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Well, I did buy this morning, but of course didn’t stand a chance with my cheeky-chancer’s 135.1p opportunistic limit-buy-order I posted of setting late last night.
Bought this morning for 141.75p
- Pleased with that, even though waiting until the afternoon would have knocked another 2p off.
Incidentally, anyone who’s intrigued, but unfamiliar with, my mention of the RSI indicator in my post below, should be aware it shouldn’t be used in isolation; it’s an additional tool to (but can be amazingly predictive short term) and must be used as confirmation with other TA indicators and not a sole decision-making tool.
During the morning whilst the SP was jigging around the low 140p+ it had the effect of lifting the RSI out of oversold and rested a smidgen above the 30% cut-off threshold @ 31.3%
But it's rare an oversold trigger gets done and dusted with in 24 hours and by the close of business it had fallen back into oversold territory and breaking through the 30% threshold once again and is now lying @ 26%
(See that? That's not as deep as Friday's 18%, so don't want to hang about the 138p/139p's too long, lest it starts translating into 'normal.')
Looks like it could take some days for bargain hunters to lift it clear.
Interestingly, Friday was the FIRST TIME this year that CNCT broke down through the crucial 30% oversold barrier setting off a clear oversold trigger alert. It came close in late April approx, but never actually broke down through.
Conversely at no time this year has the RSI breached the overbought 70% threshold. It rested just on it, in mid Feb, but never stepped over the mark. So that oversold trigger breakthrough on Friday was quite significant.
As it stands tonight, 1st support is reading as 136p and if it breaks through that - 2nd support is showing as 133.25p
Those two troops will be on guard all day tomorrow, so if you think it could drift lower than that tomorrow, it's going to need signiificant selling volume to break past those two. Unfortunately volume was above average again, today.
On the bright side, if it breaks upwards, 1st resistance to challenge the rise is @ 143.5p and the 2nd resistance ceiling is 148.5p
Not expecting much until the ex-divi period is lifted on 10th July. You can't fight against trends and the trend is against long term holders for the moment - which means it's a buying opportunity if you believe there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. To that end, I've left my original 135.1p limit buy-order in place.
Don’t be surprised if the SP continues to whipsaw until clear of the current Ex-Dividend period which doesn’t end until July 10th
This share price has been dull and frustrating since Tuffnells acquisition...can't wait till I break even and sell this thing.
....if I ever break even that is !
Maybe the floor was hit Friday, time will tell though
Set a buy order limit.
Forgot LSE prices can be wonky. On my broker's site the spread is much more reasonable than the near 6% shown over the weekend on here that I complained about below - the spread on my broker's is showing as 134.75p / 136p Ahh that's better.
(Cont pt 2) - Knew i wouldn't fit in one post!
All the TA indicators - all of them - are screaming bad news after Friday’s performance, and possibly worse to come. The long term SMA’s have been breached. I even used the litle known indicator Aroom 25 - a sort of glorified MACD oscillator, and all showed the momentum falling off a cliff.
And yet I’m putting in a computerised buy-order in after finishing up here, in readiness for tomorrow. Here's why -
As fundamentals are telling us nothing about the reason for the heavy decline on Friday, I turned to a supposedly swing trader’s favourite tool - the RSI (Relative Strength Indicator). It too showed momentum dropping through the floor.
Now the RSI, although marked 0 - 100%, (it measures the timing of each average over several days, rarely touches either of those two extremes).
Anything above 70% is rated as overbought and inevitably there’s a retrace. (That’s the question, is this occasion a simple to recover from retrace, or worse a reversal?)
Anything that falls below 30% is rated as oversold and thus everyone who was going to sell - has sold, and is regarded as relatively cheap - and thus brings out the bargain hunters - (all in the absence of fundamental news of course).
Well, midweek it was showing a comfortable no-worries 50% for CNCT
After Friday close the RSI for CNCT is down past 30% and came to a halt at….
…. 18.77% !
That is seriously low.
Just like the other ‘bad’ readings all other TA indicators are showing.
Only thing is the RSI reading is so low - it’s screaming that it’s way OVERSOLD. So in the absence of any fundamental news it’s a reasonable bet that the SP will soon be regarded as cheap. But how soon?
I’m splitting my designated buy order into smaller units, in case I’m wrong on this. For starters I’m not putting up with that massive spread and will put in an offer of 135.1p.
See what happens tomorrow.
The upside of buying in smaller parcels of shares is that you can add to it, whatever the true direction the SP is destined for as the days/week progress..
Sorry for the long-winded post but I’m putting my thoughts down here for myself really, so I can check back on my reasoning. vs pure luck. This is never going to fit in one post :) So I’ll stop now.
b33661 @ “anyone have any idea at all wtf happened here today. Off nearly 8% on the close!!! Can't dig up any news yet but must be something??”
Those 3 points summing up what all, who are interested in CNCT, are thinking about Friday’s close.
I’ve been pondering the first point all weekend and came up with nothing. First off bear in mind CNCT is still in EX-Dividend period until the 10th July, so is unlikely to respond positively until after that date. Especially as this is a big divi % yielding share and big divi yield shares always take a sizeable, but temporary, hit during Ex-Divi period.
But that sudden end of day near 8% drop - in one day! Geez. Yes, makes you wonder if some bad news has leaked out to some in the right place at the right time. If so there should be an RNS on Monday.
