC have had "an outstanding start to the year". Enough said.