Technology Minerals, Canada Nickel & Goldplat presented at London South East's May live webinar. Catch up here.
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Another master investor article…
I don’t hold but this and D4T4 on my watchlists. D4T4 also dropped after good numbers!
Hello - I'm New to this share, put a sizeable investment into these yesterday....... Research suggests/everything I read that CNIC should be a very good investment over the next couple of years. Fingers crossed for a bright future...... Good luck to All..................
I guess some people assumed, rightly or wrongly, that Snap's issues also apply to these guys. But other than Spiegel, the directors confirmed that the company is 'comfortably trading in line'. And Snap was trading at 7x revenue, not 7x cashflow. IMO with CNIC you take the risk whether cashflow yield is 11% or 12% not whether you ever break even or not. Good stock for your retirement fund.
Your spot on....in fact it's pretty sad to see what goes on. Look at THG, Alphawave when they released results etc. It's completely rigged against PI's...only way to win long term is holding businesses like Centralnic in my honest opinion. It'll come good...best of luck : ).
The whole market is rigged. Look at the way OCDO has been played. Zak Mir said CNIC stock was on fire and breaking out on Monday. I think you just have to try and ignore the game playing. There are not many stocks I want to hold long term at the moment, but his is definitely one. So play away Mr MM and see where this is in 2 years or less.
Completely agree...it is absolutely rigged for this stock. Unbelievable. However...just remember that fair value is multiples of where we are now.
Don't care what anyone says, this stinks. SP down 11%, or £35m off the market cap, in two days after incredibly good results and update. Nett reported sales over buys negligible, over 1,000,000 shares reported after hours 'unknown' when a cursory look at the daily graph shows them to be virtually all buys.
Total nonsense, no idea why but market makers are walking this down back towards the recent placing price to suit themselves or their mates.
Great for some if it creates yet another buying opportunity but I'm fully invested and looking for capital growth.
Don't be. In the words of Seth Klarman in Margin of Safety....remember how irrational Mr Market is. When a stock you know is worth multiples more...treat drops as golden opportunities! Used the opportunity today to top up even more.
This isn't a Hut Group or Ferrexpo or Polymetal, where the risk of a catalyst happening / not happening could be the difference between winning and losing. This is a stock which is throwing off cash and is economically insensitive. Its superb.
very disappointed today with 8% drop
New video interview with the CEO - as bullish as should be expected given the terrific growth and outlook.
Interesting to hear him emphasise how cautious the forecasts are which are currently in the market - and even being cautious, CNIC are on a current year P/E of only 9.8:
"Opportunity for CentralNic is ‘so great’ says CEO
Ben Crawford tells Proactive that organic growth in its first quarter was a record at 53%,
Cash holdings are also at a record and net debt is now below its EBITDA number, he adds.
However, this just scratches the surface he believes and explains why CentralNic’s solution to the internet's structural inefficiencies is a huge opportunity for the company."
Who's the seller?
Absolutely delighted with yesterday's update and thought we'd get a second day of decent SP movement today. Not so though. Disappointing.
they should invent a new market anomaly for the finance textbooks with this stock....completely bizzare how it isn't at least 250p already. literally every fantastic attribute a stock could possess is possessed by CNIC. Time will deliver with this one, just a matter of holding on why they keep delivering stirling performance. A delight of a holding.
IMC presentation in 25 minuties. Will be recorded if you miss it.
CentralNic Group PLC - London-based online marketing services - Swings to quarterly profit in the first quarter ended March 31. Pretax profit at USD7.2 million versus a loss of USD1.1 million a year ago. Quarterly profit is higher than its annual 2021 profit of USD1.6 million. Quarter-on-quarter revenue rises to USD156.6 million from USD84.4 million. Not bad. Market sill in denial. Doesn't really matter as pretty sure their is an end game
Berenberg reiterate their Buy and 250p target (up from 180p over the last year):
Zeus Capital today retain their "conservative" forecasts and 195p valuation based on DCF calculations.
But they note that with these Q1 results they:
"see room for significant earnings upside. If we simply annualise Q1 EBITDA and adjust for the VGL acquisition, we estimate EBITDA could reach $80m, 19% above our forecast of $67m"
"The company’s strong Q1 performance makes full year earnings expectations appear conservative. By simply annualising Q1 EBITDA and adjusting for the VGL acquisition, we estimate EBITDA could reach $80m, 19% above our forecast of $67m. Even based on our conservative forecasts CentralNic trades at only 7.5x 2022 EBITDA, 10x P/E and 10% FCFF yield."