After putting this Friday’s performance through some TA indicators I’m betting there won’t be. (Come to that in a moment). So, I’m (provisionally) ruling out bad news in the pipeline
Incidentally checked the FCA site and there are no visible (above 0.5% stake) hedge fund shorters involved in this share, or if there was on Friday, it’ll take another 3 days to show up on the FCA site. But historically there’s been none registered to date. So rule that out too.
The last 4 years or so, show nicely improving P&L accounts with gross profit improving every year ( but from static income). And best of all INMO is the £20m cash at the last annual set of accounts. I dislike investing in any company showing under £10m cash - too risky. So that £20m was lovely jubbly to see - but has it gone?
For instance when I discovered Coms had only £900k left in cash I posted on that forum that I now held the view, that such a low figure meant it was close to insolvency and was roundly abused by all, for spouting nonsense.
I sold up at about 2.8p a few months back, after discovering the low cash on hand, after previously buying at 3.5p
- And a few weeks after that, the truth emerged about the accounts, the CEO was booted out and Coms crashed to a fraction of a penny - trading still, about 0.6p now.
I made a smaller, bearable, loss rather than an 80%+ loss.
The last interim results for CNCT talked of £16m cash; down probably because of the Tufnells acquisition - but still good, although that was paid for with a rights issue and extended loan facilities, yes? So, cash still ace.
Looking at the volume on Friday revealed it to be mega @ 469,000 - way, way, above the average of only 114,000.
Yet 277,000 of that volume occurred in the UT trade that took place in the 5 minutes after closing.
And total volume bought is showing as about triple that of sold - yet the SP is down into the 130p’s after closing in the low 140p’s ???
And that spread between bid and ask of almost 6% !
All the TA indicators - all of them - are screaming bad news after Friday&
Tomohawk @ "Big buy late on though."
Can't see any. Did you mean the 16:35pm after hours auction of £376K ?
Look closely and you'll see it's marked as a UT trade. (Uncrossing Trade).
So in all likelyhood the total of the closed auction period usually of many small trades all totalled into one book entry.
Usually happens when the SP is going crazy and they try to stablise it in a closed period auction.
me shout last at the time of this last turnaround on the basis of a super bullish descending wedge breakout but she's heading for the bottom of that shape again so you've gotta think that it's make or break down around high 120s if seen - break 128 and it looks like curtains for her and she could halve from there but bounce again from there and it's still a viable coin toss as to where she goes - whopping targets if she makes it ...
The last weeks chart suggests that the Tuffnells acquisition and the link up with Amazon may not be the game changer that the market had perceived.Big buy late on though.
anyone have any idea at all wtf happened here today. Off nearly 8% on the close!!! Can't dig up any news yet but must be something??
hope they havnt bought a lemon with tufnells.
It is always nice to see a director showing enough confidence in a company to invest their own money...
Good volume, more than twice as many buys as sells,
sp nudging up...
& yield still good at 6%
....26 week financial results to 28 February, 2015
...Ex-Dividend date = 11/06/2015
& yet another positive write up for CNCT...
Great article Pinkers, thanks :-)
I added CNCT to my "HOT DUCKS" Dividend Portfolio (See LSE General Chat) just prior to the Ex-Divi' date...
& Happy to hold:-)
Funnily enough I have GLEN, FENR & MNZS on my watch list as well....
...I wanted FENR at sub 180 pre the Ex-Divi' date but just missed out, as yee might well have seen on the B/b?
Connect shares slide on falling revenue:
Connect Group, the largest newspaper and magazine distributor in the U.K., reported falling revenue and a disappointing performance from its education stationery business, sending shares down more than 5%. The company reported a 1.5% dip in sales for the 19 week period ending January 10, compared to the same period last year. Revenue from distributing newspapers fell 2.8% on a like-for-like basis. Connect Group was formerly called Smiths News but changed its name to Connect last year. Connect is still predominantly a U.K.-focused newspaper and magazine distribution business with 84% of group revenue and 77% of operating profits coming from that part of the business. The newspaper distribution business is declining but it is also profitable and generates lots of cash. What’s more, the company is using that cash to diversify the business. Book business Bertrams was purchased out of the Woolworth’s administration in 2009. Connect said revenue fell 1% during the period in a very competitive market. Connect expanded into school stationery through the purchase of Consortium in 2012. The school stationery business reported a disappointing 2% fall in revenue when analysts had been expecting 5% growth during the period. The company announced a move into parcel delivery through the acquisition of Tufnells on December 19. The distribution group said it would also use its existing fleet of vans and lorries to deliver Amazon parcels as well. The shares trade on 8 times forecast earnings of 18.2p per share, and offer a forecast dividend yield of 5.7%. The market expectations don’t look too demanding for the year ended August 2015. Connect Group at 139p-7.25p Questor Says ‘Hold’
"Total Group revenues decreased 1.5% year on year, with overall performance broadly in line with management expectations"
Liberum Capital reiterate Buy at 180p (are they the house broker?)
Might fall below 52 week low, (135p) if so could well be worth an add
RNS 12th Nov
Anyone know anything about this??
No I mean they are STILL looking cheap, even after the rise that day!
Do you mean they WERE looking cheap ? You've posted after today's 18% rise in sp.
The PE is 8.7 and the yield has increased to 5.9%. Superb!