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Micahel Fraers has been in this for years. There is no way he will allow it to fail. I would have thought that he would have done everything that he can do minimise risk of rejection.
Just Covid that has lead to delay.
I am also in ACP - graphite project in Tanzania - similar situation, but in ACP's case, waiting for ML. Once again Covid.
I agree LW, I don't think there's much risk to EIA, but @colourblind is right to point out if it fails so is cmet. On this project anyway.
The thing is here once it is granted I don't see anything, currently, to stop everything else happening. Long may global demand hold up, though supply does appear tight to the end of the decade.
The financing thing is no big issue, though people are right to point out that it hasn't been finalised.
I don't think 2 is much of a risk . All the noises from CMET are that the govt dept responsible for the EIA have been very supportive - and let's face it, CMET would know what the Govt thinking is as they have been in liaison with them for months. And only last week CMET stated that the EIA is now very close. The delay has been solely down to Covid-19.
Furthermore, we are about to start drilling, and would not be doing so if there were problems.
colorblind - that is a really good summary. thanks for that
The thing is, AIM is hype. Always over promising and under delivering. Everyone always promotes the stock more than they should.
I really hope this time it's different (there goes the saying!!) but it's hard not to be tempted in at these prices: -
1. Very illiquid stock float compared to others, it's not been diluted the hell out of yet via placings and large proportion of stock in private hands.
2. EIA is imminent (could be denied then if so this is worthless, seems very unlikely but that's the play here).
3. Not much risk of mining issues, it's literally digging up sand using diggers, filtering it and putting the nice sand back in the ground, it's about as simple as it gets so none of the rubbish that OIL miners on AIM can get (see UKOG).
4. Very high mineral prices atm, all time highs in fact.
5. Cost to set up port and extraction units might be quite high, may be a placing though they seem to suggest there won't be and it's funded via offtake discussions.. Skeptical about this but a small placing wouldn't be the worst thing once revenue streams start being estimated.
So what's the downside here? No EIA, bang this is over. Trying to estimate future pricing, even at basic multiples it's got to be worth anywhere from 20 to 40p with EIA in place and mining, upper limit is anyones guess, very little can go wrong with the mining as far as I can tell. Maybe some delays with the port and setting up offices/customs etc might be a drag on price? Nothing that can't be overcome.
40p or 50p would be amazing for me and should be doable.
DRJJ, yup I mean I wasn't sweating at being underwater at these levels because in the very near future I believe, like yourself, we'll be in excess of 40p. So I always remember my broker's yelling me years ago when I traded commodities, 'don't be a dick for a tick'.
Sure it might dip again, but how much by now? Is it worth missing out?
Currently 14p average @paul which could be better. I averaged down at the wrong time and cash dried up. Still have bit more but waiting to see where we go this month.
I know this will hit 40p very soon (this year easily) it’s just how greedy I want to be to average down.??
I only have three stocks in portfolio and this is biggest one by long way.
Contrary to the SP move stated by LSE - the SP actual moved upwards with dummy test showing ask price 10.9p
Nice!
Yeah I agree LW, when this moves it'll go quick and there's so much positive news lined up over the next six months I expect we will be significantly higher, multiples, within a reasonably short period. After all, production in H1 2022.
I don’t think it will take all that long to move tbh. I think only 25% shares are in public hands?, so when it does move I think it will be quick and over a shorter period. We saw what happened last Friday and that was just an interview. Next RNS is likely to be a trigger IMO and I think we will get it this month.
The one thing I was a little concerned about was around Country Risk as there was a possibility Sri Lanka may have defaulted on it's $1bn bond - but they repaid that and that for me reduces the negativity future foreign investors may have had to invest in CMET. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-25/sri-lanka-to-repay-1-billion-bond-monday-ending-default-threat)
WRT the CMET Eastern Sands project, I've never been anything but bullish (as y'all know) since I researched it, especially since it had been so derisked in the five years work before they came to market.
I may get better returns if say someone like ECR Minerals make a big strike but this is almost my safe conservative play in the mining sector.
I don't expect we'll remain at this level for long - two more boxes to be ticked and we'll be off.
Better than me. 13.3p is mine. I am looking to get some funds available to make another top up soon. I'm expecting (quite cautiously) that this will head towards 20p+ again in the next 6 months and 15p+ in the next 0-3 months. Could in reality be substantially more but depends on the news flow as always.
Oh sorry yeah my AVG now is about 12.5p or so
Still underwater but manageable.
DRJJ, I would definitely pile in more now, but I'm up to my limit (2.1m).
Don't see much downside here, do you?
What you averaging at now Paul? I am thinking of going again to get the average down
@colorblind... "That's why I averaged down so many times..." ditto. I basically doubled up
I agree. That's why I averaged down so many times to get back in profit should it do so. I doubt it'll get back to the hype prior immediately but August should be instrumental and get us at least towards 20p as a minimum.
We could easily rally 50% from here, to 15p, which would just put us back to where we were previously when we thought the EIA tick in the box was imminent. After that tick, honestly I don't see any reason for it not to double.