"Valuation: Even based on our conservative forecasts CentralNic’s strong growth and margins appear undervalued. Shares trades at only 7.5x 2022 EBITDA, 10x P/E and 10% FCFF yield despite delivering 53% organic growth and steady margin expansion."
On track to make $40M net profit FY 22.
Those are great Q1 numbers - 4.51c EPS in Q1 alone! That's around 3.6p EPS, which even with no growth would annualise at 14.4p EPS and smash forecasts.
Net debt is quickly reducing due to the usual excellent cash flows and would be down to a negligible $19m or so at the year end at this rate. Adjusted operating cash conversion is at 128%....and EBITDA as a percentage of net revenue has increased from 36% in Q1 2021 to 46% in Q1 2022.
The outlook is bullish in terms of trading in line with the newly upgraded expectations, and there's the likelihood of more acquisitions.
Yes they really know what they're talking about at Master Investor. They tipped McColls back in September which has turned out really well. Oh wait....
loaded up today...even though confirmation of earlier Q1 guidance I'm expecting a decent update to this years expectations and M&A integration...hopefully get a good bounce.
Just a reminder that the formal interim report for the three months to 31/3 will be out on Monday.
The ahead of expectations Q1 trading update has already been released:
"CentralNic further impressed the markets in late April when it said it expects to report revenues of around $156m and adjusted EBITDA of around $18m for the three months to March 2022. This came on the back of organic growth of about 51%, driven by increased demand for privacy-safe, online customer-acquisition services. On the balance sheet, cash increased to $86.9m at the quarter’s end with net debt down by $10m over three months to $65m. At the same time, cash conversion continued at over 100% of profits. This performance meant that management expected to materially exceed market expectations at the time.
Growth and value
Shares in CentralNic currently trade at 130p, up by 136% on the company’s IPO price of 55p but off all-time highs of 150p seen in November last year. Analysts at research house Edison are looking for revenues to grow by 40% for the full 2022 financial year to $573.5m, with normalised pre-tax profits expected to be up by 60% at $51.1m. On Edison’s earnings forecasts for the year the shares currently trade on a multiple of just over 10 times, a figure which looks very cheap for a business with such a strong track record. The more relevant price-to-earnings growth multiple is very low at 0.33 times, with a figure of one often considered to be fair value for a growth company. On that basis the shares could treble."
Tipped overnight on Master Investor - the writer believes CNIC could treble from here:
According to the recently released IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report, digital advertising revenues in the US soared by 35% to $189bn in 2021. Taking advantage of this growth was AIM-listed CentralNic (CNIC) an online marketing-services company which is also growing quickly by acquisition.
The company was founded in 2004 as a specialist domain industry registry but today it is a developer and operator of software platforms which provide web-presence services to customers worldwide. Operating through the online presence and online marketing segments, it provides the tools required to create websites, use email and secure business online. Clients include domain-name resellers such as GoDaddy and corporate customers who have large portfolios of domain names, as well as small businesses which typically hold a few domains and use email and hosting services.
CentralNic listed on AIM in 2013 and has doubled in size in six out of the last seven years through a combination of organic growth, winning new clients, introducing new services and its acquisition strategy. The company’s market cap has gone from £32.5m at IPO to £381m today, with annual revenues up from around $4m to $410.5m over the last nine years. This is also a highly cash-generative and predictable business, with the company earning recurring revenue from the sale of internet domain names and hosting on an annual subscription basis, with cash paid upfront. In the last financial year only 1% of total sales came from non-recurring revenue products, providing great visibility of revenues.
It’s been a great year for the company so far, including the main highlight of completing its largest acquisition to date. In March, CentralNic finalised the purchase of German online marketing business VGL Verlagsgesellschaft for an initial €67m in cash. This was financed by £45m of new equity and a €21m bond issue. VGL (for short) is used by the world’s leading German e-commerce companies to acquire customers via high-quality content websites and for using media-buying technology. It made revenues of $55.3m in 2021 and the deal is expected to be double-digit earnings enhancing in 2022 even before any synergies are realised. Despite the size of the deal, the market-consolidation strategy continues, with acquisition opportunities continually evaluated in what is a large, global and fragmented market."
Cheers - another very, very confident interview. A bargain at these levels imho on a P/E barely above 10.